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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There were a handful of carrolina crushers in the members. I like seeing that at this range. 

Yeah I noticed that. Of course given there likely will be TPV lobes in the neighborhood during this period, we certainly wouldn't want to end our winter the same way it started. :yikes:

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17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I noticed that. Of course given there likely will be TPV lobes in the neighborhood during this period, we certainly wouldn't want to end our winter the same way it started. :yikes:

We need suppression so frankly too much is always a risk in the patterns we need to get snow. The exception is when we’re trying to get front end thumps from cutters of course. But the snow areal coverage in a storm isn’t that great...it only takes a bit more suppression to turn our snow into Richmond south snow.  But it also only takes a bit less to turn it into Philly north snow. So it’s just a chance we have to take. 

Don’t get me wrong if the guidance starts converging on a miss south about day 7 (which is when they often begin to get a clue on track) that would be worrying. But right now it’s good to see some south misses to balance out the north ones. If you disregard the members with no storm (that’s possible too) there is an equal mix of north south and flush hits. 

I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol

:devilsmiley:

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We need suppression so frankly too much is always a risk in the patterns we need to get snow. The exception is when we’re trying to get front end thumps from cutters of course. But the snow areal coverage in a storm isn’t that great...it only takes a bit more suppression to turn our snow into Richmond south snow.  But it also only takes a bit less to turn it into Philly north snow. So it’s just a chance we have to take. 

Don’t get me wrong if the guidance starts converging on a miss south about day 7 (which is when they often begin to get a clue on track) that would be worrying. But right now it’s good to see some south misses to balance out the north ones. If you disregard the members with no storm (that’s possible too) there is an equal mix of north south and flush hits. 

I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol

:devilsmiley:

Yeah I didn't think about the possibility of starting a mini panic when I made that post lol. In all seriousness, we do want some degree of suppression, and we want to see some southern sliders in the mix at range. It would be kinda 'funny' though if this is our last hurrah and it ends up another NC hit. Would make it a bookend season for them.

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30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol

Looking at the wave lenghts, and the -EPO set-up ,this might be one time where a significant March snowstorm hits DC and points NE.  More potential up North but certainly DC could have a decent event followed by some very cold temps for early March.  I feel a miss South is low.  Sure could be wrong, but I favor something more DC and Northeast.  

There is a lot of energy to work with,  and the players are on the field for something noteworthy between March 1 st and 8th. 

Nice to see the models improving as we near the end of Feb., and this matches earlier talks that the first week in March "could" deliver. 

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14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Someone needs to start a new thread. Mystical February is quickly heading to the "finish it strong" early March threats. 

The Gerry Cooney thread....The Great White Hope!  Many of us remember how that ended if you follow boxing and are old enough. 

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56 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The Gerry Cooney thread....The Great White Hope!  Many of us remember how that ended if you follow boxing and are old enough. 

Boxing day was the psu Hoffman storm... I think...

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Oh Ha.. nevermind.. you were talking about boxing the sport not the epic disaster of boxing day 2010... Lol

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