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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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I see lots of hits in the 6-10 day time frame scanning the members.  Like Bob said, not as many misses to the south but very few skunk us in that time frame.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I see lots of hits in the 6-10 day time frame scanning the members.  Like Bob said, not as many misses to the south but very few skunk us in that time frame.

It's a really good run. Just can't trust anything. EPS is playing follow the leader with the op inside of 10 days and the op is coming up with brand new stuff every 12 hours. Throw a dart... draw out of a hat... use a random number generator... and it will be as accurate as anything else. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a really good run. Just can't trust anything. EPS is playing follow the leader with the op inside of 10 days and the op is coming up with brand new stuff every 12 hours. Throw a dart... draw out of a hat... use a random number generator... and it will be as accurate as anything else. 

Waiting for that it’s happening gif...might be too soon.  Then I will know this is real.  

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's a really good run. Just can't trust anything. EPS is playing follow the leader with the op inside of 10 days and the op is coming up with brand new stuff every 12 hours. Throw a dart... draw out of a hat... use a random number generator... and it will be as accurate as anything else. 

Pretty big change like you said with the progression past 120 hours.  I liked the EPS as it shows a lot of CAD set ups way out in time with the monster 50/50 there.  We may not be looking at a lot of clean snowstorms for the next 10-15 days but active and cold lurking is fun nevertheless.

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Pretty big change like you said with the progression past 120 hours.  I liked the EPS as it shows a lot of CAD set ups way out in time with the monster 50/50 there.  We may not be looking at a lot of clean snowstorms for the next 10-15 days but active and cold lurking is fun nevertheless.

I like this panel. It's pretty good before this but nice h5 mean here. PNA building, trough near HI and BN heights in SoCal opening the door for the southern stream, confluence overhead, and a pretty good atlantic. IF this is right, we may start to see some runs with W-E oriented storms getting pushed off the coast instead of wagons north like we're seeing now. 

0DI3JU9.jpg

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I'm hopeful we can get a better pattern before Feb 26. This is starting to feel a little like the 10-day thing again where things keep getting pushed back.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I'm hopeful we can get a better pattern before Feb 26. This is starting to feel a little like the 10-day thing again where things keep getting pushed back.

Dude, ops just opened the door for this coming weekend. lol

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Just now, osfan24 said:

I'm hopeful we can get a better pattern before Feb 26. This is starting to feel a little like the 10-day thing again where things keep getting pushed back.

Not a lot of runway left.  This needs to work out.  At least get inside day 5.

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29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One notable thing the EPS did move away from is snow into the SE and deep south. Logical explanation is the depth of the cold has backed off. We're going to have to sweat this one out. I have zero confidence in anything beyond next weekend after seeing what 12z ops did today. Just have to pass time and hope for one of these waves to line up right. 

The changes next weekend were better for creating a threat there but worse for next week. A convoluted split weaker system next weekend could pop a low under us and snow but it will not set up as much of a suppressive flow behind it for the wave next week. So we paid Peter by robbing Paul on that one. It is possible with just the right balance to pull off back to back hits. It’s also possible with the wrong balance to end up failing totally. A bombing cutter next weekend increased chances after it.  I’m not complaining or debbing, maybe we end up getting some snow from both, and if they fail it’s not the last chance imo. Just saying the weaker south trend next weekend degraded the threat next week some. 

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS speeds up the PNA ridge building in the west compared to 0z (which was better than previous 12z etc). Fits well with what PSU has been discussing irt the pac improving faster than guidance thinks. Overall the EPS is another very good run that shows promise through the end and beyond (best pattern is at the end). 

I’m convinced “the look” is finally coming. Pac is finally getting its act together wrt the forcing we “expected” all winter. Better late than never I guess. I also expect we jump to it faster than guidance thinks. We are seeing that trend now.

The next 2 weeks are the transition.  During that time I expect numerous waves along the boundary that will be shifting east in the means but not in a continuous progression, so rain is a threat during any flexing of the se ridge or over amplified systems but overall I will be surprised if we make it through the next 14 days without getting clipped by one of these waves. 

After that I think things slow down but we enter the big game preserves and go HECS hunting to finish the season. Of course it doesn’t have to be a hecs, not every coastal goes just right, but the idea the tail end of Feb into March will be eastern trough with blocking and hope for amplification up the coast. 

That’s how this pattern progression plays out in my mind. But even if I’m right that doesn’t guarantee us snow. We could get unlucky with waves missing in all directions then maybe after one storm gets suppressed and another bombs late and we somehow get skunked...but I really don’t find that the most likely end. If anything I think it’s more likely we get more than one warning event than none. We will see. Landing gear is down. We’re coming in for final approach. Gonna be a bumpy landing to this one!

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm hopeful we can get a better pattern before Feb 26. This is starting to feel a little like the 10-day thing again where things keep getting pushed back.

Here, this should inspire your weenie and satisfy snow map fetish. Entire EPS suite through only day 10. Northern tier gets a chunk from the current storm but everything along 95 between the cities is after today/tomorrow. 

6UzASnW.jpg

FLonlT2.jpg

 

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I see lots of hits in the 6-10 day time frame scanning the members.  Like Bob said, not as many misses to the south but very few skunk us in that time frame.
We need misses to south

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
23 minutes ago, LP08 said:
I see lots of hits in the 6-10 day time frame scanning the members.  Like Bob said, not as many misses to the south but very few skunk us in that time frame.

We need misses to south

We want something out of this too, I would like to feel like I'm part of the forum.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The changes next weekend were better for creating a threat there but worse for next week. A convoluted split weaker system next weekend could pop a low under us and snow but it will not set up as much of a suppressive flow behind it for the wave next week. So we paid Peter by robbing Paul on that one. It is possible with just the right balance to pull off back to back hits. It’s also possible with the wrong balance to end up failing totally. A bombing cutter next weekend increased chances after it.  I’m not complaining or debbing, maybe we end up getting some snow from both, and if they fail it’s not the last chance imo. Just saying the weaker south trend next weekend degraded the threat next week some. 

I’m convinced “the look” is finally coming. Pac is finally getting its act together wrt the forcing we “expected” all winter. Better late than never I guess. I also expect we jump to it faster than guidance thinks. We are seeing that trend now.

The next 2 weeks are the transition.  During that time I expect numerous waves along the boundary that will be shifting east in the means but not in a continuous progression, so rain is a threat during any flexing of the se ridge or over amplified systems but overall I will be surprised if we make it through the next 14 days without getting clipped by one of these waves. 

After that I think things slow down but we enter the big game preserves and go HECS hunting to finish the season. Of course it doesn’t have to be a hecs, not every coastal goes just right, but the idea the tail end of Feb into March will be eastern trough with blocking and hope for amplification up the coast. 

That’s how this pattern progression plays out in my mind. But even if I’m right that doesn’t guarantee us snow. We could get unlucky with waves missing in all directions then maybe after one storm gets suppressed and another bombs late and we somehow get skunked...but I really don’t find that the most likely end. If anything I think it’s more likely we get more than one warning event than none. We will see. Landing gear is down. We’re coming in for final approach. Gonna be a bumpy landing to this one!

Good discussion and I don't really think you're "debbing" by expressing worthwhile caution.  But overall, gotta like the looks coming up!

As for final approach and bumpy landings, let's hope it's nothing like "Airplane (is that Ji in the airport tower removing the plug???):

Image result for airplane just kidding

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Boo

Ha ha......thats why I posted the normal EPS too.   I di not want to fluster you 

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3 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

We want something out of this too, I would like to feel like I'm part of the forum.

Would like something other than a cold rain

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2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

We want something out of this too, I would like to feel like I'm part of the forum.

You’ll have to take one for the team.  We won’t forget your sacrifice.  Truth is nothing is written in stone so don’t think you won’t be in the game.  

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

As for final approach and bumpy landings, let's hope it's nothing like "Airplane (is that Ji in the airport tower removing the plug???):

I hope Ji does not resort to sniffing glue prior to the HECS    :yikes:          

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4 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

We want something out of this too, I would like to feel like I'm part of the forum.

At the end of the day, we all want what is best for our backyards. Most of this subforum's posters live in the DC area, so that's the area where discussions will cater to.

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I still count 14 members that miss us south with at least one wave in the next 2 weeks. That’s still pretty good imo. It trended north slightly with next week because of a less amplified weekend storm. But overall it was still a great run with plenty of snow south of us even. It did lose the crazy south solutions. No more Atlanta storms. But still a few NC and southern VA ones. That’s fine and as we get closer we want those Deep South solutions to trend north, I mean unless we actually want to get missed to the south like December!  

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Is it bad that this is the one I'm way more interested in.   I love the sneak attacks

Nope. I'm the same way. I never look past any potential. "Punting" the closest storm because you like the next one ends badly like 100% of the time. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

How did EPS look for this weekend?  Any support for what the Op threw out?

I'll guess there is some support based on this:

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_6.png

 

Probably follow-the-leader though so not sure how much to trust it.  Verbatim the mean 850mb temp is above freezing, but I'm guessing that's probably based on spread with warmer members that take the system farther north.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nope. I'm the same way. I never look past any potential. "Punting" the closest storm because you like the next one ends badly like 100% of the time. 

Bingo. I’m focused on the weekend.  If the weekend goes to hell then I’ll look longer range.  

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@Bob Chill

C8964BDB-6085-4427-80AA-68A562EE0CF0.thumb.png.ca3820a204265e187d5a85a4b2cef0e6.png

that pna ridge will dump that trough into the east which will retrograde that east based NAO ridge over the top and we roll.  Gefs gets there also but a day or two faster. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'll guess there is some support based on this:

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_6.png

 

Probably follow-the-leader though so not sure how much to trust it.  Verbatim the mean 850mb temp is above freezing, but I'm guessing that's probably based on spread with warmer members that take the system farther north.  

This has a better look as well.  The 24HR precip from 0z and 12z below.  Now its more focused south of the region.

EPS 120 Precip.png

EPS 132 0z.png

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