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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
I’ve been busy today and not really looked that much. Last I saw there were hints it would toward day 15 across guidance.   

Is this a joke?

No... I just now looked at the guidance from last night and today. Still agree with what I said after the NAO and AO looking fairly neutral to slightly negative day 5-10 they look to go very positive day 11-15. That likely is the beginning of the end for winter. But we get a monster dump of cold and a severely displaced tpv first so there is a pretty good 7-10 day window to work with for a storm before we likely warm up for good around March 10th. 

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

A little better signal for a coastal in the d8-10 on the 18z gefs.  That EPO is going to deliver one heck of a HP....Ens mean has a 1048 high at D9.  Pretty impressive for that range.

Even the NWS products are going pretty cold the first week of March.  

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Just now, poolz1 said:

A little better signal for a coastal in the d8-10 on the 18z gefs.  That EPO is going to deliver one heck of a HP....Ens mean has a 1048 high at D9.  Pretty impressive for that range.

nU1EuYR.png

Given the shape of a high, there's not going to be a low sneaking up from the central gulf coast states.   Anything that forms will be an anafront skimming 95.

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31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No... I just now looked at the guidance from last night and today. Still agree with what I said after the NAO and AO looking fairly neutral to slightly negative day 5-10 they look to go very positive day 11-15. That likely is the beginning of the end for winter. But we get a monster dump of cold and a severely displaced tpv first so there is a pretty good 7-10 day window to work with for a storm before we likely warm up for good around March 10th. 

sorry i misread it. I thought you were saying that the models were showing -NAO again in D11-15 lol. I am actually ready for winter to end. One more event to push me over 30 inches and i get to sleep full nights again

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

sorry i misread it. I thought you were saying that the models were showing -NAO again in D11-15 lol. I am actually ready for winter to end. One more event to push me over 30 inches and i get to sleep full nights again

First couple days of March have some things working in our favor. Crappy setup for any kind of long track though. TPV is likely dropping down (prob a couple times) over the next 2 weeks. Similar to what we saw in March 14&15. Could work out again. We seem to do well in March with -epo dumps, TPV intrusions, and progressive flow. 

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1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

There’s our coastal.  

 

C5D9B9B5-8588-425F-B369-1198287A0AC2.png

You guys are NOT, I repeat, you are definitely NOT done with winter just yet. You have more snow yet to come this winter!

Start those model tracking engines! Stock up on Red Bull! Many sleepless nights await! Get the shovels ready too!

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6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

I think you mentioned this recently....lol. #3 analog would be acceptable

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

1984 had a couple storms and one absolute bomb late in the month but was mostly rain. 1965 was also had a monster storm around that date but was also more rain than the 93 one.  There were two more minor snows the last week of March though.  So some interesting dates mixed in there. 

I can see how that look “could” lead to a monster phased bomb. That crazy epo block is pressing down on the tpv displacing it south. The se ridge is resisting it shifting too Far East. If something dives down around the tpv and phases with the stj it could pull it all in and boom. 

Thing is that’s always a long shot. Getting the right setup happens every so often but getting it to all come together is way more rare. And even if it did quite a few similar monster phased bombs have been mostly rain. It’s more common to get them to phase bomb further north. The gulf thing was super rare. 

But there are enough interesting dates to say an amplified storm in the east is possible around that time period at least. 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z EPS has a pretty decent signal for a coastal low March 2-3 time frame.

eps_slp_lows_east_39.thumb.png.917eeb3e7ff6630d00845dca30d63a82.png

Glancing through the members, the mid next week deal is there, but minor/weak for the most part.

For March 2-3 there are some decent hits and near misses among the members. Not a bad signal for 9 days out.

There were a handful of carrolina crushers in the members. I like seeing that at this range. 

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There were a handful of carrolina crushers in the members. I like seeing that at this range. 

Yeah I noticed that. Of course given there likely will be TPV lobes in the neighborhood during this period, we certainly wouldn't want to end our winter the same way it started. :yikes:

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17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I noticed that. Of course given there likely will be TPV lobes in the neighborhood during this period, we certainly wouldn't want to end our winter the same way it started. :yikes:

We need suppression so frankly too much is always a risk in the patterns we need to get snow. The exception is when we’re trying to get front end thumps from cutters of course. But the snow areal coverage in a storm isn’t that great...it only takes a bit more suppression to turn our snow into Richmond south snow.  But it also only takes a bit less to turn it into Philly north snow. So it’s just a chance we have to take. 

Don’t get me wrong if the guidance starts converging on a miss south about day 7 (which is when they often begin to get a clue on track) that would be worrying. But right now it’s good to see some south misses to balance out the north ones. If you disregard the members with no storm (that’s possible too) there is an equal mix of north south and flush hits. 

I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol

:devilsmiley:

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We need suppression so frankly too much is always a risk in the patterns we need to get snow. The exception is when we’re trying to get front end thumps from cutters of course. But the snow areal coverage in a storm isn’t that great...it only takes a bit more suppression to turn our snow into Richmond south snow.  But it also only takes a bit less to turn it into Philly north snow. So it’s just a chance we have to take. 

Don’t get me wrong if the guidance starts converging on a miss south about day 7 (which is when they often begin to get a clue on track) that would be worrying. But right now it’s good to see some south misses to balance out the north ones. If you disregard the members with no storm (that’s possible too) there is an equal mix of north south and flush hits. 

I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol

:devilsmiley:

Yeah I didn't think about the possibility of starting a mini panic when I made that post lol. In all seriousness, we do want some degree of suppression, and we want to see some southern sliders in the mix at range. It would be kinda 'funny' though if this is our last hurrah and it ends up another NC hit. Would make it a bookend season for them.

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30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know you know this just don’t want to see 15 posts this morning worrying about another 1980 scenario...although March 1980 has been showing up from time to time in analogs. Lol

Looking at the wave lenghts, and the -EPO set-up ,this might be one time where a significant March snowstorm hits DC and points NE.  More potential up North but certainly DC could have a decent event followed by some very cold temps for early March.  I feel a miss South is low.  Sure could be wrong, but I favor something more DC and Northeast.  

There is a lot of energy to work with,  and the players are on the field for something noteworthy between March 1 st and 8th. 

Nice to see the models improving as we near the end of Feb., and this matches earlier talks that the first week in March "could" deliver. 

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14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Someone needs to start a new thread. Mystical February is quickly heading to the "finish it strong" early March threats. 

The Gerry Cooney thread....The Great White Hope!  Many of us remember how that ended if you follow boxing and are old enough. 

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