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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

At a reasonable level of noise, 12z and 18z gfs are basically identical for all 3 storms.

Yeah I know.   I’m just messing around.  I’ll stop.  

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

NA looks great to me going back several runs. No the EPS does not have as strong a -NAO look as the GEFS, but it is good enough, and has lower heights where we want it (50-50 region). Plus the ridging out west becomes more favorable. The SE ridge is pesky, but I suspect it will be more suppressed than currently advertised. Try not to micro analyze.

Was just going to post that. Pretty impressive - anomaly east of 50/50 considering there is no Greenland block.

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9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Has Richmond had snow since the early Dec event? He mad.

A few inches just NW of Richmond for me, along with sleet. I’m somewhere around 18-19” total for the season so far. 

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[mention=514]Ji[/mention] uh oh it’s going south!!!
D2C89309-6C28-436E-AF62-8450255FA25F.thumb.png.dacc2710274a94a91110d7dcd59a398e.png
Cranky says the fv3 is the worst model ever made hahaha

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:
13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
Yeah, it's warmer.  Shame.  But, plot twist...it's 7 days away and get this...it will change like 387 times.

Ya but if we are already losing the snow now....lol

Life is a sine wave

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Life is a sine wave
I dont even know what trend we need anymore now a days. Just a snow trend I guess!
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GFS FV3 is winter storm warning type snow for 50-75% of Virginia for Saturday.  Unfortunately I dont believe in that model much at this time.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Life is a sine wave

I dont even know what trend we need anymore now a days. Just a snow trend I guess!

A transient 50/50 is something to look for, I believe...

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17 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

People really need to stop looking at the GEFS in this type of pattern where so many mixed systems are possible. It's showing ridiculous snow outputs because it's counting a lot of ice as snow.

Unfortunately with no NAO help and a -PNA, the majority of the time that signals a better snow chance for New England.

Ive actually read them talking about how too strong a negative NAO is not great in their neck of the woods. Being the skier that I am I don’t hate that Vermont looks to be bulls eyed next two weeks but I would be pretty disappointed if not one of these waves break in our favor for mby.

I do like the potential for weds-thurs next week for a thump with decent CAD. But that could very quickly turn rain if the shortwave digs too hard considering there’s no back side blocking in the flow with such a negative pna.

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Life is a sine wave

I dont even know what trend we need anymore now a days. Just a snow trend I guess!

Fast flow and tight spacing = volatility on guidance. We have the current event to get through and then the Friday one. The exact track and precisely where the boundary lies in the wake are yet to be determined, and will have potentially significant impacts on the weekend event, and the ones that follow next week.

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20 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

GFS FV3 is winter storm warning type snow for 50-75% of Virginia for Saturday.  Unfortunately I dont believe in that model much at this time.

Let's go with a 50/50 split with GFS and the FV3. We both win

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49 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's warmer.  Shame.  But, plot twist...it's 7 days away and get this...it will change like 387 times.

                                                                                                                                       28

 

FYP

hehe

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Wonder what's more liky to improve the the snow chance next week: A transient 50/50 from one of the waves, or blocking up top (or is the blocking/no blocking part of it already set in stone?)

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wonder what's more liky to improve the the snow chance next week: A transient 50/50 from one of the waves, or blocking up top (or is the blocking/no blocking part of it already set in stone?)

Both. They tend to go hand in hand- a ridge up top and a semi-permanent vortex stuck underneath, which tends to produce the desired result here- a cold N/NE feed and favorable storm track.

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GEFS remains rock steady with rolling the North American pattern forward. The most important shift is the ridge axis out west. The EPS is stubborn and just starting to build the +PNA at the end of the run but still keeps the conus trough axis in the west. Both the GEFS and GEPS are quicker and are also very similar with their upper level patterns. I think the EPS is going to cave here before long. I've said this before but the PNA tends to oscillate in shorter timescales than than other teleconnections. I strongly believe the PNA and/or EPO are likely to improve (possibly signficantly) inside of 2 weeks. Obviously we have multiple chances over the next 10 days for snowfall so that's pretty sweet. By the time we're done tracking whatever happens with the larger storm next week I think the best North American pattern of the season will be knocking on the door in the mid range. Good times. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS remains rock steady with rolling the North American pattern forward. The most important shift is the ridge axis out west. The EPS is stubborn and just starting to build the +PNA at the end of the run but still keeps the conus trough axis in the west. Both the GEFS and GEPS are quicker and are also very similar with their upper level patterns. I think the EPS is going to cave here before long. I've said this before but the PNA tends to oscillate in shorter timescales than than other teleconnections. I strongly believe the PNA and/or EPO are likely to improve (possibly signficantly) inside of 2 weeks. Obviously we have multiple chances over the next 10 days for snowfall so that's pretty sweet. By the time we're done tracking whatever happens with the larger storm next week I think the best North American pattern of the season will be knocking on the door in the mid range. Good times. 

It is odd the eps seems stuck on an idea that is out of line with the pacific forcing while the gefs goes right to the exorcised look. I suppose maybe there is a complex issue the eps can see but more likely it’s just wrong.  People forget how often the eps is awful day 10+ also.  Plus a minor error can have impacts that are exponential downstream. If the eps is erroneously dumping too much trough out west it will pump more se ridge which then shunts what does come east later further north muting the attempt at an NAO ridge. Change that a little and suddenly a chain reaction happens and we get the gefs look. 

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Definitely lost the heavy hitters in the GEFS, though it might be meaningless if they were skewed by mixed precip.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Definitely lost the heavy hitters in the GEFS, though it might be meaningless if they were skewed by mixed precip.

Yea, 18z gefs is only loaded with weak sauce 1-2' solutions. I guess we'll just have to be fine with that. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, 18z gefs is only loaded with weak sauce 1-2' solutions. I guess we'll just have to be fine with that. 

It's from multiple events over the next 2 1/2 weeks though. There were some solutions in there hinting at 3 plus feet previously. Most of those are in the 18 inch range and almost half of that is probably the mixed slop for the middle of next week. One thing I do find odd is that almost every member has the same general idea. That's really unusual.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's from multiple events over the next 2 1/2 weeks though. There were some solutions in there hinting at 3 plus feet previously. Most of those are in the 18 inch range and almost half of that is probably the mixed slop for the middle of next week. One thing I do find odd is that almost every member has the same general idea. That's really unusual.

This is such a terrible post, I don’t even know where to begin.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, 18z gefs is only loaded with weak sauce 1-2' solutions. I guess we'll just have to be fine with that. 

LOL, I know, right?!  My first thought on the "losing the heavy hitters" comment was...dafuq?  All caveats with the snow maps aside and looking at it from a general perspective, GEFS still has 18 of 21 members that give DC/Balt/I95 region over 6".  And several of those are quite a bit more than that. The mean is about a foot or so and this has been the case I think for a few runs now. Again not taking literally and of course there's no guarantee, but right now that's a helluva signal through the last week of February. I also like how the "gradient" into the higher amounts is pushed a bit east it appears.

I don't know what the heck has happened in this thread or the other one covering this weekend specifically, but I swear a lot of the commentary suddenly went downhill even with us staring at the possibility of 3 events in the next 7-10 days! Crickey!

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