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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I keep reading posts about the ICON and GFS and what a thump it is and how much moisture there is streaming our way and then I look at it's like 4-6 inches. And this is the big storm? Does not compute.

It's not like we've been getting 1 foot storms every week.   A man in a desert thinks a 4 oz cup of water is a big deal.  

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10 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I keep reading posts about the ICON and GFS and what a thump it is and how much moisture there is streaming our way and then I look at it's like 4-6 inches. And this is the big storm? Does not compute.

The system is weak.  That is key.  So you don’t flood the mid levels.  Also it approaches almost from the south.  The key for DCA up through my area is you want any type of overrunning storm or southwest flown event to have a weak upper air or surface reflection and approach from as southerly a latitude as possible.  If you are too amped or approach from too high a latitude you generally get too warm in the mid levels and eventually the surface too.  These sort of events were common back in the 70s/80s/early 90s but since then the tendency has been for most overrunning events to be too strong and they’ve been New England specials

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14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I keep reading posts about the ICON and GFS and what a thump it is and how much moisture there is streaming our way and then I look at it's like 4-6 inches. And this is the big storm? Does not compute.

Well you were the guy who got upset when the GEFS lost 3’ members

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's not like we've been getting 1 foot storms every week.   A man in a desert thinks a 4 oz cup of water is a big deal.  

God:  I see you are dying of thirst, my son osfan24.  Here, sip this water of life from my chalice that you may be revived!

osfan24:  But the water has a speck of dirt in it!  And only 4 oz left!

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

much bigger improvement--wasnt it a warm cutter yesterday

The models were over pumping the SE ridge with it going back a good week from when it first started showing up.   This may be a product of the models realizing we aren’t entrenched strongly in phase 6 or 7 of the MJO anymore.  The guidance has reacted late to the SE ridge behavior all winter in regards to the MJO.  A big reason the mid January event trended warm so late is the MJO headed back into 5 wasn’t being given enough credit by the models on how it would pump heights until we got to about 84 hours out 

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33 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Same.  That's why I was kinda half serious when I said it wasn't in it's prime.  When the Euro had something 4 days, we all would be excited because you just knew that thing was a lock.   Now, I don't trust it at all.  Probably crazy talk, but I'm tired of getting burned this winter.

The euro seemed to become a little more jumpy with storm track details after they started upgrading its resolution significantly several years ago.  It's overall scores have improved, and it no doubt made the model better in many ways...but it seems to be a little less consistent.  

I also think some of this is expectations... I can remember back in the 90's and 2000's we really didn't take anything day 3-5 that seriously.  Remember the high resolution guidance didn't even run past 48 hours back then, and stuff out at day 4-5 was considered a pipe dream kind of like we look at day 10 stuff now.  But lately, because guidance has improved some, and we have seen a lot of storms stick and hold from day 7...we start looking at details and exact storm tracks of systems 4-5 days away.  But the fact that such a weak and overall insignificant system changed a little bit from that range shouldn't be shocking.  I think while guidance has improved a lot, our expectations in the medium to long range went up more than they did. 

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20 minutes ago, Ji said:

much bigger improvement--wasnt it a warm cutter yesterday

The GGEM has been over amped all winter with EVERY storm.  Remember when it was crushing us with the December storm?  Just 48 hours ago it was taking the storm tomorrow up into central PA and missing me to the NORTH with heavy snow lol.  I wouldn't even waste my time with it right now, its just adding noise.  

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We might get the oppurtunity to track at the end of the month and early March after this coming up period. . 

Wonder if  what webber weather mentioned about the NAO manifests itself in 10 days, but regardless,  HM states some things going in our favor in the Pac. So, maybe we might score in early to mid March.  

 

  

 

 

 

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12Z Ukie looks fairly similar to the rest of the 12z suite.  Drives a primary west of the region then develops a secondary of the NC coast.  No idea on temps but the overall progression looked the same.

You can see on the map a weak primary with a secondary forming off the coast.

Ukie12z_storm.png

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Just now, LP08 said:

12Z Ukie looks fairly similar to the rest of the 12z suite.  Drives a primary west of the region then develops a secondary of the NC coast.  No idea on temps but the overall progression looked the same.

You can see on the map a weak primary with a secondary forming off the coast.

Ukie12z_storm.png

Man if we had a strong banana high of about 1050 and stop the primary in TN.  If only 

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13 minutes ago, LP08 said:

12Z Ukie looks fairly similar to the rest of the 12z suite.  Drives a primary west of the region then develops a secondary of the NC coast.  No idea on temps but the overall progression looked the same.

You can see on the map a weak primary with a secondary forming off the coast.

Ukie12z_storm.png

12z UKMET is snow through probably 123 or so for DCA.  At 126, 0c 850 line is just north of DCA but just south of BWI/HGR and C MD to the M/D line.  Temps are in the upper 20s for most through 123... then rise to 30 at 126... and around 32 give or take a degree at 129/132 and sit there for the rest of the run

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24 minutes ago, frd said:

Something to chew on, we were lacking this feature.   

 

 

The failure to get the Aleutian low this year was by far the biggest problem is getting the consistent cold/snowy look we expected.  We have had snowy nino's with or without the NAO but that trough SW of Alaska is the one universal feature in almost all those good years!  We had almost the complete opposite with the EPO ridge too far west, really a north pac ridge more than an EPO ridge at times.  

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