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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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Eps still has 17 members miss south with a wave next week. Target is our area. Mean went up through day 10. Down slightly through 15 because day 10-15 degraded some with a stronger SE ridge. 

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Going by the 00Z runs and we are looking to have a very interesting and active stretch coming up starting the latter half the weekend which should stretch 5/6 days or so before we see somewhat of a relax. Through that stretch we see roughly 2" worth of precip running up the east coast on the GEFS and and roughly 1 1/4" showing on the EPS (For some reason the EPS quite often underplays precip at range). We are seeing the boundary set up through the general Mid-Atlantic through this stretch with multiple pieces of energy streaming through. Now how everything plays out and whether it is mostly wet or white is probably anyone's guess at this time. With such tight spacing between the different pieces of energy/systems much will be highly dependent on the interactions/timings between these features and/or the setup left in the wake of a departing system.

At this time the sanest approach is to take these systems one at a time and get a handle on that before moving to the next as I am sure the models will be throwing out some varying and interesting solutions through this stretch. The system that will be leading the way will be our weekend system. Now the models were initially showing this as just a cutter as all the NS energy was diving down into the central US and the 50/50 created from today's departing storm was a non-factor as it was moving out too quickly. Pretty much a big Fail for the Mid-Atlantic in regards to any frozen. But the last day of runs we saw the EPS and the GFS ops make a fairly significant shift (The 00Z GEFS has now also has strong hints of this change as well) and these changes actually have made the latter half of the weekend into Monday interesting. What we have seen is instead of more NS energy dumping into the developing trough and reinforcing and deepening it that energy is now being left behind. So what we now have is a much shallower drop of that trough and it is moving into S Canada creating suppression along the East Coast as well as driving colder air towards and into our region. The left behind energy is dropping down southward behind this trough creating a shortwave within the flow. At this point the timing/placement on these two features is such that the left over energy is suppressed with little room to amplify as it runs through the region. But it is definitely something to keep an eye because it wouldn't take much in the way of changes to make that a fairly significant storm. 

Beyond that possible storm above I wouldn't want to even speculate about other possible storms. Needless to say I think we will have some interesting tracking ahead of us.

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Gefs 6z shifting south next week. Implies big central VA hit. I like seeing waves south at that range. This isn’t a big blocking situation. These tend to trend north. 

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6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Did you get more snow overnight?  Hope you have safe travels to Hopkins today. 

Another 1/2” maybe. Looks like sleet and freezing rain now. 29 degrees. 

Will be careful. Thanks. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs 6z shifting south next week. Implies big central VA hit. I like seeing waves south at that range. This isn’t a big blocking situation. These tend to trend north. 

Looks like the models are advertising a relax heading into next weekend. GEFS is in and out with it where as the EPS holds onto it for several days. Probably not even worth thinking hard about it considering the coming active stretch will probably go a long way in determining what we do in fact see.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looks like the models are advertising a relax heading into next weekend. GEFS is in and out with it where as the EPS holds onto it for several days. Probably not even worth thinking hard about it considering the coming active stretch will probably go a long way in determining what we do in fact see.

Given the mjo progression I tend to buy the gefs over the eps day 10-15 right now. 

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82520AD6-F00B-4C2C-B2BB-632F59EBB37C.thumb.png.0057477ccc79a467cdeb834318ba7d2b.png

This actually matches the gefs and the mjo soi analogs better than the eps look. Eps bias “leaving too much in the west” maybe. I don’t know but considering it’s been correcting east in the medium range I’m disregarding it’s reversion to a huge eastern ridge until I see signs it’s real. Eps has been awful past day 10 all winter. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the mjo progression I tend to buy the gefs over the eps day 10-15 right now. 

I guess we will see. Looking at the MJO on the different models and their tendencies over the last few runs I really think they are fighting the progression into 8 and 1. 

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How about that -23.34  SOI today!

Eoro has a pretty major ice storm again for next week.  Over 1" qpf with temps well below freezing....especially NW of 95.  A slightly colder version of yesterday's 12z run.

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

How about that -23.34  SOI today!

Eoro has a pretty major ice storm again for next week.  Over 1" qpf with temps well below freezing....especially NW of 95.  A slightly colder version of yesterday's 12z run.

Snow first? 

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Euro looks pretty decent for Saturday.  Daytime snow with temps right around freezing, ~0.5 QPF for DC.  Could be a nice event. 

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16 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Looks like 2-4" areawide before the flip.

that could be something.  I always thought if we are to get a warning level ice event we need snow first...and locked in cold below 25F.  as leesburg said nothing to see at 30-32 unless at night and coming off a really cold air mass. That said snow would be better and more fun.  will take what I can get. 

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37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I guess we will see. Looking at the MJO on the different models and their tendencies over the last few runs I really think they are fighting the progression into 8 and 1. 

Those mjo charts just try to measure the convection locations. Problem is it’s not linear in its progression and so as new areas of convection develop sometimes that chart will jump around. But track the subsidence. By day 10+ all guidance has high pressure and subsidence centered over the maritime continent. Exactly where we want it and expect it in a nino. What convection there is is centered either east of the dateline or in the western Indian Ocean. Also where we want it. I think too much is being made of those charts, as HM said. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Those mjo charts just try to measure the convection locations. Problem is it’s not linear in its progression and so as new areas of convection develop sometimes that chart will jump around. But track the subsidence. By day 10+ all guidance has high pressure and subsidence centered over the maritime continent. Exactly where we want it and expect it in a nino. What convection there is is centered either east of the dateline or in the western Indian Ocean. Also where we want it. I think too much is being made of those charts, as HM said. 

I agree. I find too often people look at indice and charts without actually eyeballing for themselves what the look actually is. But in this case I do think they reflect the uncertainty that the models have in regards to the tropical forcings. So though the maps may show what we may want to see at this time, we are still in fact talking 10+ days away. Now I haven't been following the MJO like you have and following the maps with tropical convection but from some of what I have seen, haven't we had several instances this winter where the convection was showing up in 8/1 in the long range only to move away from it in the shorter ranges? Not only that but weren't the MJO forecasts also very ambiguous during these periods?

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36 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Euro looks pretty decent for Saturday.  Daytime snow with temps right around freezing, ~0.5 QPF for DC.  Could be a nice event. 

man the FV3 looks good for Saturday.  I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype.  but Saturday could feature some snow. 

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9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I agree. I find too often people look at indice and charts without actually eyeballing for themselves what the look actually is. But in this case I do think they reflect the uncertainty that the models have in regards to the tropical forcings. So though the maps may show what we may want to see at this time, we are still in fact talking 10+ days away. Now I haven't been following the MJO like you have and following the maps with tropical convection but from some of what I have seen, haven't we had several instances this winter where the convection was showing up in 8/1 in the long range only to move away from it in the shorter ranges? Not only that but weren't the MJO forecasts also very ambiguous during these periods?

The mjo has been in a fairly consistent pattern. Of course that’s in hindsight. The first wave of winter initiated around phase 1/2 and propagated strongly and slowly (with lots of stalls) through 3-4-5-6-7 then died in 8. The next wave initiated in 3/4 and slowly propagated to 6/7 where it died. This wave is initiating in 7 and heading into 8. According to Don there is historical basis for a stall or recycle from 8 to 7 before the wave advances to 1. So seeing that isn’t too bothersome.

Seems a normal thing. I scanned through some past winter mjo charts and he seems to be right with that loop there a regular occurrence. Must be a tendency as waves shift east of New Zealand they die and a new wave reforms northwest before moving east.  

By this point last time the signs the mjo wave was dead and reforming near the maritime continent was apparent. This time the squabble in guidance is wrt exac convection locations over the central pac and amplitude. The maritime continent is the center of subsidence and high pressure through the next 2+ weeks. No sign of that changing yet. 

The seasonal mjo trend has been slow and amplified. Slow is good here since the forcing is where we want. Keep it tooling around in 8/1/2 until climo runs out in about 5 weeks. 

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs really stepping up the blocking look the last few runs. 

Given the SOI crash, a possibly more coherent Nino-ish Pac look, and the fact that we are in late winter, it might just verify for once.

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18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I agree. I find too often people look at indice and charts without actually eyeballing for themselves what the look actually is. But in this case I do think they reflect the uncertainty that the models have in regards to the tropical forcings. So though the maps may show what we may want to see at this time, we are still in fact talking 10+ days away. Now I haven't been following the MJO like you have and following the maps with tropical convection but from some of what I have seen, haven't we had several instances this winter where the convection was showing up in 8/1 in the long range only to move away from it in the shorter ranges? Not only that but weren't the MJO forecasts also very ambiguous during these periods?

I think Don S was saying even as  the MJO was progressing it was fading.  And yes some MJO tools  just forcus on the standing wave.  psu's reference about the look with  subsidence

is spot on,  I love the SOI this AM as mentioned

 

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

man the FV3 looks good for Saturday.  I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype.  but Saturday could feature some snow. 

Real good for sure. Fresh cold smoke in the daytime. What a perfect Saturday that could potentially be. I’m all for the weeniest model as long as the Euro (and others) got its back. :)

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10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

man the FV3 looks good for Saturday.  I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype.  but Saturday could feature some snow. 

Definitely how this can work. The initial trough and associated cutter run up and create confluence over top initially to drive the left behind NS energy south. Then start relaxing in time to allow that energy to amplify as it moves east. But it will be all about timing if this is how it plays out. The confluence stays to long and we have a suppressed weaker system. It departs to soon and we probably get rained on as the system runs through our region or even to the west.

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Next week’s chance still there? I am hunting big storms if I am gonna get to climo.

Yeah we are running out of time to nickel and dime our way. A couple solid warning events or one biggie would get me to climo.

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How about that -23.34  SOI today!
Eoro has a pretty major ice storm again for next week.  Over 1" qpf with temps well below freezing....especially NW of 95.  A slightly colder version of yesterday's 12z run.
Psu nailed the soi forecast
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There is going to be a lot of tracking in here.  It might be time to break off the Saturday threat into a different thread. Maybe after 12z.  

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

These one off snow events will allow dt to claim victory about winter not returning in the east....book it

I wish he cancelled winter in December... Seems like things started turning interesting just as he did

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

These one off snow events will allow dt to claim victory about winter not returning in the east....book it

Has Richmond had snow since the early Dec event? He mad.

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