BristowWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: FV3 paste job on the 10th! FV3 for the 12th is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 FV3 is a weenie run again. Which one of you created that model? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Look at this PNA on the 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FV3 is a weenie run again. Which one of you created that model? I did. Needed to get Bristow out of his funk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FV3 is a weenie run again. Which one of you created that model? Wonder if we're getting a better idea of it's biases...maybe it's phase happy? Lol (either that or it'll score a big win if it verifies!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I did. Needed to get Bristow out of his funk. Thanks brother. It worked ...along with this 90min IPA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: FV3 seems to suppress the SE ridge with -PNA. It's trying to compensate for more volatile pattern I think, leaving room for amplification, but it seems to be wrong. Wrong? It hasn’t happened yet. I think you had the 120min IPA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wonder if we're getting a better idea of it's biases...maybe it's phase happy? Lol (either that or it'll score a big win if it verifies!) I don’t know for sure but it seems like it’s usually colder than the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 EPS didn't push things back...that's for sure. Continued progressing the good look at the end of it's 0z run right into the end of it's 12z run. I really think it's coming!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Eps has been fairly rock solid over the last couple days of runs. Definitely the model to follow at this point in time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 35 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wrong? It hasn’t happened yet. I think you had the 120min IPA lol I've been making FV3 posts and deleting them. It seems something about the model is wrong. It has the wrong angle or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I've been making FV3 posts and deleting them. It seems something about the model is wrong. It has the wrong angle or something. Thanks that clears things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Eps has been fairly rock solid over the last couple days of runs. Definitely the model to follow at this point in time. The two features that are becoming more apparent late next week are the strong EPO ridge and the 50/50 low. Both looked much weaker a few days ago. Now they appear to be the big drivers. And working in tandem can be nice for us. We’ve been hunting a -NAO, but the 50/50 works about the same to limit cutters and enhance cold air flow to us. Looks insanely active starting later this week. Whatever the next frozen precip event for us is, I’d wager it’s messy and not pure snow. But I think we’ll get there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Eps has been fairly rock solid over the last couple days of runs. Definitely the model to follow at this point in time. Do you think the GEPS/GEFS and EPS meet in the middle with the trough into the east etc or do you think the EPS has the right idea and it will be an earlier flip? If EPS is right you would expect GEFS/GEPS to start moving in that direction relatively soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 If anything, guidance seems to agree that the next two weeks will be very wet. Good time of year to have that kind of precip anomaly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: The two features that are becoming more apparent late next week are the strong EPO ridge and the 50/50 low. Both looked much weaker a few days ago. Now they appear to be the big drivers. And working in tandem can be nice for us. We’ve been hunting a -NAO, but the 50/50 works about the same to limit cutters and enhance cold air flow to us. Looks insanely active starting later this week. Whatever the next frozen precip event for us is, I’d wager it’s messy and not pure snow. But I think we’ll get there. Don't think we are in a bad place at this time. Like seeing the heights getting pumped up towards the pole and the NAO/50/50 combo. Would like to see that EPO roll over a little giving us a northern based +PNA. Throw that in and I think we have a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: FV3 is a weenie run again. Which one of you created that model? Lol, that’s awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Don't think we are in a bad place at this time. Like seeing the heights getting pumped up towards the pole and the NAO/50/50 combo. Would like to see that EPO roll over a little giving us a northern based +PNA. Throw that in and I think we have a winner. At least we have the superior global model advertising something close to what we want. I like that. A lot more than the other way around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Do you think the GEPS/GEFS and EPS meet in the middle with the trough into the east etc or do you think the EPS has the right idea and it will be an earlier flip? To be honest I am not considering anything the GEFS is throwing out there at this time. Can't speak for the GEPS though because I really don't follow it. Pretty much going with what the EPS is showing at this time and its progression though I am sure there will be some minor tweaking here and there. Think overall it probably has a good handle on the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Close out Feb with a few blockbusters then bring on Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: At least we have the superior global model advertising something close to what we want. I like that. A lot more than the other way around. Dr NO saying MAYBE? I like what I am seeing. But then how many times have I said that this year just to watch it all go POOF? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 This ain't a bad look for mid Feb. Not bad at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Eps has been fairly rock solid over the last couple days of runs. Definitely the model to follow at this point in time. still dont like how it has a mean SE ridge in D11 and 15. We need to move things east a tiny bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: still dont like how it has a mean SE ridge in D11 and 15. We need to move things east a tiny bit If the mjo gets into 8 I expect it will adjust east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 It's a warm pattern until a -NAO builds (potential-time).. at least 15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: still dont like how it has a mean SE ridge in D11 and 15. We need to move things east a tiny bit It looks good on the plot @C.A.P.E. posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It looks good on the plot @C.A.P.E. posted. It does but it’s only about a 48 hour period then the SE ridge flexes a bit again. But as I told @Ji the guidance has had to adjust the pattern to the mjo all season. 90% of the time that’s worked against us. This time that adjustment should shift the trough axis east some imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It does but it’s only about a 48 hour period then the SE ridge flexes a bit again. But as I told @Ji the guidance has had to adjust the pattern to the mjo all season. 90% of the time that’s worked against us. This time that adjustment should shift the trough axis east some imo. It does but verbatim we would only briefly be looking at normal/slightly above temps then the ridge shifts east again by D15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: It does but verbatim we would only briefly be looking at normal/slightly above temps then the ridge shifts east again by D15. actualy temps are still below normal per the EPS D11 to D15 per EPS..so maybe we are in the battlezone of alot of precip:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, Ji said: actualy temps are still below normal per the EPS D11 to D15 per EPS..so maybe we are in the battlezone of alot of precip:) Probably yeah. I was looking at 850 mb temps. Either way the basic idea is the same. We hug the mutha fukin EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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