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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Not really sure you should be just taking a snapshot at one particular storm/time frame with the upcoming period of interest. With such a complex setup we probably should be looking at the tendencies through the whole period of time. And what I saw I didn't like in regards to that SW trough. Digging deeper and shifting west. As far as the N-Atlantic I actually though it improved. 

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Lol we’re comparing apples and oranges. I was looking at the period before that leading up to the threat next week. Your looking at the degradation after that of the whole day 7-15 period. Your right about the western trough and trends there. I was being specific to the day 4-6 period and the threat mid next week. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Even on the eps though the trough out west isn’t that diffeeent now from 3 days ago when the euro was spitting out snow solutions. I do thing the look to our north is hurting. The anomalies shifted further east, less blocking...opens the door for the se ridge to pump under/behind those features. The western ridge was there 2-3 days ago imo but the se ridge was being suppressed. Now it’s going to town and the suppression on top is lessened. 

After that day 8+ the western trough pulls back and becomes a problem that no Atlantic help can overcome. But for the threat next week day 7 I don’t see much difference with the epo and Pna. 

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You might be comparing apples to oranges here though. The run from 3 days ago was before we saw a fairly significant shift at 500s leading into this Saturdays storm. Not going to go back and compare post-Saturday storm but I would imagine it had an impact with the evolution seen overhead and into the N-Atlantic. Then again, maybe not.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

You might be comparing apples to oranges here though. The run from 3 days ago was before we saw a fairly significant shift at 500s leading into this Saturdays storm. Not going to go back and compare post-Saturday storm but I would imagine it had an impact with the evolution seen overhead and into the N-Atlantic. Then again, maybe not.

Lol we are all over the place. Your right but that was the point I was trying to make. The changes that started showing up 48 hours ago this weekend have degraded next week. Not having that bombing cutter Saturday then the failure of the Sunday wave to amplify the last 24 hours mean less suppressive flow and more se ridge next week. A couple days ago I said to bob that we might be robbing Peter to pay paul when the weekend threats showed up. It’s possible to get all to hit with perfect spacing but the loss of the cutter bomb opens the door to increased chance of total fail if the weekend misses. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol we are all over the place. Your right but that was the point I was trying to make. The changes that started showing up 48 hours ago this weekend have degraded next week. Not having that bombing cutter Saturday then the failure of the Sunday wave to amplify the last 24 hours mean less suppressive flow and more se ridge next week. A couple days ago I said to bob that we might be robbing Peter to pay paul when the weekend threats showed up. It’s possible to get all to hit with perfect spacing but the loss of the cutter bomb opens the door to increased chance of total fail if the weekend misses. 

Just waiting for the inevitable meltdowns over our early morning discussion. Should we tell them that we probably won't know what we get until we are getting it? Or should we just let them live and die with each run? :devilsmiley:

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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just waking up and trying to catch up. We are still on track for the Feb 20+ epic mother of all unicorn grand finale to winter weather patterns here?

get ready for another day of people posting 384 hour maps saying how good the atlantic looks

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While @Bob Chill goes to sleep each night and dreams about fresh DMV pow pow, @showmethesnow and @psuhoffman go sneaking into the closet with their phone flashlight on low beam. They are secretly searching high and low for their favorite shorts and T-shirt’s as a preparation for an early spring. I hope you gents find a rabid groundhog hidden in your pile of old school Costco cargo shorts. :lol:

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Just now, Scraff said:

While @Bob Chill goes to sleep each night and dreams about fresh DMV pow pow, @showmethesnow and @psuhoffman go sneaking into the closet with their phone flashlight on low beam. They are secretly searching high and low for their favorite shorts and T-shirt’s as a preparation for an early spring. I hope you gents find a rabid groundhog hidden in your pile of old school Costco cargo shorts. :lol:

Now if you are going to give me grief then get it right. I'm old school. I use a regular flashlight not my phone. ;)

p.s. Come on Camping Season. :D

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Trying to catch up things dont look that bad for late Feb. Outside of day 10 on most guidance (the se ridge thing and AN 850s and 2m) the looks are overall fairly uniform with general BN stuff and lots of threats throughout. I dont see a whole heck of alot that has changed and I think that one or maybe 2 very anomalous days of AN SE ridge heights is skewing things a little bit. If it makes a difference I think the Euro is doing it's old trick of holding and overphasing energy out West again. It seems rather isolated irt AN temps at 850 flooding basically the entire Eastern US thru the full run. It's either scoring an epic win for itself or off base in the MR and LR yet again this season. 

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Had a chance to read some of the overnight stuff here so wait....DT says epic winter coming and it was anything but epic. DT cancels winter and guidance goes berserk with epic pattern of all winter weather patterns for us. DT uncancels his cancel and his fabled Euro craps the bed and says this time I mean it winter is over. Lol....cant script this stuff.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Had a chance to read some of the overnight stuff here so wait....DT says epic winter coming and it was anything but epic. DT cancels winter and guidance goes berserk with epic pattern of all winter weather patterns for us. DT uncancels his cancel and his fabled Euro craps the bef and says this time I mean it winter is over. Lol....cant script this stuff.

I was thinking the same thing reading guidance and comments today! He needs to re-cancel so the weather pattern works against him again! 

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Biggest problem long range I see compared to better looks before is a combo of little things that add up. The biggest two are the trough out west is less positively tilted. It’s not really centered west of where it was but it’s not positively tilted so it’s pumping the ridge more instead of ejecting energy over the top and suppressing it.  

The 50/50 is more consolidated instead of a larger area of lower heights stretching back to our north. That combo creates too much space between the western trough and Atlantic one and so the ridge can pump more. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Had a chance to read some of the overnight stuff here so wait....DT says epic winter coming and it was anything but epic. DT cancels winter and guidance goes berserk with epic pattern of all winter weather patterns for us. DT uncancels his cancel and his fabled Euro craps the bed and says this time I mean it winter is over. Lol....cant script this stuff.

You convinced me...grab your pitchforks and torches and meet me at DTs 

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53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Had a chance to read some of the overnight stuff here so wait....DT says epic winter coming and it was anything but epic. DT cancels winter and guidance goes berserk with epic pattern of all winter weather patterns for us. DT uncancels his cancel and his fabled Euro craps the bed and says this time I mean it winter is over. Lol....cant script this stuff.

I was thinking the same thing. It’s seemed like when he jumped on the bandwagon, everything went badly. 

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