The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I bet these models will trend much warmer in the next few days. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Check out this -NAO/-EPO.. SE ridge lol

[Ji]

Euro is a long duration snow to ice storm. Maybe icon wasnt off its rocker. It's always sniffing stuff out. The culprit is a much flatter western trough so the se ridge is also flatter. Also a better look in 50 50 region. A dramatic difference from 12z . I mentioned that a euro bias seems like it gets too deep with sw trough sometimes. Lets hope it sticks. Also euro has a nice nao at d10 lol

 

 

[showmethesnow]

Looking over the EPS and the GEFS and it is actually a pretty good look in the extended. (Where have we heard that before? ) Actually might be some signals showing up roughly day 13-15 for a decent storm as well (And Ji notice I didn't say Snowstorm? Just storm? So it could be rain or snow if there is a storm?). And it is only 2 WEEKS AWAY. 

[Ji]

Looking over the EPS and the GEFS and it is actually a pretty good look in the extended. (Where have we heard that before? ) Actually might be some signals showing up roughly day 13-15 for a decent storm as well (And Ji notice I didn't say Snowstorm? Just storm? So it could be rain or snow if there is a storm?). And it is only 2 WEEKS AWAY. 

Well it kills the se ridge for sure. Wish nao was better but maybe that improves. Also much improved for mid week

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking over the EPS and the GEFS and it is actually a pretty good look in the extended. (Where have we heard that before? ) Actually might be some signals showing up roughly day 13-15 for a decent storm as well (And Ji notice I didn't say Snowstorm? Just storm? So it could be rain or snow if there is a storm?). And it is only 2 WEEKS AWAY. 

Well it kills the se ridge for sure. Wish nao was better but maybe that improves. Also much improved for mid week

EPS has been flattening/shunting the eastern ridge at day 15 for a while now. It's always at D15 though. GEFS had been getting a trough over the east sooner, but in recent runs it looks more like the EPS. It looks like we are going to have to deal with some degree of ridging and hope to score something when we get some NS confluence and it flattens some. Also, you might as well forget about a legitimate -NAO at this point. I'm sure the GEFS will keep advertising it, but it likely never verifies in real time.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking over the EPS and the GEFS and it is actually a pretty good look in the extended. (Where have we heard that before? ) Actually might be some signals showing up roughly day 13-15 for a decent storm as well (And Ji notice I didn't say Snowstorm? Just storm? So it could be rain or snow if there is a storm?). And it is only 2 WEEKS AWAY. 

Well it kills the se ridge for sure. Wish nao was better but maybe that improves. Also much improved for mid week

Yeah, I wouldn't give up on the mid week storm. Still think that is a work in progress which will be dependent on the 2 systems preceding it (even though it looks as if we will miss out on snow to our south with our Sat system I do think it is a good first step in the progression) for setting the boundary as well as how much energy gets dumped into the west which is impacting the SE ridge. I also have to question what we are seeing in regards to surface low pressures during this time on most of the models. Just seems a little wonky. Think the models may be caught in the middle of two possible solutions. So instead of a splitting of energy pushing up from the gulf I wonder if we might see a move towards consolidating the energy either to the west of the Appalachians (with a possible transfer to the east later in the period) or East of the Apps through our region or up the coast. Meh, then again maybe the models are right and I am just over thinking this. 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS has been flattening/shunting the eastern ridge at day 15 for a while now. It's always at D15 though. GEFS had been getting a trough over the east sooner, but in recent runs it looks more like the EPS. It looks like we are going to have to deal with some degree of ridging and hope to score something when we get some NS confluence and it flattens some. Also, you might as well forget about a legitimate -NAO at this point. I'm sure the GEFS will keep advertising it, but it likely never verifies in real time.

The models have to be right at some point. Law of averages or some such nonsense. Right? RIGHT? 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Euro is a long duration snow to ice storm. Maybe icon wasnt off its rocker. It's always sniffing stuff out. The culprit is a much flatter western trough so the se ridge is also flatter. Also a better look in 50 50 region. A dramatic difference from 12z . I mentioned that a euro bias seems like it gets too deep with sw trough sometimes. Lets hope it sticks. Also euro has a nice nao at d10 lol

 

 

FV3, EURO and ICON ? seem to be on board for the 20th-21st. Need the GFS to start trending toward them. It's not over.

[Wonderdog]

6z FV3 still on board for next week. 

[Scraff]

We should definitely start a thread for the 20-21 threat so we can kill that one too. LOLz. Happy Friday!

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I cant believe no talk about early next week system.  To me ...the setup screams a warning level storm of snow and ice .

Latest from Sterling...leaning snow thump to begin now . 

&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Canadian high pressure will be spilling into the Upper Midwest on
Monday as low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast pushes eastward
into the Atlantic, and a cold front sinks south and east of our
area. Upslope showers possible on Monday as northwesterly flow and
CAA increases, with the remainder of the CWA remaining mainly dry.
High pressure will continue to build to our north and west through
Tuesday, with continued dry conditions and slightly below normal
temperatures.

Global guidance in fairly decent agreement with a large area of low
pressure approaching from the southern states Tuesday night, tapping
into the Gulf of Mexico, bringing with it plentiful moisture as it
tracks up the Appalachians. Precipitation will overspread the area
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, as strong WAA aloft
commences. Snow looks to be the favored ptype initially,
transitioning to a mix during the day on Wednesday, and over to rain
for portions of the area as the warmer air wins out. Low level cold
air may hang on across the northern tier of the CWA, allowing some
level of wintry precipitation to persist into Wednesday night. High
uncertainty remains with this day 5 & 6 forecast, as ptype will be
dependent upon the strength of the low level cold air, as well as
the placement and strength of the high to our north. An additional
wave of precipitation and potential coastal low development on
Thursday and into Thursday night will keep things unsettled, but
warmer temperatures will favor rain as the main ptype. Colder air
across northern MD and WV may yield mix precip once again Thursday
night.

I would be talking more about it if I lived where you do. In general these setups are underwhelming for those of us who live further east. Last event I got a half inch of frozen followed by like 36 hours of rain at 32-33 degrees lol. I predicted your yard would see 5-6". Wasn't a very bold one  

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

This is the look overhead as precip starts to over spread the DC area and on north per latest Euro.  The ol' Banana/kidney bean high look ...if this look is even close to verifying..should be a fun frozen event ...if you like that sort of thing 

 

I've been more interested in this event than the one that was being talked about for tomorrow. That's why I didn't delve into details much. I've been busy at work preparing for my Radar Certification coming up, so I've been pre-occupied. I'll try to get more involved with this upcoming event. I like its prospects.

[CAPE]

Looking at the 0z EPS, it has 1 to 1.3" of precip for mid to late week, and 2-3" of snow across the region. Probably would be some decent ice for NW areas, and more soaking rain for the rest.

[poolz1]

As others have mentioned...but, here is a visual of the improvement on the EPS for next week.  Much better CAD signal...Neg departures (2mT) pushing down into N GA.             

12z left 00z right

[Jandurin]

THIS IS YOUR LAST CHANCE WINTER

last before the last last

[jaydreb]

WTF Euro?

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's not necessarily true either...Just look at this decade. We basically went mod nino, nina, nina, neutral, neutral, super nino, nina, nina, weak modoki. And a two-year enso event is not off of the table either! We are due for a mod Nino, imo!

Give it up dude.  There is 0 chance of a 2-year nino.  And look at your own argument:  every nino you cited was proceeded by multiple Nina's....  And if it makes you feel any better, neutrals following ninas are just as terrible.  Minus shear stroke of good fortune, we are in for at least another 3 terrible winters.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

The models have to be right at some point. Law of averages or some such nonsense. Right? RIGHT? 

Bet you were saying that in Vegas, too, eh??  

[EastCoast NPZ]

53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

This is the look overhead as precip starts to over spread the DC area and on north per latest Euro.  The ol' Banana/kidney bean high look ...if this look is even close to verifying..should be a fun frozen event ...if you like that sort of thing 

 

High is a little weak.

[EastCoast NPZ]

44 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I would be talking more about it if I lived where you do. In general these setups are underwhelming for those of us who live further east. Last event I got a half inch of frozen followed by like 36 hours of rain at 32-33 degrees lol. I predicted your yard would see 5-6". Wasn't a very bold one  

Sounds just like the last storm to me.  I got 10 minutes of light snow followed by 36 hours of 33F rain.  Next.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

This is the look overhead as precip starts to over spread the DC area and on north per latest Euro.  The ol' Banana/kidney bean high look ...if this look is even close to verifying..should be a fun frozen event ...if you like that sort of thing 

I think the northern tier will do well again with this but I’m unenthused for my area. It’ll probably be cold rain again for the majority of the event. 

[MD Snow]

We’re still 5 days out. This system probably has one more wrinkle in it. The wrinkle is probably tied to the strength of the hpc to the north and the strength of the 50/50 low. Get a stronger more expansive 50/50 low and the HPC gets locked in and we get more snow/mix than rain. In this scenario, we also have potential of the primary transferring to the coast sooner which would potentially lead to all snow/mix. This is the solution areas east of 95 should be rooting for.  However, weaken the 50/50 at all and the high can escape faster and it’s a snow/mix to rain or just rain for the entire area. Like I said, this system probably has one more semi major shift in it either to more of an all snow solution (0z euro) or quick snow to mix to rain solution (6z gfs). I won’t buy any all snow/mix solution until we are inside 24hrs...haha

[Maestrobjwa]

44 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Give it up dude.  There is 0 chance of a 2-year nino.  And look at your own argument:  every nino you cited was proceeded by multiple Nina's....  And if it makes you feel any better, neutrals following ninas are just as terrible.  Minus shear stroke of good fortune, we are in for at least another 3 terrible winters.

Well...2013-14 wasn't terrible, now was it? We were just coming out of a nina then...And we have had two-year ENSO events before (I just listed this decade. There were others. I'd suggest looking through our history a bit more...You'll see that the probability of getting 3 more bad winters is kinda low based on our history. Oh, and solar minimums are good to us more often than not )

[stormtracker]

I have an important announcement to make at 9AM EST.   Please standby

[RevWarReenactor]

Given how bad guidance has been (72 hours out everyone thought a Saturday 3-5 inch DC snowstorm was a lock). I think it is really best to take the models for Wednesday with a grain of salt. Anything from success to complete failure is probably on the table until at least Monday night.

[Ji]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have an important announcement to make at 9AM EST.   Please standby

marcus is coming back?

[stormtracker]

I am  announcing that I am officially recognizing the ICON as a legit model.  It has been the first to sniff out a lot of trends and it was pointed out to me by a poster (who I wish would wake the hell up and come back to this board and start posting) how it killed it during some past events and you know what?  They were right.   Sure, it wobbles, but I need to go ahead and admit I was wrong about it being a totally shit model.   Is it Euro level?  Shut up Euro.  For me, the Euro is still an MVP, but past it’s prime years.  Verification scores, etc etc.  I know.  Still….Icon, I apologize.   That is all.

 

Now let’s get back to generating 90 pages of content for an event that will fail 36 hours before hand.  It’s what we do…and we do it well.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Given how bad guidance has been (72 hours out everyone thought a Saturday 3-5 inch DC snowstorm was a lock). I think it is really best to take the models for Wednesday with a grain of salt. Anything from success to complete failure is probably on the table until at least Monday night.

Keep us posted. There's nothing more informative than a post full of true-isms.  

[stormtracker]

Hey everyone.  Models could be right next week.  They could be wrong.   It could snow, or it could rain.  Everything is on the table. Watch the models.   It could be a success, there could be failure.  It may be sunny, or it could be cloudy.   Next week, I may not eat, but I probably will.   It's all on the table.