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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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A light 1-3" event on a weekend is perfectly good for skiing, so I'll take it.

ETA: Just saw the Sunday-Monday followup :o 

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice little event on the GFS.  But I'm waiting for the debbies to complain about light snow during the day in mid February not sticking to the Beltway.  

yeah, where is that JI guy?

snowed in or something?

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Just now, stormtracker said:

lol, how is that snow at 120 with that low position

departing low keep heights lower behind it?  just a wag

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Looks like we never lose frozen for the second storm lol.  Hard to buy with that low position however.  Just need a couple more days to get that south as well.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Looks like we never lose frozen for the second storm lol.  Hard to buy with that low position however.  Just need a couple more days to get that south as well.

potentially fun weekend ahead.  whodathunk it

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

A light 1-3" event on a weekend is perfectly good for skiing, so I'll take it.

ETA: Just saw the Sunday-Monday followup :o 

I'll be in Deep Creek this weekend to ski...would be great for the ski resorts if the GFS played out verbatim especially on a holiday weekend.

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For folks wondering why the second wave is still snow with a nw track of the primary, it's a good insitu CAD setup because of tight spacing. The trailing wave isn't very strong and doesn't have beefy midlevel circulation so the antecedent airmass survives. My guess is if there's 2 close spaced waves they are more likely to take similar tracks. Especially if the gfs is too weak with the first one. Beef that up a little and the boundary sags more. Interesting times. 

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice little event on the GFS.  But I'm waiting for the debbies to complain about light snow during the day in mid February not sticking to the Beltway.  

It’s gonna suck for all those that live on the beltway!

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@Bob Chill...Yeah, the 2nd low on Sunday is weaker and as you say we have CAD in place behind the previous system (closely spaced).  Also, check the 10m winds, they are easterly to slightly north of east as that low treks by, and then reforms off the coast.  They never go southeast or southerly.  And they are pretty light.

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Today is still Tuesday 

Good because the CMC is north with wave 1 and we need the extra time to get right

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Out there in time with having two systems ahead of it but there is a serious CAD leading into the system next week.  

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Weakness shows up over the lakes but its a pretty big thump before we lose the mids.

gfs_mslpa_us_31.png

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That third wave though...moisture bomb in the making..several runs in a row.  Now what form it takes.....

It takes the beatdown in our yard form before temp problems. Weenie runs are hitting on the regular. Wonder how we fail on everything. I mean I know we can do it. Just not sure the most efficient way yet. 

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Out there in time with having two systems ahead of it but there is a serious CAD leading into the system next week.  

The flow in the NW Atlantic, the boundary and the indices at that time dictate that might be a big one. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That third wave though...moisture bomb in the making..several runs in a row.  Now what form it takes.....

And that's the interesting thing here...regardless of snow or mix solutions, that moisture bomb has been showing up on both the Euro and Gfs pretty consistently the last couple days!

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It takes the beatdown in our yard form before temp problems. Weenie runs are hitting on the regular. Wonder how we fail on everything. I mean I know we can do it. Just not sure the most efficient way yet. 

We will.  No way we get a triple shot with no problems.   It's fun to look at tho.     I think we score with one though.

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