The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

How did the MA fare during that seminal event?  Nothing but rain in Eastern NC but the mountains got walloped.  My wife lived near Asheville at the time and she was out of school for like two weeks.

Where I live now got ~18” of snow and sleet according to the local coop. Where I was in NJ at the time got 12” of snow and sleet. I remember helping dig my neighbors car to the main road because his wife went into labor.  It was pouring sleet with thunder and lightning as bad as any summer thunderstorm. 

[cbmclean]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. @frd

JB said this today when opining regarding whether it’s the qbo and strat to bland for the eastern ridge.

“SOMETHING ELSE HAS TO BE GOING ON to have turned the TNH positive like this”

That seems to confirm my suspicions the TNH is an effect not a cause. Of course it still gets us no closer to a cause.  He thinks it’s a combination of lots of things probably.

He goes on to say...

“A lot of you on my side of the AGW issue do not want to hear this, but perhaps its overall warmed state of the oceans and the planet that result in different reactions than years of the analogs, many of them were years when the planet had a lower base state, That may be a bias on my part.”

I’ll give him some credit for admitting he has been wrong finally and that second statement which runs antithetical to his agenda.  He seems to be having the same discussion inside his own head that we are on here. Lol

So does he doesn't deny global warming per se, just the anthropogenic part?

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So does he doesn't deny global warming per se, just the anthropogenic part?

Yes. Lately he has backed down in denying there is warning. He now is blaming natural factors for the warming. Still denying human causation. 

[Ji]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes. Lately he has backed down in denying there is warning. He now is blaming natural factors for the warming. Still denying human causation. 

lol  was he really denying that there was a warming?

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

He goes on to say...

“A lot of you on my side of the AGW issue do not want to hear this, but perhaps its overall warmed state of the oceans and the planet that result in different reactions than years of the analogs, many of them were years when the planet had a lower base state, That may be a bias on my part.”

I’ll give him some credit for admitting he has been wrong finally and that second statement which runs antithetical to his agenda.  He seems to be having the same discussion inside his own head that we are on here. Lol

Bravo goes to JB to for annoucing a statement such as that. 

I had previously read from a long range pro over at 33andrain that he had many theories about the issues with the winter and how things are not lining up,  and he commented that in his list of possible causes was climate warming. He felt the warming was an issue in regards to blocking.

He mentioned many valid reasons, no need to rehash here again. 

This evening I was thinking about what you posted concerning early March today.  

You and I have mentioned early March for the past month or so, and I know it is a low probability that a historic event takes place, but certainly there are indications something is brewing for the first week of March.

One thing I reflect on though is whether the lack of Nor'easters makes the potential less, sort of like the old atmosphere has a memory thing. All winter we have had three main storms and few if any BM storms.

Does that mean we can not get a major Atlantic Coastal cyclone, I would guess no, if things evolve like they could. 

We really need a NAO blip late Feb / early March. And we need those others things you spoke about this afternoon. 

Anyways, lets see what transpires this week. And hope we get an interesting weather event in early March.  

  

 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep.....i would rather a strong Nino(2016) than a weak one. Weak Ninos seem mediocre. i heard 97-98 had a lot of close blockbuster misses

Agree but east based strong ninos tend to overwhelm NAM with warmth. We can get lucky with a big storm like 83 if we can time up what little cold there is with a storm but some were just wet like 98. 2016 was basin wide. Those are in between. Better than east based but not a sure thing like modoki. We could have done better though. There was some legit cold periods in February and March and a few other threats that failed to reach potential imo.  Imo the location of the warm enso anomalies is just as important as the intensity. Ideal is a central pac moderate nino.  Every one of them was an above average snowfall winter. The further from that the worse it is.

Imo a weak modoki isn’t a bad thing but the problem is it’s too weak to be a dominant pattern driver and offset any other negatives and so we are left at the mercy of other factors as well.  Sometimes that works out like 1978 and 2015. Sometimes that’s a disaster like 1995. This year is somewhere in between.  

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol  was he really denying that there was a warming?

He’s been denying any warming for years or decades now perhaps.  Now when it’s impossible to ignore , he’s used bad thermodynamics to try and make it due to some sort of bizarre ENSO feedback he’s invented.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol  was he really denying that there was a warming?

Yes in years past he was spinning that it was fabricated by urban heat island skewing the data and other crap. Lately he turned to the super nino temporarily heating the globe. But lately he has started to concede that the cooling he expected is not happening as so he can’t deny it’s warmer. Still doesn’t attribute it to CO2

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I'll tell you what, this doesn't look bad

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Models actually have a nice -EPO developing, but it's the same old stuff as all Winter with this European ridge and we never do well.. 

 

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. @frd

JB said this today when opining regarding whether it’s the qbo and strat to bland for the eastern ridge.

“SOMETHING ELSE HAS TO BE GOING ON to have turned the TNH positive like this”

That seems to confirm my suspicions the TNH is an effect not a cause. Of course it still gets us no closer to a cause.  He thinks it’s a combination of lots of things probably.

He goes on to say...

“A lot of you on my side of the AGW issue do not want to hear this, but perhaps its overall warmed state of the oceans and the planet that result in different reactions than years of the analogs, many of them were years when the planet had a lower base state, That may be a bias on my part.”

I’ll give him some credit for admitting he has been wrong finally and that second statement which runs antithetical to his agenda.  He seems to be having the same discussion inside his own head that we are on here. Lol

Yeah but what a hack he is because he will stick with "his side" of the AGW issue, despite being a science-based person and seeing some evidence to support it.

The +TNH seems to have something to do with the SE ridge, and it seems to be driven by ocean temps at least to some degree- e.g. the blob a few years ago had an impact and the TNH pattern was prominent.

[PDIII]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes in years past he was spinning that it was fabricated by urban heat island skewing the data and other crap. Lately he turned to the super nino temporarily heating the globe. But lately he has started to concede that the cooling he expected is not happening as so he can’t deny it’s warmer. Still doesn’t attribute it to CO2

It most certainly is C02.  But the problem is that CO2 levels have spiked like similarly throughout time.  This has been happening before people started walking upright and is shown in ice core data collected from Antarctica. The truth is that the Earth is coming out of an ice age. And will eventually enter another ice age and there is nothing we can do to disrupt that. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, PDIII said:

It most certainly is C02.  But the problem is that CO2 levels have spiked like similarly throughout time.  This has been happening before people started walking upright and is shown in ice core data collected from Antarctica. The truth is that the Earth is coming out of an ice age. And will eventually enter another ice age and there is nothing we can do to disrupt that. 

So? You don't think 8 billion people, the industrial age, and ~1.5 billion vehicles on the road changes that equation a little? Sure there are natural causes for the variations, but there is a new source of CO2 over the last 100 years, and it isn't trivial.

[PDIII]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

So? You don't think 8 billion people, the industrial age, and ~1.5 billion vehicles on the road changes that equation a little? Sure there are natural causes for the variations, but there is a new source of CO2 over the last 100 years, and it isn't trivial.

Probably has had some influence. And it measurable.  Look we need responsible global environmental policies. This is important no matter what. All I am saying is that our atmosphere is so much bigger than what we can ever produce and there are natural cycles that will occur that cannot be stopped. 

Everything I know about global warming comes from my time at Hopkins in the Earth and planetary sciences program.  The people I studied under drilled the ice cores themselves and had data that brought a lot of common Sense to this issue.   Until someone shows me something that dismisses those findings I am going with what I learned. 

[MD Snow]

Overnight runs on the gefs and eps start to flatten the SER by next Monday. That’s encouraging. Might be tracking some more legit threats by early next week. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The SOI daily contribution today was -35 . 

It has now been a double digit negative number for 8 straight days. -35 is the best number yet.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 hours ago, PDIII said:

 All I am saying is that our atmosphere is so much bigger than what we can ever produce and there are natural cycles that will occur that cannot be stopped. 

This is a very unscientific statement.  The data unequivocally shows that we are producing enough greenhouse gasses to change the climate quite rapidly. 

[WxUSAF]

I’m interested in the climate talk, but we have a separate subforum for that.

[midatlanticweather]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m interested in the climate talk, but we have a separate subforum for that.

Agreed! Just typed up a response and felt I was not in the right place!

 

[snowmagnet]

Did the Friday chance fizzle out? 

[MD Snow]

5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Did the Friday chance fizzle out? 

I’d say it’s still kind of on the table. But it was never much of a threat to begin with. Outside a couple gfs runs most guidance hasn’t had anything. 

[Ji]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The SOI daily contribution today was -35 . 

It has now been a double digit negative number for 8 straight days. -35 is the best number yet.

wow the old JB would have a precited an east coast blizzard about 1-2 weeks later @psuhoffman

[Ji]

33 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I’d say it’s still kind of on the table. But it was never much of a threat to begin with. Outside a couple gfs runs most guidance hasn’t had anything. 

yep--and not one run was ever snow

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow the old JB would have a precited an east coast blizzard about 1-2 weeks later @psuhoffman

There is some potential in early March. Some interesting pattern analogs. 1962 still the top. March 93 shows up. Then some years with snow that just missed being much bigger. March 84. March 80. March 96. March 59. Enough snow centered near the long range analogs to think we’re not necessarily done yet. 

I don’t like our prospects once past March 10. The way it’s evolving once the current mjo wave progresses out of favorable phases and the pac (which gets favorable soon with a monster epo ridge and even some pna help at times) relaxes the trough likely pulls up and the whole conus torches the last half of March. But if we can score one good snowstorm before that who cares. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

There is some potential in early March. Some interesting pattern analogs. 1962 still the top. March 93 shows up. Then some years with snow that just missed being much bigger. March 84. March 80. March 96. March 59. Enough snow centered near the long range analogs to think we’re not necessarily done yet. 

I don’t like our prospects once past March 10. The way it’s evolving once the current mjo wave progresses out of favorable phases and the pac (which gets favorable soon with a monster epo ridge and even some pna help at times) relaxes the trough likely pulls up and the whole conus torches the last half of March. But if we can score one good snowstorm before that who cares. 

There is an increasing signal here and GEFS has a pretty cold pattern.  I don't think moisture wil be an issue. The analogs you mention are not the ones I came up with earlier in the season, most likely because the base state is not as predicted. 

By the way,  that is rather impressive cold there on the GEFS. 

  

 

[snowmagnet]

3 hours ago, MD Snow said:

I’d say it’s still kind of on the table. But it was never much of a threat to begin with. Outside a couple gfs runs most guidance hasn’t had anything. 

I thought the Euro showed it as well. 

[CAPE]

12z GEFS looks pretty cold for the beginning of March. This is a semi-epic looking panel.

 

[CAPE]

GEFS teasing with the HL blocking again the past few runs. EPS advertising legit cold for that period too, but less impressive up top. Some blocking would help to keep the trough from retreating back up into Canada pretty quickly.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GEFS teasing with the HL blocking again the past few runs. EPS advertising legit cold for that period too, but less impressive up top. Some blocking would help to keep the trough from retreating back up into Canada pretty quickly.

Eps is very cold day 11-15. 

[psuhoffman]

Unfortunately it’s VERY dry too