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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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The thing I don't like is that it's either a cutter or straight out to the Atlantic, more or less. The orientation of the flow doesn't appear to be conducive to what we really want. How about a storm that gathers some steam in the GOM and rides up the east coast? Not NE/E out to see.

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5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

How about a storm that gathers some steam in the GOM and rides up the east coast? Not NE/E out to see.

Classic miller As are rare and we need the -pna to back off before anything like that will happen. We could get really lucky and pull something like that off but my guess is very unlikely unless a ridge in the west builds. Hopefully that shifts better later this month. Both the gefs and eps build it in the d10-15 range

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Classic miller As are rare and we need the -pna to back off before anything like that will happen. We could get really lucky and pull something like that off but my guess is very unlikely unless a ridge in the west builds. Hopefully that shifts better later this month. Both the gefs and eps build it in the d10-15 range

I know. Just venting.

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18z Gefs is the straigh up honest to god weeniest run of the long range I’ve ever seen.  The only time I’ve ever seen so much snow on an ensemble is when we were within 7 days of a major storm. Never when all the snow was 7+ days away. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z Gefs is the straigh up honest to god weeniest run of the long range I’ve ever seen.  The only time I’ve ever seen so much snow on an ensemble is when we were within 7 days of a major storm. Never when all the snow was 7+ days away. 

Think E1 would work. E5 and E12 are acceptable too.

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46 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty much no support for anything frozen on the GEFS before next Tues.  After that it’s bombs away.  Another weenie run.  

 

 

Actually it looks like a few members get us snow looking at the precip type maps on weathermodels.com (e14, e15, e19 to name a few) for this weekend’s storm.  

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lots of good options 

C26E811F-A776-458B-953A-C59D514EE504.thumb.png.1782625d7b04ccf1dd645295f077c35e.png

Holy Jaysus! LOL!  I know those snow maps are not the greatest to use, but 16/21 (including the control) give the DC and I-95 corridor >6", and most of those are big hits.  Weenie, indeed.

On a more serious note, I'd be curious how much of this is after next weekend (which apparently the ensembles don't support?)...I'd take it nearly all?  And how much includes the other potential mid-week next week?

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Man who the heck keeps stickin' a weenie algorithm in the FV3?? XD I swear it feels like some snow weenie weather tech somewhere is just makin' it do this on purpose, lolol I mean 18z was just over the top!!

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man who the heck keeps stickin' a weenie algorithm in the FV3?? XD I swear it feels like some snow weenie weather tech somewhere is just makin' it do this on purpose, lolol I mean 18z was just over the top!!

And looking like another hit after hour 384.

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Ok I’ll ask the stupid question but the post Furturdo means what? I thought 8/1 was the holy grail of MJO?

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13 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? 

 

 

Can't recall if it was something you, or perhaps PSU, posted about his study...something about a weak stratospheric Polar vortex somehow mitigates phase 8 to not being as favorable (and you'd need to be more in phase 1)?  I may not be remembering this totally correctly, and I have no idea of the merit of that study.  Also, what is "ECMF"?  Is that the Euro, or some other related model?

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8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

On a more serious note, I'd be curious how much of this is after next weekend (which apparently the ensembles don't support?)...I'd take it nearly all?  And how much includes the other potential mid-week next week?

 

8930D0C8-47E5-431B-8FF4-9C29118004FC.png

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11 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? 

 

 

Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown.  Unless I have missed it.  I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos?  MJO similarities etc...  

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13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ok I’ll ask the stupid question but the post Furturdo means what? I thought 8/1 was the holy grail of MJO?

From the discussions on here I was under the same impression (don't tell me there's some  "wait but it can't be there THIS way" fine print there too, lol)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

From the discussions on here I was under the same impression (don't tell me there's some  "wait but it can't be there THIS way" fine print there too, lol

That is always the case.  I’m convinced we can have -NAO -AO +PNA phase 1 50/50 and still rain.  

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown.  Unless I have missed it.  I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos?  MJO similarities etc...  

Is the SPV really that weak though? Much more consolidated and cold since the split/warming event. Being totally honest... I think the strat gets too much credit for its influence on the troposphere. In the last 13 years since I began looking deeply into NWP it seems way more hit and miss considering the level of attention it gets. And I really don't believe the mjo hitting P8&1 with a respectable amplitude means more of the same.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_1.png

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That is always the case.  I’m convinced we can have -NAO -AO +PNA phase 1 50/50 and still rain.  

With our type of climo it certainly can. It can also snow with a +ao/nao and mjo phase 5 or whatever, 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With our type of climo it certainly can. It can also snow with a +ao/nao and mjo phase 5 or whatever, 

Will keep that in mind.  Good indicies only tip the scale in our favor.  

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15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown.  Unless I have missed it.  I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos?  MJO similarities etc...  

I think his student , a grad student maybe,  was doing a study but that comment he made, well I am not sure I buy it. 

So the strat is over whelming the Pac and it's forcing,  both ocean based and above.  Would like more info and the nature and scope of the study.   

MJO phase 8 and 1 long standing composites are the Holy Grail of East Coast storms, unless something has changed all of the sudden.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Is the SPV really that weak though? Much more consolidated and cold since the split/warming event. Being totally honest... I think the strat gets too much credit for its influence on the troposphere. In the last 13 years since I began looking deeply into NWP it seems way more hit and miss considering the level of attention it gets. And I really don't believe the mjo hitting P8&1 with a respectable amplitude means more of the same.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_1.png

Agree completely with the bolded...

At 10mb things are cooling and consolidating to a certain extent but we are still very weak as you progress down to 50mb. I think the strat is comparable to Cohen's theory on snow advance....It wouldnt get this much play if there wasn't something to it.  The complexities and slight differences in development/progression...other drivers, can make them fools gold but also reliable tools.  The beauty of seasonal forecasting is it's still in its infancy.... 

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41 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? 

 

 

No idea but in the mjo data that goes back 30 years I don’t see and phase 8/1 nino warm periods in February so what is his sample size?  

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

I think his student , a grad student maybe,  was doing a study but that comment he made, well I am not sure I buy it. 

So the strat is over whelming the Pac and it's forcing,  both ocean based and above.  Would like more info and the nature and scope of the study.   

MJO phase 8 and 1 long standing composites are the Holy Grail of East Coast storms, unless something has changed all of the sudden.  

Agreed.  Maybe someone has found a set of variables that would create a pattern of trough west/SE ridge even with a P8-1 MJO.  That would be an awesome find.  As we know, nothing is a guarantee in this business....and a P8-1 does not guarantee anything. .... but the correlation to a good winter pattern for the east is very high whether we are nino or not and that means a lot imo.    

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agree completely with the bolded...

At 10mb things are cooling and consolidating to a certain extent but we are still very weak as you progress down to 50mb. I think the strat is comparable to Cohen's theory on snow advance....It wouldnt get this much play if there wasn't something to it.  The complexities and slight differences in development/progression...other drivers, can make them fools gold but also reliable tools.  The beauty of seasonal forecasting is it's still in its infancy.... 

Agree on the strat. I just looked at all the levels on wxbell. Below 10mb it's far from consolidated and cold. Not much of a -ao response on this strat event. I agree there's def something to it but not nearly as clear as Cohen made many believe. Since the SAI became mainstream a few years back its busted pretty much every year. Lol. This year wasn't a strong signal so I guess the lack of a -ao fits the SAI. What about the strat though? Texbook event and no -nao at all. 

I think that the ao/nao run in some sort of decadal cycle for reasons nobody has figured out. We're clearly in a positive cycle of some sort. That's prob going to flip here in the near future and suddenly the SAI is going to actually start working again. The old saying around here of "weather is just going to weather" has been extremely true this year. I expect a lot of creative backfitting with seasonal forecasts once this winter is over. Either that or many long rangers will just admit that they epically busted. 

Regardless of all that technical stuff... I think our area is going to end up with some very respectable snow totals this season. I'm expecting my yard to get close to or over 30" on the year unless everything falls apart. No signs of that yet. 

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