dallen7908 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Hopefully, but it may be a wait; the EPS mean snow fall for College Park is 1.7" over the next 15 days. 18% of the ensembles give > 3" for snow/sleet during that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: He’s talking about it on twitter this morning. Looking at the whole east coast I think. I’m excited for February. Think we’ll be busy. I don't mind how things look in the long range right now. My mini melt down last week was when I realized the NAO wasnt cooperating and that this pattern is unlikely to really work without it. But at that time we could only see to early February. Right now, at least, all guidance is making another attempt at getting the NAO where it needs to be. True blocking, not just an extension of a mid latitude ridge into the NAO domain...that doesn't really help at all. Get the NAO right in February/March and good things tend to just happen here. There are lots of ways to work with that. Even if that look is right we would have waves along the boundary and any of them could get under us if the timing and spacing is right or the confluence to the north flexes. Get the NAO negative and that WAR out of there and that isnt as hostile a look as the last time we played the boundary waves game this month. But i also suspect that if the NAO blocking is real that eventually that SE ridge gets beaten down. It doesn't happen immediately. The blocking doesn't really get good until after day 10. In 2016 it took a week once blocking started to get the trough into the east. Same last year. But get a true west based NAO block and I doubt we suffer through a long strong SE ridge all month. As systems are forced under the block sooner or later they will beat down that ridge and the trough will migrate east. That doesn't mean the look is right. The NAO could fail again. It was on all guidance last time too. But just in terms of that look...for the same reason I was completely selling a week ago even when there were cold/snowy runs without the NAO...I am buying runs that have it...even if they don't show pretty digital snowstorms over us. Give me a nice big west based block and I will take my chances regardless of exactly what the day 15 guidance THINKS it will look like in the mid latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Hopefully, but it may be a wait; the EPS mean snow fall for College Park is 1.7" over the next 15 days. 18% of the ensembles give > 3" for snow/sleet during that period This is the point where I have absolutely no use for those snowfall mean maps. Pattern transition, and heading into a 7 or so day stretch with no discrete winter storm threats(not counting the Friday wimpy deal). If things progress as we think/hope, a few days from now those maps will look different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Well the MJO definitely trended worse and is likely why the trough is getting stuck in the west even with the -NAO. Hopefully this is wrong or temporary... can't have the MJO cycling around in Phase 6/7 all February. But OBVIOUSLY at this point we have to admit there is something favoring forcing around the Maritime Continent that just doesn't want to quit this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ut OBVIOUSLY at this point we have to admit there is something favoring forcing around the Maritime Continent that just doesn't want to quit this year. Wonder if it has to do with SST distribution in the West Pac. Originaly it was the SSWE that caused chaos, but this seems to want to keep happening. JB advocated the cooler waters West of Aussie, (less convection) , (wrong ) but others were saying the Waters East of Aussie were extremely warm. Despite the over night set back, I bet it's two steps front and one step back and we get to the good looks in real time near the dates HM alludes to. Nothing has been once and done this winter except the time frame in early December that brought the decent pattern and the SE Snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: You gonna bet on that? Lol Bet? Sure, I'll take the under 24/7. You'll win more than you'll lose in any month or year or decade or century. We still have 7-10 days in front of us where nothing is likely to come easy. Right now the biggest concern is getting into a pattern that might work well let alone produce a discrete storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Wonder if it has to do with SST distribution in the West Pac. Originaly it was the SSWE that caused chaos, but this seems to want to keep happening. JB advocated the cooler waters West of Aussie, (less convection) , (wrong ) but others were saying the Waters East of Aussie were extremely warm. Despite the over night set back, I bet it's two steps front and one step back and we get to the good looks in real time near the dates HM alludes to. Nothing has been once and done this winter except the time frame in early December that brought the decent pattern and the SE Snowstorm. It's probably a case of the guidance rushing a bit...but the clock is ticking now. I do think we get a period where the blocking and the tropical forcing times up for a really good look...but it wont be some 4 week epic period or anything...its likely to be a 10-14 day window before the MJO goes back into the tank OR we simply run out of climo. So in that regard no matter what happens I was completely wrong wrt to winter, I really thought the mjo would either be a non factor or a positive one. In the end its been THE factor and a negative one. But a 10 day window could be all we need if we get 2 warning events and a major hit in that period. It has happened before. In 2000 we only had a 10 day good period the whole winter but hit 3 good storms during that period (for people NW of the cities). It can happen. Even just one more good solid hit gets DC above climo so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But a 10 day window could be all we need if we get 2 warning events and a major hit in that period. It has happened before. In 2000 we only had a 10 day good period the whole winter but hit 3 good storms during that period (for people NW of the cities). Thats an outcome I can see happening. A high ROI 10 to 14 day period. Based simply on the fact the great pattern when it gets here is likely not to be of long duration but could provide multiple events. Nothing science based just due to the fact things change so fast his winter. The Pac might cooperate with the NAO but we have not seen the PAc lock into any great pattern for long. Look how fast the MJO went from 8 to 5 last time. Yes, some who say things might line up longer this time in our favor, but I rather play odds and say any great or good pattern will not last too long, but has high ticket potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Well the MJO definitely trended worse and is likely why the trough is getting stuck in the west even with the -NAO. Hopefully this is wrong or temporary... can't have the MJO cycling around in Phase 6/7 all February. But OBVIOUSLY at this point we have to admit there is something favoring forcing around the Maritime Continent that just doesn't want to quit this year. why arent u showing the euro that goes to Phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 HM says were going to a KU look post Feb 15....so ill take the HM model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: why arent u showing the euro that goes to Phase 8 It wasn’t updated yet when I looked earlier. Sorry. Jeesh. Hopefully it’s right. That’s the look we want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: HM says were going to a KU look post Feb 15....so ill take the HM model I agree. Doesn’t mean it hits but I think the second half of feb we get a good pattern for a storm. But the mjo meandering around in 6/7 might just mean it’s after February 15 not after February 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I don't mind how things look in the long range right now. My mini melt down last week was when I realized the NAO wasnt cooperating and that this pattern is unlikely to really work without it. But at that time we could only see to early February. Right now, at least, all guidance is making another attempt at getting the NAO where it needs to be. True blocking, not just an extension of a mid latitude ridge into the NAO domain...that doesn't really help at all. Get the NAO right in February/March and good things tend to just happen here. There are lots of ways to work with that. Even if that look is right we would have waves along the boundary and any of them could get under us if the timing and spacing is right or the confluence to the north flexes. Get the NAO negative and that WAR out of there and that isnt as hostile a look as the last time we played the boundary waves game this month. But i also suspect that if the NAO blocking is real that eventually that SE ridge gets beaten down. It doesn't happen immediately. The blocking doesn't really get good until after day 10. In 2016 it took a week once blocking started to get the trough into the east. Same last year. But get a true west based NAO block and I doubt we suffer through a long strong SE ridge all month. As systems are forced under the block sooner or later they will beat down that ridge and the trough will migrate east. That doesn't mean the look is right. The NAO could fail again. It was on all guidance last time too. But just in terms of that look...for the same reason I was completely selling a week ago even when there were cold/snowy runs without the NAO...I am buying runs that have it...even if they don't show pretty digital snowstorms over us. Give me a nice big west based block and I will take my chances regardless of exactly what the day 15 guidance THINKS it will look like in the mid latitudes. get the WAR outta the way and a -AO and that also could work. NAO isnt the only way to the promise land. Mind you I wish it here just as much as anyone, but there are other ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: You gonna bet on that? Lol Saying something *might* happen will return your bet 100% of the time. 3 hours ago, frd said: Meanwhile the GFS is trip'in ..... the SE with feet of snow. Sure You mean the 6z FV3...that shows a bunch of frozen precip as 10:1 snow ratios? Come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 i hate that when it goes cold post Feb 7...everything looks supressed again till the next warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 42 minutes ago, mattie g said: You mean the 6z FV3...that shows a bunch of frozen precip as 10:1 snow ratios? Come on... It's whatever it is. What's the difference. First, trying to make the point the model is wrong and second, regardless sleet, or snow, it would be ironic if those areas in the SE got all that frozen precip and we did not. I was not analyzing the thermals or the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ji said: i hate that when it goes cold post Feb 7...everything looks supressed again till the next warm up. I loved the run. At least 4 potential events that get forced south. Just what we want the op run to be doing at this range. Cold close by, lots of vortices still rotating around from the PV destruction, and the -NAO might be legit. Positive signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: get the WAR outta the way and a -AO and that also could work. NAO isnt the only way to the promise land. Mind you I wish it here just as much as anyone, but there are other ways. There are other ways, but not if the EPO ridge is centered around AK, we need that centered in NW Canada if we are gonna roll without an NAO block in Feb. Its a bunch of moving parts, but unfortunately the other parts are not aligned for a good snow pattern without the NAO. The one thing that can change all that is the NAO, add a block to a west based EPO ridge and suddenly its a good pattern. Without it, its a cutter pattern. The one other way it COULD work would be a severely displaced PV to suppress the flow, but that is something that is very unstable and impossible to predict at range so better to just go with the NOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 GEFS has been doing this d10+ for multiple runs. You can't help but like seeing 7 day precip anomalies with this orientation. GEFS is no doubt seeing blocking/confluence building down the line. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 @Ji Fv3 days deep winter and chances every few days d10+. It's becoming my new favorite digital snow model. ETA: eh, the storm on the 12th is somehow mostly rain. I'll just extrapolate snow and wait for better runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 You have to like the plethora of chances on the GEFS. It seems that it will all come down to weather blocking materializes to get storms under us but there are a lot of nice solutions in the 10+ day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12z GEPS seems to headed in the right direction - towards the GEFS. Not quite there but better than it has been imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 euro OP 10 day is not my favorite look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 All of the 12Z guidance agrees that the warmup is short lived. They all have us frigid again at day ten. Looks like a squash pattern at that point to me. But having that relax a little bit in Mid February would be perfect timing for something big to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: euro OP 10 day is not my favorite look What we really need to happen is even a modest PNA ridge to build. As long as those troughs keep digging deep down the west coast we're stuck in west track rain, plenty cold, then west track rain repeating pattern. I'm not worried about a 10 day op though. Just need the end of that pattern to hold firmly in time and not keep getting pushed back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji Fv3 days deep winter and chances every few days d10+. It's becoming my new favorite digital snow model. ETA: eh, the storm on the 12th is somehow mostly rain. I'll just extrapolate snow and wait for better runs. It's pretty cold leading into it, and thicknesses and 850s would imply snow. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Well the MJO definitely trended worse and is likely why the trough is getting stuck in the west even with the -NAO. Hopefully this is wrong or temporary... can't have the MJO cycling around in Phase 6/7 all February. But OBVIOUSLY at this point we have to admit there is something favoring forcing around the Maritime Continent that just doesn't want to quit this year. I always thought those loops were not accurate.. the wave does not travel backwards.. Usually it indicates the model is keying on a different wave or another area of convection which may or may not actually be the driver. My takeaway when I see that is proceed with caution as the already fickle MJO forecasts may be even more susceptible to error. That's not to argue the seasonal trend of being to be amped up in the warm phases and tend to linger longer in those. Maybe the SSW has something to do with it? If so, it would be ironic then that the effects of the SSW may be what helps build blocking to mitigate to some degree said effects of bad MJO phases. Either way, the MJO may be the wrench the ruined a lot of the good winter forecasts to this point, question is why was it able to behave this way? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 EPS is picking up on a discrete threat in the the 10th-12th window. Even the control has it but it's a hair too far north. This is the first time I've seen ensemble support for a specific period. Looks like a nice coastal from what I can tell. ETA: after looking deeper it's not as much a coastal as some sort of overrunning wave running into CAD. Fits what the GEFS has been doing and the only thing worth watching. Next week is going to have some legit warmth for a few days. Unless we are wet/cloudy I'm expecting 1 or more days in the 60s between Mon-Thurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Are we going to do one this year guys? My expert opinion around ENSO is that an El Nino will continue, and is a rare later peaking event, meaning the North Pacific correlation should stay at 1:1 as we move through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Overall pattern looks better by day 14 on the 12z EPS- EPAC improved, mean trough in the central US instead of out west, SE ridge beat down, and probably the best looking block it has advertised in a long time. Progressing nicely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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