Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,341
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    snow01
    Newest Member
    snow01
    Joined
Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

I know it was only 7 days but phase 8 in January shifted the trough into the east and we got two snows out of it. Definitely wasn’t what he implies. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

We will have to see about the MJO per Don S ( not sure the GFS and GEFA are the best tools to use here for the MJO ) 

However lets keep that SOI diving please.  I like  MINUS 40 please. 

The below post is from Don S courtesy 33andrain 

 

A storm will likely bring snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain to parts of the region tomorrow.

 

The SOI was -19.02 today. That's the lowest figure since January 4, 2019 when the SOI was -20.30.

 

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.205. That is the highest value since September 25, 2018 when the AO was +2.265. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.341.

 

For the second consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO was in Phase 7 today and near Phase 8.

 

Assuming the model initialization is accurate, it would likely reach Phase 8 in the next day. This is faster than what had previously been modeled and could result in a lag before the atmosphere responds.

 

Afterward, the outlook remains somewhat uncertain. The historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7 from Phase 8 prior to any move to Phase 1. Both the GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS are now showing such an outcome.

 

For now, it remains more likely than not that the MJO will either be in Phase 7 or 8 at mid-month.

 

A fairly stormy pattern is now evolving. A complex system will likely bring a period of snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, then rain across the region later tonight and through tomorrow. Accumulations of 1"-3" in Philadelphia and 2"-4" in such cities as Newark and New York are likely. Well north and west of those areas (including Scranton and Binghamton) and eastward across parts of New England, including the snow-starved Boston area (where just 2.3" snow has been recorded to date), the potential exists for 3"-6".

 

This likely won't be the last snowfall threat for February. With some of the guidance suggesting the development of the strongest westerly wind burst of the winter, the SOI could fall even farther in coming days. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. In short, the subtropical jet could become increasingly active during the second half of February.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum

 

Brooklynwx

 

"The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases."

 

1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada.

 

497776501_02111918zgefs500mbanom168-360.gif.64e3824307d09730c6a519f64c3df13f.gif

 

This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame:

 

1870127578_02111918zgefs2mtempanom168-312.gif.210dbdc1da3b5824d3ccab2be2f490f3.gif

 

There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase."

 

2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. 

 

258817622_02111918zgefs500mbanom312-384.gif.2186282501e3657b94a7790a5204e000.gif

 

Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition.

 

Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. "

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum

 

Brooklynwx

 

"The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases."

 

1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada.

 

497776501_02111918zgefs500mbanom168-360.gif.64e3824307d09730c6a519f64c3df13f.gif

 

This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame:

 

1870127578_02111918zgefs2mtempanom168-312.gif.210dbdc1da3b5824d3ccab2be2f490f3.gif

 

There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase."

 

2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. 

 

258817622_02111918zgefs500mbanom312-384.gif.2186282501e3657b94a7790a5204e000.gif

 

Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition.

 

Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. "

Lol that’s exactly the progression I posted earlier today. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Feels like three camps...snow and cold potential coming...winters basically over....and Bob

You are on a roll !!! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z EPS wants nothing to do with snow in DC this weekend.  Handful of members give DC snow.  

Prob need too much too fast for this weekend to work out so not a surprise. Things are in a bit of flux making it tricky to know exactly what this weekend will look like. With the deep western trough spacing needs to be really tight and that's how the Fv3 makes it work. I'm actually pretty surprised how much the 12z guidance changed. Very sudden. The big wound up rainer appeared to be locked in on all guidance. Now it's much more complicated and we're only talking 5-6 days out. 

Interested to see what 0z does. If there's big changes again, already low confidence will get even lower. Then there's next week... Lots of questions and few answers. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol that’s exactly the progression I posted earlier today. 

The new weeklies support that progression.  Not a huge blocking signal but gets the trough into the east and looks good into mid-March.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Feels like three camps...snow and cold potential coming...winters basically over....and Bob

You need to come over and shovel my driveway as a thank you for making it snow in your yard. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Feels like three camps...snow and cold potential coming...winters basically over....and Bob

What about Bob?  

Great movie...just finished Groundhog Day. Maybe I’ll do that one tomorrow night. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Hmmmm

What about Bob is okay but I always get really annoyed

Kinda like drop dead fred but not as strong

Bill Murray is completely annoying in most movies. That's not going to go over too well with most.

Nothing else to add....

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Bill Murray is completely annoying in most movies. That's not going to go over too well with most.

Nothing else to add....

Lol I like his personality. He seems like a snarky smartass like me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More pretty drastic changes for the weekend on the gfs...looks like it’s going to be a hit through 114

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

LOL, I'm just now seeing the FV3 for this weekend.  Sadly this is the Ji of models. 

His older brother just joined him.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well damn, we might have really backed into something here.

Interesting times. Tight spacing is playing some havoc. Not sure if the weekend can work out but we're certainly in the game right now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty wild stuff.  Waves flying around fast and furious.  Busy tracking ahead one way or another.  

No kidding--Pretty much the wild wild east on the models today--total free-for-all, lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interesting times. Tight spacing is playing some havoc. Not sure if the weekend can work out but we're certainly in the game right now. 

The way the GFS is shaping up, we may have the sacrifice the storm we all were watching next week for the Weekend deal(s).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×