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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Not to be a downer, but it is worth noting the FV3 does flip to rain and dumps ~0.75"+ in the 24 hours after that change-over.  Of course the same amount or more falls before that, as snow/ice.

I wonder though if it's not doing CAD long enough?  Still... it's a good run outside of the rain lol 

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Just now, yoda said:

I wonder though if it's not doing CAD long enough?  Still... it's a good run outside of the rain lol 

Probably isn't holding CAD quite enough...and yeah, it is a much better run than previously for sure!  Sort of related, I think the Euro just kind of dry-slotted us instead at the end?

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Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

so Bob is going to sit out what could be our 2nd best storm this season lol....okay...thats like Tom Brady playing all the regular season games but sitting out the AFC championship

Hope not.  He is a good egg.  Maybe his inner weenie will pop out and convince him.

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4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. 

yes

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. 

Depends how far north the primary tracks, the strength of the CAD, and when/where, and to what degree the coastal develops. If there is no coastal development/transfer, there will be a transition to rain as the mids and low level temps will warm quicker, from SE to NW.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Depends how far north the primary tracks, the strength of the CAD, and when/where, and to what degree the coastal develops. If there is no coastal development/transfer, there will be a transition to rain as the mids and low level temps will warm quicker, from SE to NW.

for this kind of event...and how dicey the 500mb are...i mean there is a western trough and a SE ridge!...not seeing a surface low is kind of saving us...gfs_T850_us_20.png

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

for this kind of event...and how dicey the 500mb are...i mean there is a western trough and a SE ridge!...not seeing a surface low is kind of saving us...gfs_T850_us_20.png

Not sure the wedge holds without some coastal development. Ideally the primary tracks into TN and we see a coastal form off of NC.

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21 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. 

Absolutely...I don't think there's any way to avoid some kind of all-rain at some point with this setup.  But it would be nice if that period occurred during a relative dry-slot as the main precip moved out.

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37 minutes ago, Ji said:

what feels good is that its Friday night and the storm basiccally develops Monday nights. its not 5-7 days away. My demarcation point of when i start taking a storm seriously is when it still has it at 132 hours. We are basically at 96 hours and thats a big surge of moisture lol

The storm is a lock dude.  Precip type isn’t.  That’s our main concern.  The mountain top would be stronger CAD and redevelopment off of hatteras.  Middle solution is what we have now.  Valley is a delayed arrival and a Rainer. 

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Snow/sleet, whatever. Its frozen, and better than 12z. Lets keep it moving in a favorable direction. No setbacks.

fv3.thumb.png.ae66dc414777aa8100e5a484905579d0.png

We’re gonna I’ve setbacks.  That’s just the nature of the game.  Nobody needs to jump. That map is probably peak FV3. Nowhere else to go but down. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We’re gonna I’ve setbacks.  That’s just the nature of the game.  Nobody needs to jump. That map is probably peak FV3. Nowhere else to go but down. 

So I’m not getting 17 inches of frozen? This is a fine kettle of fish!

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The storm is a lock dude.  Precip type isn’t.  That’s our main concern.  The mountain top would be stronger CAD and redevelopment off of hatteras.  Middle solution is what we have now.  Valley is a delayed arrival and a Rainer. 

At the risk of annoying somebody with a question (but it's off model hours so it oughta be okay, lol)...

I'm trying to learn how that redevelopment off of Hatteras would work. So say the low trends to eastern TN...then what happens?

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