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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we are too quick to label things we don’t understand stochastic.  

A valid point.  On the other hand though, I also think that when phenomena are difficult to understand it is a great temptation to do a knee-jerk grab at some simple causation.  But it seems that whenever a forecast does not turn out the way that we expect we want to pull another index out of our hat as an explanation.  I am just as guilty as anyone else: NAO, AO, PNA, EPO, ENSO, SOI, PDO, AMO, QBO and now I guess the TNH.

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I didn't realize we were trying to make a direct correlation between the TNH and above/below normal snowfall, rather to find some rationale for the persistence of the SE ridge despite other factors that argue against it.

Everything I read suggests that the +phase favors a SE ridge, which naturally becomes in inhibiting factor for snowfall in this region.

Overview of the TNH from CPC-

 

Sorry I’m not trying to refute what your saying just adding too it. The pattern right now is obviously +TNH.  And there is a SE ridge correlation. 

But I’m bringing up issues I still want answers too that’s all. First is what’s the causality. TNH measured the jet pattern but what is the cause of that?  Next is the fact it’s bucking norms. A -soi and mjo phase 8-1-2 favors a neutral to -TNH. So why is this one opposite?  Then..even if you told me going in the TNH would be + I might not have necessarily bailed on snow since February 2003 was a VERY +TNH but the favorable enso muted the se ridge enough that we had 3 significant snow/ice events and no rain all month.  That’s super rare. Same happened in 2015. Another analog. +TNH but the ridge got beaten down.

Looking at some other examples it seems when the TNH is positive but the soi is negative and the mjo goes into phase 8-2 the SE ridge gets muted enough to be cold here.  So why is that not happening now?  The SE ridge is ape not muted at all. 

Everything you said is 100% true I just need more answers about those things before I can understand the full cause effect relationship here. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry I’m not trying to refute what your saying just adding too it. The pattern right now is obviously +TNH.  And there is a SE ridge correlation. 

But I’m bringing up issues I still want answers too that’s all. First is what’s the causality. TNH measured the jet pattern but what is the cause of that?  Next is the fact it’s bucking norms. A -soi and mjo phase 8-1-2 favors a neutral to -TNH. So why is this one opposite?  Then..even if you told me going in the TNH would be + I might not have necessarily bailed on snow since February 2003 was a VERY +TNH but the favorable enso muted the se ridge enough that we had 3 significant snow/ice events and no rain all month.  That’s super rare. Same happened in 2015. Another analog. +TNH but the ridge got beaten down.

Looking at some other examples it seems when the TNH is positive but the soi is negative and the mjo goes into phase 8-2 the SE ridge gets muted enough to be cold here.  So why is that not happening now?  The SE ridge is ape not muted at all. 

Everything you said is 100% true I just need more answers about those things before I can understand the full cause effect relationship here. 

No idea. This stuff is anything but simple. Degrees and magnitudes of all of the above, all interacting, occurring simultaneously(but likely slightly out of phase), and on the largest possible scale. We are both teachers. One subject I teach deals with fluid mechanics and heat transfer/balance on a comparatively small scale. That is complicated enough, or at least my students think so lol.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No idea. This stuff is anything but simple. Degrees and magnitudes of all of the above, all interacting, occurring simultaneously(but likely slightly out of phase), and on the largest possible scale. We are both teachers. One subject I teach deals with fluid mechanics and heat transfer/balance on a comparatively small scale. That is complicated enough, or at least my students think so lol.

Lol. Try teaching monetary policy to apathetic inner city teens. “So if the fed raises the discount rate what effect would that have on....hey get off your phone!”

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Lol. Try teaching monetary policy to apathetic inner city teens. “So if the fed raises the discount rate what effect would that have on....hey get off your phone!”

I don't think I could teach kids honestly. I mean some of my students are "kids", like 22. Bad enough.

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I admire teachers because that takes a special gift...My mother and both her parents were middle and high school teachers...but that gene skipped me, lol Couldn't do it!!

I never thought I would be doing this lol. Just sort of fell into it. I teach merchant marines, US Navy, MSC, etc. All maritime related stuff.

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Carver Vo Tech High. The one in West Baltimore not the one in Towson. 

I taught at history at New Hope Academy (which is now Joseph Briscoe) for a year right after the riots. I loved the kids but the whole experience was quite challenging. Now I teach at Parkdale High in College Park and I love it.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Umm, its February. 

I understood the article.  The hope is that whatever forcing amplifies the TNH and amplifies the SE ridge loses forcing once March begins.  If so, it isn't too late for big snow.

Here are some red letter dates for  Balto-Wash area:

 

11-14 March 1888

27-28 March 1891

15-16 March 1900

4 March 1909

16-17 March 1931

7-8 March 1941

28-29 March 1942

18-19 March 1956

18-21 March 1958

2-5 March 1960

5-7 March 1962

21-22 March 1964

8-9 March 1984

12-13 March 1993

2-5 March 1994

 

 

 

12-14 March 1993

8-9 March 1984

2-4 March 1994

 

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1 minute ago, Inthepines said:

I taught at history at New Hope Academy (which is now Joseph Briscoe) for a year right after the riots. I loved the kids but the whole experience was quite challenging. Now I each at Parkdale High in College Park and I love it.

You probably know this...but I love the kids who are engaged. But I teach a tested area and they expect broad results (and even if i could I wouldn’t just pass everyone it’s unethical) and it’s getting harder and harder to produce the numbers they want. Most days my attendance is only about 50%.  The students who participate in class and complete my assignments almost always pass the test. But that’s less than half my students and the kids who show up once a week or play video games on their phone everyday count too. Even coaching debate is becoming difficult. In the past we’ve won a city championship and a State championship as well as qualified for nationals 3 times. But the last couple years it’s getting hard to even field a team. Finding kids willing to research and practice and show up at tournaments is getting harder. It’s becoming more and more frustrating. I want to keep going for the kids who are awesome and need someone who hasn’t given up on them and cares about them but some of the crap is getting to me. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You probably know this...but I love the kids who are engaged. But I teach a tested area and they expect broad results (and even if i could I wouldn’t just pass everyone it’s unethical) and it’s getting harder and harder to produce the numbers they want. Most days my attendance is only about 50%.  The students who participate in class and complete my assignments almost always pass the test. But that’s less than half my students and the kids who show up once a week or play video games on their phone everyday count too. Even coaching debate is becoming difficult. In the past we’ve won a city championship and a State championship as well as qualified for nationals 3 times. But the last couple years it’s getting hard to even field a team. Finding kids willing to research and practice and show up at tournaments is getting harder. It’s becoming more and more frustrating. I want to keep going for the kids who are awesome and need someone who hasn’t given up on them and cares about them but some of the crap is getting to me. 

First of all, I admire your passion for helping the kids because you’re exactly right, everyone has given up on them. It’s incredibly unfair that the city has such high expectations for testing at the high school level because by the time these kids get to high school many of them have already been failed by the system and are reading at a third grade reading level. Honestly, dealing with my administration and the bureaucracy of city schools was the toughest part of teaching there.

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@C.A.P.E. the last two runs the gefs trended back to blocking...only it did it starting around day 9 not 15. Eps is kind of close too but not quite enough ridge up top to drop the hammer the way the gefs does. Eps wasn’t bad.  Cold day 10-15 but nothing amazing and a dry look. Some snow hits. But gefs goes nuts into the first week of March. I said get it inside day 10. If the eps makes a move that way tonight maybe it’s got a chance. 

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. the last two runs the gefs trended back to blocking...only it did it starting around day 9 not 15. Eps is kind of close too but not quite enough ridge up top to drop the hammer the way the gefs does. Eps wasn’t bad.  Cold day 10-15 but nothing amazing and a dry look. Some snow hits. But gefs goes nuts into the first week of March. I said get it inside day 10. If the eps makes a move that way tonight maybe it’s got a chance. 

EPS looks good beginning around day 9 as well. Again it's sort of luke warm on the blocking, with a ridge poking into GL, but the biggest +heights are clearly over towards Scandinavia. Weakens it towards the end of the run. Has the 50-50 look though. Overall not a bad run. SE/WA ridge looks flat/weaker on the mean beyond day 8, but it never really dies.

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18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS looks good beginning around day 9 as well. Again it's sort of luke warm on the blocking, with a ridge poking into GL, but the biggest +heights are clearly over towards Scandinavia. Weakens it towards the end of the run. Has the 50-50 look though. Overall not a bad run. SE/WA ridge looks flat/weaker on the mean beyond day 8, but it never really dies.

i saw it...would be more excited if it was in mid winter...not the end of the month. So meh...

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