BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: My biggest fear came true on this run...not even a flake. Straight to ice. Long way to go brother. Looks like disaster ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: My biggest fear came true on this run...not even a flake. Straight to ice. Enjoy your ice because it's the only ice you have 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just hug the GEFS and pretend its as good as the EPS. It wins sometimes. Maybe 30%. If the Dolphins can beat the Patriots!!! In this case the gefs makes more sense. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: My biggest fear came true on this run...not even a flake. Straight to ice. Lol. Happy hour not so happy? First threat south. Second threat north. Third threat a direct hit but a degree or two off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: My biggest fear came true on this run...not even a flake. Straight to ice. If you want to get into specifics it actually is an ice storm to dry slot this run instead of thump/ice/rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is literally noise. It's a mean @ D10+. There is no significant difference comparing it to the previous run. Ji is shooketh. Was comparing it to a few night ago NA looks great to me going back several runs. No the EPS does not have as strong a -NAO look as the GEFS, but it is good enough, and has lower heights where we want it (50-50 region). Plus the ridging out west becomes more favorable. The SE ridge is pesky, but I suspect it will be more suppressed than currently advertised. Try not to micro analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's warmer. Shame. But, plot twist...it's 7 days away and get this...it will change like 387 times. You mean like this weekend when it was D7+ and it was a wound up rainstorm with no hope then morphed into 2 potential snow events? So we shouldn't jump to instant conclusions that we're screwed? Is that what your saying? Don't reply though. Nobody will listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: The positve trend the EPS had for snow for the past four days has reversed. I don't really think this is exciting , given it is a active 15 day period. But, maybe the best potential is after Feb 27. Certainly the EPS is not as enthusiastic as the GEFS. I am only using this tool as a guide and not gospel. Must be a mixture of events. As for screwing the mean, I did not look at indivdual members in regards to that. I know Bob spoke about a mix in the various members, versus all snow in his updates a little while ago. Certainly this can, and will change. People really need to stop looking at the GEFS in this type of pattern where so many mixed systems are possible. It's showing ridiculous snow outputs because it's counting a lot of ice as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Lol. Happy hour not so happy? First threat south. Second threat north. Third threat a direct hit but a degree or two off. At a reasonable level of noise, 12z and 18z gfs are basically identical for all 3 storms. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Yeah, it's warmer. Shame. But, plot twist...it's 7 days away and get this...it will change like 387 times.Ya but if we are already losing the snow now....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You mean like this weekend when it was D7+ and it was a wound up rainstorm with no hope then morphed into 2 potential snow events? So we shouldn't jump to instant conclusions that we're screwed? Is that what your saying? Don't reply though. Nobody will listen. These threads have become a disaster this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Enjoy your ice because it's the only ice you haveI'll take ice but give me high end advisory snow first as psu said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: At a reasonable level of noise, 12z and 18z gfs are basically identical for all 3 storms. Yeah I know. I’m just messing around. I’ll stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: NA looks great to me going back several runs. No the EPS does not have as strong a -NAO look as the GEFS, but it is good enough, and has lower heights where we want it (50-50 region). Plus the ridging out west becomes more favorable. The SE ridge is pesky, but I suspect it will be more suppressed than currently advertised. Try not to micro analyze. Was just going to post that. Pretty impressive - anomaly east of 50/50 considering there is no Greenland block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 @Ji uh oh it’s going south!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Has Richmond had snow since the early Dec event? He mad. A few inches just NW of Richmond for me, along with sleet. I’m somewhere around 18-19” total for the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] uh oh it’s going south!!! Cranky says the fv3 is the worst model ever made hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's warmer. Shame. But, plot twist...it's 7 days away and get this...it will change like 387 times. Ya but if we are already losing the snow now....lol Life is a sine wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Life is a sine waveI dont even know what trend we need anymore now a days. Just a snow trend I guess! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 GFS FV3 is winter storm warning type snow for 50-75% of Virginia for Saturday. Unfortunately I dont believe in that model much at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Life is a sine wave I dont even know what trend we need anymore now a days. Just a snow trend I guess! A transient 50/50 is something to look for, I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: People really need to stop looking at the GEFS in this type of pattern where so many mixed systems are possible. It's showing ridiculous snow outputs because it's counting a lot of ice as snow. Unfortunately with no NAO help and a -PNA, the majority of the time that signals a better snow chance for New England. Ive actually read them talking about how too strong a negative NAO is not great in their neck of the woods. Being the skier that I am I don’t hate that Vermont looks to be bulls eyed next two weeks but I would be pretty disappointed if not one of these waves break in our favor for mby. I do like the potential for weds-thurs next week for a thump with decent CAD. But that could very quickly turn rain if the shortwave digs too hard considering there’s no back side blocking in the flow with such a negative pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Life is a sine wave I dont even know what trend we need anymore now a days. Just a snow trend I guess! Fast flow and tight spacing = volatility on guidance. We have the current event to get through and then the Friday one. The exact track and precisely where the boundary lies in the wake are yet to be determined, and will have potentially significant impacts on the weekend event, and the ones that follow next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: GFS FV3 is winter storm warning type snow for 50-75% of Virginia for Saturday. Unfortunately I dont believe in that model much at this time. Let's go with a 50/50 split with GFS and the FV3. We both win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's warmer. Shame. But, plot twist...it's 7 days away and get this...it will change like 387 times. 28 FYP hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 You forgot to count the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Wonder what's more liky to improve the the snow chance next week: A transient 50/50 from one of the waves, or blocking up top (or is the blocking/no blocking part of it already set in stone?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wonder what's more liky to improve the the snow chance next week: A transient 50/50 from one of the waves, or blocking up top (or is the blocking/no blocking part of it already set in stone?) Both. They tend to go hand in hand- a ridge up top and a semi-permanent vortex stuck underneath, which tends to produce the desired result here- a cold N/NE feed and favorable storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 GEFS remains rock steady with rolling the North American pattern forward. The most important shift is the ridge axis out west. The EPS is stubborn and just starting to build the +PNA at the end of the run but still keeps the conus trough axis in the west. Both the GEFS and GEPS are quicker and are also very similar with their upper level patterns. I think the EPS is going to cave here before long. I've said this before but the PNA tends to oscillate in shorter timescales than than other teleconnections. I strongly believe the PNA and/or EPO are likely to improve (possibly signficantly) inside of 2 weeks. Obviously we have multiple chances over the next 10 days for snowfall so that's pretty sweet. By the time we're done tracking whatever happens with the larger storm next week I think the best North American pattern of the season will be knocking on the door in the mid range. Good times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Snowstorm56244328564322 called to remind us e8 has a tremendous track record. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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