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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hope something shows up in the medium range that can save this thing enough to NOT be as much of a mix...time to root for that 50/50! :D (Now, how long before we have to take such a development off the table?)

Hopefully it can drop a spear on the ridge and pop it.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today)

What makes you say that?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today)

Much of Maryland has been under a winter storm warning in 5 out of the last 6 march's so you shouldn't be convinced of anything yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

What makes you say that?

I guess I have a bit of consistency bias...that nothing has worked out all winter--and that a strong finish in March is just hard to believe. Also, we don't get a lot of warning level snow here in the last week of Feb. There are some scattered occurrences, but they are rare! And we know the story on March snow...sometimes, but harder to come by. I could be very wrong about this, of course...I just don't like the idea of having to rely on March to save winter in Central MD.

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46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Also, we don't get a lot of warning level snow here in the last week of Feb. There are some scattered occurrences, but they are rare!

This is true of any week in any winter, really.  That certain time periods have more snow events compared to others is somewhat due to chance, somewhat also due to actual climatological factors I suppose.  But that doesn't preclude any time between December and March.  I remember in 2016, there was some discussion that we've had really good snows in early and late January, but none really around the 3rd week (maybe due to the fact that's the climatologically coldest time of year, and tends to be drier on average).  Then we got the blizzard with 20"+ on the Jan. 22-23.  Irony at its finest!

I've been here since summer of 2001.  Never saw a decent March snow at all until 2009.  Then we got on a relative March heater with an event in late March 2013, three solid events in 2014, another in early March 2015, and yet another in both 2017 and 2018 (those two took a bit of the edge off a couple of crap winters, too).  Heck, I saw good snow on my birthday (on the 25th) in back-to-back years in 2013 and 2014.  In fact, I'd almost argue that I've seen more snow events in March than December since I've lived here...though of course one of those December ones was a HECS in 2009!

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