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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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with the trend away from strong HP in front we probably need a weaker storm at this point.  Something amplified probably creates too much southerly flow and we go to rain.  Not even sure ice anymore given the trends in the thermal profile the last 24 hours.  But there is still room for it to work out if we get tight spacing and weaker waves.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

with the trend away from strong HP in front we probably need a weaker storm at this point.  Something amplified probably creates too much southerly flow and we go to rain.  Not even sure ice anymore given the trends in the thermal profile the last 24 hours.  But there is still room for it to work out if we get tight spacing and weaker waves.  

it will probably end up a further south version of what you just experienced earlier this week...which is fine..few inches of snow then ice or something like it... but that deep CAD signature and historic ice storm seems outlier now...but who knows

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...Gefs has been trending less amplified the last few runs so maybe a good thing . Haven't looked at Eps though

It's also backing off on the northern stream low tracking across the lakes above it. This was creating weakness and helping allow midlevels to warm easily. The low is barely there on this run. 

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42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And this is why the EPS looks like crap... if there are other negative influences, such as isotherm talks about...this might not be enough of a signal to overcome that.  The forcing certainly is located in the right places but the wave is weak sauce...figure that after an amped up ape mjo through warm phases all winter it would become a wimp when it finally makes it into cold phases.  lol

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif.e74e746366b857ee261e0fc62d2357e2.gif

If the EPS is the most reliable model for the MJO, then this is really bad news. Is it naive to hope for something closer to the CFS look?

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...Gefs has been trending less amplified the last few runs so maybe a good thing . Haven't looked at Eps though

Don't, it was depressing.  Weaker wave but also pushed the thermal boundary way north so it was mostly just rain or ice without much snow anywhere, even north of us.  

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's also backing off on the northern stream low tracking across the lakes above it. This was creating weakness and helping allow midlevels to warm easily. The low is barely there on this run. 

I kind of like the way the GFS is heading...its losing the "big storm" potential but evolving towards a way we can score a simple moderate snow.  I am totally fine with that.  But need to see euro go that way.  

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6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If the EPS is the most reliable MJO forecaster, then this is really bad news. Is it naive to hope for something closer to the CFS look?

yes, but its not out of the question to expect a compromise between the more amplified GFS/CFS camp and the euro.  The CMC is kind of in the middle...even if the compromise is 70/30 towards the euro that would still be a good look...just get that wave out of the COD into decent amplitude.  

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I kind of like the way the GFS is heading...its losing the "big storm" potential but evolving towards a way we can score a simple moderate snow.  I am totally fine with that.  But need to see euro go that way.  

dude--i dont   want a moderate storm. I liked it way before where it was heavy snow 4 inches and killer ice. The event verbatim right now is not even worth tracking

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47 minutes ago, LP08 said:

GFS looks like a good hit incoming at 162.  Its slower, but seems to be throwing more precip into the cold.

 

Edit: Ehh. Don't forcast model runs.  It ends up with less precip but looks to stay mostly snow.

90% of these posts end up in the model run being way worse than what you think.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

dude--i dont   want a moderate storm. I liked it way before where it was heavy snow 4 inches and killer ice. The event verbatim right now is not even worth tracking

 

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So don't track it? 

Seeing as it could end up being our last shot (I no l trust long range "looks"), we may not have much of a choice! Yes, if it ends up being moderate, it may indeed be disappointing (particularly for those us 10 inches below average). But, what if that's our last shot?...Gotta track it all the way through!

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
So don't track it? 

No. Weak events are not worth tracking in late feb

Its all we got man.  We all want the giant bone in rib-eye but tuna helper is all that's on the menu.  Grab a spoon and a breath mint for after. 

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15 minutes ago, Ji said:
30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
So don't track it? 

No. Weak events are not worth tracking in late feb

Then take a break. We’ll call you when a biggie is inside 24. K?

some of us realists get tired of you dying a 1000 deaths. 

And fwiw I know u know your stuff, but that doesn’t matter much anymore. It’s tiring parsing through your rubble 

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31 minutes ago, Ji said:

dude--i dont   want a moderate storm. I liked it way before where it was heavy snow 4 inches and killer ice. The event verbatim right now is not even worth tracking

Glad you don't speak for the forum.   I'm going with 4 to 6 with no taint.    Hmm, that sounds really bad.   But you know what I mean. 

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Glad you don't speak for the forum.   I'm going with 4 to 6 with no taint.    Hmm, that sounds really bad.   But you know what I mean. 

sounds like you are balls deep into this threat.  Lets see what the Euro says but we are at a good latitude for this one. Compared to the one a two days ago that is. 

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