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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps?  The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here 

98333AD6-0679-4E79-97D8-36EF3E7DDF86.thumb.png.5499ebcf7c20c3eedf01184c8512f38e.png

that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. 

That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. 

But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge!

 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps?  The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here 

98333AD6-0679-4E79-97D8-36EF3E7DDF86.thumb.png.5499ebcf7c20c3eedf01184c8512f38e.png

that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. 

That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. 

But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge!

 

It’s probably the insanely warm SSTs in the western Atlantic....no idea lol  

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38 minutes ago, Ji said:

how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and  now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high

It’s going to snow in VA Saturday. Next week it will snow somewhere in the northeast. Might be way north of us but he cancelled for the northeast and New England too remember!  He was exaggerating and going to bust anyways. 

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41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps?  The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here 

98333AD6-0679-4E79-97D8-36EF3E7DDF86.thumb.png.5499ebcf7c20c3eedf01184c8512f38e.png

that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. 

That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. 

But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge!

 

It's only 10 days away, what could possibly go wrong?

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57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps?  The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here 

98333AD6-0679-4E79-97D8-36EF3E7DDF86.thumb.png.5499ebcf7c20c3eedf01184c8512f38e.png

that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. 

That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. 

But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge!

 

Just taking the simplistic approach, I'm gonna guess that panel represents a transition from the western ridge being too far west/positive tilted, with a deep W coast US trough, to a more amplified/easterly and neutrally oriented  EPO ridge, with the trough axis further east and the SE ridge flattened. Too lazy to post it but look at  D10 prior to that panel, and then D15, where the long-wave pattern is (apparently) headed.

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just taking the simplistic approach, I'm gonna guess that panel represents a transition from the western ridge being too far west/positive tilted, with a deep W coast US trough, to a more amplified/easterly and neutrally oriented  EPO ridge, with the trough axis further east and the SE ridge flattened. Too lazy to post it but look at  D10 prior to that panel, and then D15, where the long-wave pattern is (apparently) headed.

Id like to see that se ridge gone though. It gets harder to win a boundary war in March. 18z gefs looks like total crap day 8 on imo. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Id like to see that se ridge gone though. It gets harder to win a boundary war in March. 18z gefs looks like total crap day 8 on imo. 

Agreed. What worries me at the end of the EPS run, even though the SE ridge is shunted out, is the lack of red up top. Project that out a few more days and it might not be pretty.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agreed. What worries me at the end of the EPS run, even though the SE ridge is shunted out, is the lack of red up top. Project that out a few more days and it might not be pretty,

You don’t have to project. Last nights eps was very similar and the new weeklies show exactly what it ends up as 

12AF9EC2-CFE6-4275-8F6A-990696AA7D53.thumb.png.6a5195ed3da70365b853be6719e75334.png

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

You can totally bank on the weeklies proving useful for once with that look.  :P

 

Never know, but The EPS has been pretty weak with the ridging over GL, and today pretty must lost it. AO has looked ambiguous too. Both had signs. Instead of seeing a deep trough progressing eastward in the LR on recent runs, we have been seeing it further north, on the verge of receding into Canada. Not a good "trend".

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19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Forgot about the weeklies lol. Well, there it is!

It’s funny I had totally forgot about them until you said what you did about the eps and then I went and looked. It was exactly what we expected. 

I kind of started having that not good feeling when the NAO again failed and the trough starting to trend towards lifting instead of progressing east.  That goes nowhere good.

Last night when I saw the eps lifting the trough over the se ridge I thought the weeklies are gonna be ugly. They didn’t disappoint. Flat out horrid awful run. Couldn’t be any worse. The se ridge holds straight to spring.  

Watch this will be the first time all winter they are right!

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23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So in other words...we need to hope for a hail mary for next week--or else many of us may have seen our last accumulating snowfall (or could be seeing the last of it on Saturday). Mercy...

We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter!  After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. 

It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s probably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter!  After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. 

It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s provably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. 

Next winter looks like a weak Niño at best right now.  It could even be neutral  

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter!  After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. 

It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s provably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. 

Troll mode, I see. I didn't mean last for a long time...just last for the season, dang it! I'm higher on next year, actually (I kinda started off the season that way--that one of the two winters would produce. On one end of a solar minimum or the other...we seem to have better winters overall)

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter!  After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. 

It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s provably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. 

You are saying this in jest, but this scenario is very much on the table.  Maybe with the exception of the super nino.

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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You are saying this in jest, but this scenario is very much on the table.

No it's not...2023? Heck no. Look at our history...not even the longest snow droughts lasted that long. The 1970s were the only time I could find, really. 2 other periods in the 50s and late 80s to early 90s had 4 years in a row...but the average was 2-3 consecutive years in a row. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are probably done for a while. We missed our chance. This was the low solar modoki nino year that should of been a huge snow year. But fluke things like the sswe and mjo ruined it. Last time we had a weak modoki nino we transitioned to a super nino. We got lucky with one storm but odds favor that not repeating. So next year is likely a repeat of 2016 without the HECS. Think December 2015 but all winter!  After that we probably have a couple years of Nina to get through. But by 2023 we might have a shot again. Just have to get through the next 3 bad years first. 

It wont be all bad. We might get at least some snow. Odds favor maybe 3-4” next winter for the season. Maybe a couple 1” events and 2” on the front of a cutter that washes it away. After that the two Nina’s provably are 5-10” years. A few healthy 1-2” clippers. Maybe if we’re lucky a 2-4” event somewhere. By 2023 we might get another warning event. If another sswe doesn’t screw it up again. 

Jeez I'm not sure I will even be alive the next time there is a warning level event. :mellow:

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No it's not...2023? Heck no. Look at our history...not even the longest snow droughts lasted that long.

There is no snow drought.  Eastern areas were above climo the last 2 years, and southern areas are above this year.  The snow drought is local.  Bad luck.  Weather is not looking to even anything up.  We'll likely suffer through several Nina's before we see another nino, especially a modoki.  Check our nina climo snow.

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Jeez I'm not sure I will even be alive the next time there is a warning level event. :mellow:

I will. I’m out. It’s not worth it. I’ve been planning on Colorado or Northern New England for a while. I think it’s time. Why have to wait?  Go somewhere where a disaster is only getting 75”!   I’ll still pop in now and then to say how great the weeklies look though!

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