NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: How does second event look? 120 low is in decent position, but I dont have precip It's a brief start as snow then a transition to ice. Very much a CAD situation. actually manages to end as snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Saturday is definitely going to require good rates given timing and marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Euro is 3-4” verbatim for DC metro using 10:1. Kuchera is similar. 0z was 4-5”. Would take this and run with it. not to deb but look at the trend. its continuing to shift north and its only Tuesday. with nothing to really keep it south there is little to stop north trend to a point of course. I think it's not that great for DC metro as is compared to previous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: How does second event look? 120 low is in decent position, but I dont have precip Mix verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Anyone remember that thread for the epic end of days drought? I think we’ve got a chance to make it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: not to deb but look at the trend. its continuing to shift north and its only Tuesday. with nothing to really keep it south there is little to stop north trend to a point of course. I think it's not that great for DC metro as is compared to previous. It was a massive cutter a few days ago, wasn’t it? Then it was a miss to the south. We don’t have a ton of wiggle room but this storm is a bonus storm IMO. The real show is next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is lining up back to back like the gfs. Use the new thread for both? Yes. Labeled it for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 There is a thread for the storm talk guys https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52030-pd-weekend-2019-storm-threats/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone remember that thread for the epic end of days drought? I think we’ve got a chance to make it! I mean if we can’t get decent snow when we get this kind of precip in February it would be a failure of epic proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: not to deb but look at the trend. its continuing to shift north and its only Tuesday. with nothing to really keep it south there is little to stop north trend to a point of course. I think it's not that great for DC metro as is compared to previous. Considering this event was just "discovered" yesterday, I don't think we can define a trend yet. It obviously bumped north but not enough data to say anything is a trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a brief start as snow then a transition to ice. Very much a CAD situation. actually manages to end as snow too. How do we look snow wise between the two from CHO toward EZF? The bump North on the Euro with the Saturday deal took us from 4-5" to like 1", I've seen this before....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Considering this event was just "discovered" yesterday, I don't think we can define a trend yet. It obviously bumped north but not enough data to say anything is a trend. Ji spooked me with that -NAO cancel HM comment. I always take the bait. easy to spook I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Euro looks pretty cold Tuesday morning just looking at the 850s thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Our own private snow event I want to lock this up right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12z EURO taking a swing at a Day 7/8 storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Tuesday’s storm looks like a good thump of snow. Similar to GFS and FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Incoming at 174hr. Has the look of thump to ice to slop. 180: snowing south of DCA into CHO, frza racing up behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm kinda surprised they have been hesitant. It almost makes me second guess my bullish stance on the rest of the season but I guess I just don't see the same risks. It may be hard to get a clean/big snowstorm over the next 1-2 weeks but man, I think our chances look about as good as you can ever ask in any winter except the holy grail mod nino/blocking. I felt very confident in getting additional snowfall when Feb started and I've only gotten more confident. Weather works like the stock market sometimes. When it's all hyped up it fails but when there's fear and blood in the streets it rocks. This winter so far is a great example of what we thought would happen, didn't. In my mind some still hold onto what they think it takes to get snow (go down w/ the ship mentality), and forget that there are other ways to snow. That's what I was driving at the other week wrt the lack of NAO. IF the MJO finally getting to favorable phases is the big dog this year, sobeit. I frankly dont give a rats @rse...so long as it snows. Is putting all faith in MJO 8/1/2 optimal...maybe not, but next year it can be something totally different (-AO/EPO/+PNA /-SOI) that drives the bus...whatever. Weather has shown us there are NO absolutes, but we still can get windows of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Nice hit at 186. Sleet line by EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Nice hit at 186. Sleet line by EZF. Still showing a significant snow to ice event. Check out the 2m temps and dews leading in. Not a nice pretty storm but a very significant one nonetheless. Euro is unusually steady for a week out. I'm sure that will change over the coming days. Fun to look at though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nice run but congrats PSU. He's debbing the comeback of the century. I know your kidding but in fairness I was debbing late Jan into early February when it became apparent to me the pacific was going wrong again. But I tried to say over and over I wasn’t canceling winter and it still looked ok enough to get some snow but I was canceling my epic ness call for late January into February. All things considered we pretty much maxed out the mediocre pattern the last 3 weeks. A west based epo pattern with no blocking help often ends worse. But we fought our way to some snow. As soon as I saw the pacific forcing headed towards right I jumped back in. But I’m not of these “delayed but not denied” spinners. I was wrong. My winter call busted. But I can adjust on the fly. If the look I expected starts to evolve in mid February instead of January I’m not going to ignore it just because I’m feeling butthurt that things didn’t go the way I expected. 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It finally figured out where that desthband belongs!!! Welcome home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Flip to slop at 192. So close to a MECS. Just need better track and/or cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Def has major ice after the thump. Big time CAD thats not going anywhere....Surprised at how fast we lose the snow look....I mean a huge banana high classic MA snowstorm look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Still showing a significant snow to ice event. Check out the 2m temps and dews leading in. Not a nice pretty storm but a very significant one nonetheless. Euro is unusually steady for a week out. I'm sure that will change over the coming days. Fun to look at though. hey bob....im going to try to be positive a bit. Looking at yesterdays run...where the high was off the coast....this is in a much better place for todays run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 EURO is 4" of snow then 0.5"+ inches of ice forum wide. It would be a glacier if it didn't rain afterward. Still might be too much of a glacier to melt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Still showing a significant snow to ice event. Check out the 2m temps and dews leading in. Not a nice pretty storm but a very significant one nonetheless. Euro is unusually steady for a week out. I'm sure that will change over the coming days. Fun to look at though. Yeah I just see the change from blue to pink and feel let down. I have to learn to look at the other data to see what exactly that means on the ground. Thump to ice/sleet is much better than change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Still showing a significant snow to ice event. Check out the 2m temps and dews leading in. Not a nice pretty storm but a very significant one nonetheless. Euro is unusually steady for a week out. I'm sure that will change over the coming days. Fun to look at though. Just now, poolz1 said: Def has major ice after the thump. Big time CAD thats not going anywhere....Surprised at how fast we lose the snow look....I mean a huge banana high classic MA snowstorm look. Now looking under the hood, what has room to trend in our favor to make this a mostly snow event? (Stronger 50/50? And would we have to pull off a colder solution without a -NAO?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Def has major ice after the thump. Big time CAD thats not going anywhere....Surprised at how fast we lose the snow look....I mean a huge banana high classic MA snowstorm look. High is retreating so no confluence or 50/50 to lock it in. Basically it just gets bullied. I can easily see how it could be more snow or even all snow but at the same token I can see how it could be just ZR to rain. Not a good setup for all snow so I'm expecting a mixed event of some variety unless a semblance of a 50/50 or confluence starts showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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