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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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8 minutes ago, schinz said:

UKIE snow map does not look that much different than the Icon, GFS and Euro.

It really doesn't. The op runs are all pretty similar with features and advertised frozen at this juncture. Which way will this trend..

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Anybody have a 12z FV3 snow map?  TT doesn't have the 12z run and the usual site that we use (the MAG site) doesn't have accumulation snow totals... I don't see one on weathermodels or truewx...

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Just now, yoda said:

Anybody have a 12z FV3 snow map?  TT doesn't have the 12z run and the usual site that we use (the MAG site) doesn't have accumulation snow totals... I don't see one on weathermodels or truewx...

All I found was this in their labs section.

8422E326-68CA-4F70-8C95-ADD213A9375B.png

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it was only off by 8.5 inches for my yard the last storm. Not much ground truth difference between a half inch and 9" though.

The UK has had a south/east bias all winter.  Tomorrow’s event in VA is really the first one it’s nailed from 72 hours out or more all winter

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The models were over pumping the SE ridge with it going back a good week from when it first started showing up.   This may be a product of the models realizing we aren’t entrenched strongly in phase 6 or 7 of the MJO anymore.  The guidance has reacted late to the SE ridge behavior all winter in regards to the MJO.  A big reason the mid January event trended warm so late is the MJO headed back into 5 wasn’t being given enough credit by the models on how it would pump heights until we got to about 84 hours out 

That's what i've been wondering as the WAR wouldnt go away,but now that were into P8, the models are catching on and adjusting accordingly.  Sure hope so.

 

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It looks like the majority of GFS ensembles support a thump of snow but vary pretty greatly on what extent, there’s a few that are definitely 6+ so I guess there’s hope 

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Much better cold press through 96.  Stronger sunday/Monday storm helps with that.

 

Edit: Euro

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One would think this looks good
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png&key=42e757d34efbdc95b3edfa5c241669a57dc3e0ad667a5ddf2284e75aeba49e3d
Yes it look good for Seattle

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Just now, Ji said:
14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
FV3 has a HECS for places nw of 95 day 15-16 lol

Man I love that model

early March is a target window though... but way too far out to worry about it 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Hmmmm... 120 has a 1034 HP in N NY/Quebec and 1006mb SLP in W TN

I would rather that be in eastern TN but not bad.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
FV3 has a HECS for places nw of 95 day 15-16 lol

Man I love that model

There are some serious changes going on with the long range guidance right now, and I actually like most of it...but I will save that for after the euro play by play.  

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There are some serious changes going on with the long range guidance right now, and I actually like most of it...but I will save that for after the euro play by play.  
Wasn't winter over yesterday lol
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Thump to ice.  12z suite was basically the same for wed next week.

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Just now, yoda said:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

Don't get me wrong...that isn't bad at all... but if you get that surface low just a little further east into TN it would increase the WAA forcing into our area even more and maybe get a better thump...but it would also probably encourage the low to jump to the coast from there...if its coming up that far west its going to continue to want to press north west of the mountains into the weakness there.  I am NOT debbing this look...its a good look for some front end action, just saying if we wanted this to be even bigger getting that primary into eastern TN instead of western would be one way to do it.  

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Just now, Ji said:
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:
There are some serious changes going on with the long range guidance right now, and I actually like most of it...but I will save that for after the euro play by play.  

Wasn't winter over yesterday lol

I thought it was over in December.  didn't you cancel it?  I guess you can uncancel it...DT did.

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