MD Snow Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: The icon man Sniffed it out 48hrs ago...when the euro had a cutter rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We had almost the complete opposite with the EPO ridge too far west, really a north pac ridge more than an EPO ridge at times. Oh yes, part of the reason(s) we had poor snow outcomes and alluded to by others and HM of course. But, this hits the nail on the head : From HM << Interestingly, the strong Scandinavian High Novembers with a +MEI tended to have this N Pac High and RNA tendency in February when you subtracted out the Scandinavian Low Novembers with a +MEI. Who remembers this? >>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Not a surprise what the Euro did if you think about this for a second First time since the end of December with a real dive down , I believe it will happen too ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Euro actually has been showing a decent Cad setup for days. Its just been going back and forth with any front end snow ...its always been showing a fairly stout zrain event I think since Tuesday nights run Yes. It's now really drilling down the cold. Gets our area almost into the low 20's at the height of the storm. Want to see this trend continue. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Pretty strong consensus of a western TN primary track of varying strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 FWIW, the mean snowfall through 12z Thursday doubled for most of the area. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 lol it's real time Check out this warmth in Europe. (They stole our SE ridge.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: FWIW, the mean snowfall through 12z Thursday doubled for most of the area. IMO this is a case when those maps actually do have some worth- when there is a pretty clearly defined threat inside of a week. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: lol it's real time Check out this warmth in Europe. (They stole our SE ridge.) unfortunately they left your keyboard 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: IMO this is a case when those maps actually do have some worth- when there is a pretty clearly defined threat inside of a week. the EPS snowfall doesn't have that funky problem with the snowfall algorithm like the GEFS either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: IMO this is a case when those maps actually do have some worth- when there is a pretty clearly defined threat inside of a week. Let's hope, here is the comparison. The tracks look pretty close to what the OP spit out so I would expect similar results. I think those that are faster with getting precip here have the bigger hits but this is a nice signal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: lol it's real time Check out this warmth in Europe. (They stole our SE ridge.) too bad that is not going to retrograde 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 There is remarkably good agreement across guidance for this lead time. Now the trick is for this threat to become incrementally more favorable with time instead of less. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, Ji said: too bad that is not going to retrograde It might turn into -NAO.. we usually don't have north atlantic trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, LP08 said: Pretty strong consensus of a western TN primary track of varying strength. Wow, that seems like an unusually small amount of variance for more than 100 hours out. Strong support for the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 @C.A.P.E. perhaps our shared "vision" of long range doom can be put on hold right now. Not saying we have to call it off completely...but there are some positive signs right now. The last 24 hours there have been some pretty drastic changes and they start around day 8 honestly. There has been a trend towards more high latitude ridging in that period. It faded on the EPS and carried through on the GEFS but either way that trend in day 8-10 could be significant. Could...maybe...guidance be starting to pick up on this? But there is a definite move towards shifting the cold east and not just way out at day 15 anymore. The SE ridge gets flattened and towards the end the GEFS today shifts the TPV down into northern Quebec. The NAO is only slightly negative but if we get a TPV displacement into Quebec we don't need some super NAO block...that is one of the "other" ways to get it done here. Way too far out given the issues with long range this year, but the extreme changes suddenly in some core features long range to me says the guidance could be in flux and just starting to pick up on the changing pacific tropical forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Let's hope, here is the comparison. The tracks look pretty close to what the OP spit out so I would expect similar results. I think those that are faster with getting precip here have the bigger hits but this is a nice signal. That is a CLASSIC CAD signature on the snowfall mean right there. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. perhaps our shared "vision" of long range doom can be put on hold right now. Not saying we have to call it off completely...but there are some positive signs right now. The last 24 hours there have been some pretty drastic changes and they start around day 8 honestly. There has been a trend towards more high latitude ridging in that period. It faded on the EPS and carried through on the GEFS but either way that trend in day 8-10 could be significant. Could...maybe...guidance be starting to pick up on this? But there is a definite move towards shifting the cold east and not just way out at day 15 anymore. The SE ridge gets flattened and towards the end the GEFS today shifts the TPV down into northern Quebec. The NAO is only slightly negative but if we get a TPV displacement into Quebec we don't need some super NAO block...that is one of the "other" ways to get it done here. Way too far out given the issues with long range this year, but the extreme changes suddenly in some core features long range to me says the guidance could be in flux and just starting to pick up on the changing pacific tropical forcing. Maybe yesterday's 12z EPS was the "worst" look we get for the upcoming period. The 0z run was better towards D15. Lets see what today's run looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That is a CLASSIC CAD signature on the snowfall mean right there. wow---remember when the euro EPS mean had like 9-10 inches a week ago...this storm was a big part of that. Nice rebound 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Maybe yesterday's 12z EPS was the "worst" look we get for the upcoming period. The 0z run was better towards D15. Lets see what today's run looks like. Agreed...I actually think the 0z the weeklies was based on was slightly worse than 12z yesterday. Maybe not in terms of our region specifically but the 12z had slightly more ridging over the top and that is EVERYTHING here. If there is just enough poleward ridging to suppress the trough as it moves east some the pattern can work. But if the NAO and AO go hard core positive and everything consolidates into the TPV up over the pole...its game set match for winter here. That one feature is the whole game wrt where this goes after next week. So while 12z yesterday was crap...it was a slight move away from the total cliff the 0z the night before was. We saw how that run ended on the weeklies lol. That run was good for causing some mass weenie suicides though! At least we got some fun out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Maybe yesterday's 12z EPS was the "worst" look we get for the upcoming period. The 0z run was better towards D15. Lets see what today's run looks like. what phase are we right now. that chart is hard to read sometimes? Phase 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, LP08 said: Let's hope, here is the comparison. The tracks look pretty close to what the OP spit out so I would expect similar results. I think those that are faster with getting precip here have the bigger hits but this is a nice signal. Thanks for posting the comparison. I’ve been outside restacking firewood so haven’t had time to look too much into detail at the EPS. Between a strong signal on the EPS and pretty close guidance across the global at 12z, its hard not to be cautiously optimistic (even if I jumped last night in the Panic room...one too many Tito’s+soda ). As CAPE said, lets hope it holds/improves from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: what phase are we right now. that chart is hard to read sometimes? Phase 8? 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: what phase are we right now. that chart is hard to read sometimes? Phase 8? Basically on the edge of 7/8...I think its where the bigger black dot is (and where the green line starts which Is the forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agreed...I actually think the 0z the weeklies was based on was slightly worse than 12z yesterday. Maybe not in terms of our region specifically but the 12z had slightly more ridging over the top and that is EVERYTHING here. If there is just enough poleward ridging to suppress the trough as it moves east some the pattern can work. But if the NAO and AO go hard core positive and everything consolidates into the TPV up over the pole...its game set match for winter here. That one feature is the whole game wrt where this goes after next week. So while 12z yesterday was crap...it was a slight move away from the total cliff the 0z the night before was. We saw how that run ended on the weeklies lol. That run was good for causing some mass weenie suicides though! At least we got some fun out of it. Yeah you might be right. The 12z yesterday run kinda lost any hint of a -NAO though, but overall it was probably a tad better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Basically on the edge of 7/8...I think its where the bigger black dot is (and where the green line starts which Is the forecast). so by the time the storm hits wed...we will be in phase 8 lol..which is usually cold and stormy in the east LOL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: so by the time the storm hits wed...we will be in phase 8 lol..which is usually cold and stormy in the east LOL For the love of GOD....call JB and DO NOT LET HIM UNCANCEL WINTER!!!! Tie him up or smash his computer if you have too...but please god don't let him uncancel it. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: For the love of GOD....call JB and DO NOT LET HIM UNCANCEL WINTER!!!! Tie him up or smash his computer if you have too...but please god don't let him uncancel it. ive learned that everyone has a long way to go. Earlier we thought that the storm fizziling this saturday and not becoming a 50 50 low might turn the wed storm into rain...weather is gonna do what it wants to...no matter what phase. One thing forecasters should consider is not to change anything for 24-48 hours after bad runs. You dont know if its a hiccup...or trend.....you can literally go from a weenie GFS ensembles run to winter over in 12 hours per modeling and then back to weenie 24 hours later 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: unfortunately they left your keyboard Will be very cold here 3/1-3/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 the voice of reJiason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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