Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 ICON gets rid of the high too quickly... snow at 108 turns to wintry mix by 114The start of a terrible suite coming up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What does he have against Tuesday? Not a CAD fan? CAD makes some people angry. Richmond may not be in that game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 DCA sits at 32 for 117 and 120... I guess light freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, yoda said: ICON gets rid of the high too quickly... snow at 108 turns to wintry mix by 114 The start of a terrible suite coming up? No. Unless you wanted snow. Then yes. Seriously the way this winter has gone with model runs and last minute rug pulling you didn’t think the 0z suite would hold or improve did you? All your rules still apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 No. Unless you wanted snow. Then yes. Seriously the way this winter has gone with model runs and last minute rug pulling you didn’t think the 0z suite would hold or improve did you? All your rules still apply. No...I wanted rain so I'm fine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Icon man, you were just starting to make friends in here (Yes i know it’s not gonna be a great run every time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: No. Unless you wanted snow. Then yes. Seriously the way this winter has gone with model runs and last minute rug pulling you didn’t think the 0z suite would hold or improve did you? All your rules still apply. No...I wanted rain so I'm fine Good then all is well. Icon is way worse than 18z. Not debbing jiust observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 Good then all is well. Icon is way worse than 18z. Not debbing jiust observation. Yes it's a terrible run. Snow starts too late...ends too early. Hopefully it's not sniffing out a new trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 Gfs too south for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good then all is well. Icon is way worse than 18z. Not debbing jiust observation. Yes it's a terrible run. Snow starts too late...ends too early. Hopefully it's not sniffing out a new trend That's called bad trend paranoia...can't let the fear take over the logic of the fact that it's just one run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good then all is well. Icon is way worse than 18z. Not debbing jiust observation. Yes it's a terrible run. Snow starts too late...ends too early. Hopefully it's not sniffing out a new trend The trend is already there on the Icon. Click back to 0z 15 Feb to now. Watch the 546dm line. Ignore the pretty dark blue colors. Watch that line migrate NE. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's called bad trend paranoia...can't let the fear take over the logic of the fact that it's just one run! It’s not 1 run...it’s 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 That's called bad trend paranoia...can't let the fear take over the logic of the fact that it's just one run!The whole setup is pecaroius. Deep western trough and massive se ridge dosent make me comfortable for this event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The trend is already there on the Icon. Click back to 0z 15 Feb to now. Watch the 546dm line. Ignore the pretty dark blue colors. Watch that line migrate NE. It is what it is. Your paranoia over the north trend for tomorrow’s storm was certainly the right call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's called bad trend paranoia...can't let the fear take over the logic of the fact that it's just one run! The whole setup is pecaroius. Deep western trough and massive se ridge dosent make me comfortable for this event How many of our setups AREN'T precarious in one way or another? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s not 1 run...it’s 4 How's that north trend for tomorrow looking? Asking for a friend... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 LWX went with high confidence this afternoon NW of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Your paranoia over the north trend for tomorrow’s storm was certainly the right call. You’re right. The 546 line still migrated NE on the Icon for 4 runs. My paranoia about Saturday doesn’t change that. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Gfs is another nice run. Maybe a tick colder too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Gfs is another nice run. Maybe a tick colder too But how's the 546dm line!!!11!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, yoda said: But how's the 546dm line!!!11!! Only issue I see is that it’s a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’re right. The 546 line still migrated NE on the Icon for 4 runs. My paranoia about Saturday doesn’t change that. Just an observation. Yeah but notice that the HP is basically in the same spot across runs - it's just a weaker HP each time. Shows how much this is going to depend on getting strong enough HP to hold on and could still easily go either way. Edit: GFS comes in with 1039 HP vs 1032 on the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Only issue I see is that it’s a bit slower. That is a problem to be honest... as mentioned by a few on here earlier, slower isn't good, we want fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Only issue I see is that it’s a bit slower. Speed it up by 3-6 hours and it’d be a really healthy thump. Weenie handbook says precip breaks out quicker than modeled in WAA setups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Pretty remarkable consistency from the models at 100+ hours. Just small changes. Of course with this setup small changed can make a big difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Speed it up by 3-6 hours and it’d be a really healthy thump. Weenie handbook says precip breaks out quicker than modeled in WAA setups. Weenie handbook also says GFS better with northern stream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 FV3 looks like destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: FV3 looks like destruction. We need a storm where the is pulled out to describe a model run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Much less precip on the 00z gfs compared to 18z while 850's are still okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: We need a storm where the is pulled out to describe a model run. Don’t want to commit until I can see the pretty TT maps but the NCEP map looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts