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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
There are some serious changes going on with the long range guidance right now, and I actually like most of it...but I will save that for after the euro play by play.  

Wasn't winter over yesterday lol

yesterday here or yesterday in Australia?  I can't keep it straight anymore.

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Don't get me wrong...that isn't bad at all... but if you get that surface low just a little further east into TN it would increase the WAA forcing into our area even more and maybe get a better thump...but it would also probably encourage the low to jump to the coast from there...if its coming up that far west its going to continue to want to press north west of the mountains into the weakness there.  I am NOT debbing this look...its a good look for some front end action, just saying if we wanted this to be even bigger getting that primary into eastern TN instead of western would be one way to do it.  

So in other words...perhaps this run isn't that far from that higher scenario?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So in other words...perhaps this run isn't that far from that higher scenario?

sure...shift the boundary east a little and this becomes a BIG storm.  Of course shift it west some and suddenly its just a little frozen to rain again.  I would be happy with what its throwing out there now.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ice isn't done until 7pm Wed.  The CAD is mean on the Euro

Mids hang on a bit longer too, compared to 12Z yesterday (looking at TT output, limited amount of detail).  At 12Z Wed. in today's run, 850 line is still well south of here...yesterday's 12Z had it already long gone at the same time.  And even last night's 00Z, it was north of us (around the M/D line) at 00Z Wed.

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