LP08 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 A nice light to moderate hit on the GFS through 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, osfan24 said: Snowing across the area at 102. Tad more south and it will be good for everyone. Seems to be a bit of ice mixing on the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Good ol USA models! Bring the goods... eta: good for a few inches on the first one. But can wave 2 do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 We're back on the GFS. Looks light, but Idc...it's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 GFS is basically our goldilocks run. Far enough north to get us into the good stripe of precip, but not far enough north to worry about mixing. Even if not a major hit it would maximize the potential of this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Honestly, I'd prefer the gfs to keep skimming us to the south for now. Can't go way north with tight spacing and boundary placement in the wake of the previous storm but it can go north enough to cause problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: A nice light to moderate hit on the GFS through 105 compared to what I thought Saturday would be a few days ago this is better situation. I think we can expect some accumulation from perhaps 2-4 might be possible looking at that progression. fast mover east to west so not much slow it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Heh, would be nice if we can get the next wave to slide under us...but beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Ye ole 1-2 punch. Back to back advisory events > 1 warning event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Nice little event on the GFS. But I'm waiting for the debbies to complain about light snow during the day in mid February not sticking to the Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Back to back warning events or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ye ole 1-2 punch. Back to back advisory events > 1 warning event. lol, how is that snow at 120 with that low position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, how is that snow at 120 with that low position It will adjust southward. We good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 A light 1-3" event on a weekend is perfectly good for skiing, so I'll take it. ETA: Just saw the Sunday-Monday followup 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, how is that snow at 120 with that low position Yeah that was my question...ICON did the same thing, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice little event on the GFS. But I'm waiting for the debbies to complain about light snow during the day in mid February not sticking to the Beltway. yeah, where is that JI guy? snowed in or something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, how is that snow at 120 with that low position departing low keep heights lower behind it? just a wag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looks like we never lose frozen for the second storm lol. Hard to buy with that low position however. Just need a couple more days to get that south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Looks like we never lose frozen for the second storm lol. Hard to buy with that low position however. Just need a couple more days to get that south as well. potentially fun weekend ahead. whodathunk it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: A light 1-3" event on a weekend is perfectly good for skiing, so I'll take it. ETA: Just saw the Sunday-Monday followup I'll be in Deep Creek this weekend to ski...would be great for the ski resorts if the GFS played out verbatim especially on a holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Where the heck did the Sunday event come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Its Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 For folks wondering why the second wave is still snow with a nw track of the primary, it's a good insitu CAD setup because of tight spacing. The trailing wave isn't very strong and doesn't have beefy midlevel circulation so the antecedent airmass survives. My guess is if there's 2 close spaced waves they are more likely to take similar tracks. Especially if the gfs is too weak with the first one. Beef that up a little and the boundary sags more. Interesting times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice little event on the GFS. But I'm waiting for the debbies to complain about light snow during the day in mid February not sticking to the Beltway. It’s gonna suck for all those that live on the beltway! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Hmmm... not too shabby but expected for the model that makes snow out of desert air and a single cumulus cloud 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 i'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Its Tuesday nevermind, think I misunderstood your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 @Bob Chill...Yeah, the 2nd low on Sunday is weaker and as you say we have CAD in place behind the previous system (closely spaced). Also, check the 10m winds, they are easterly to slightly north of east as that low treks by, and then reforms off the coast. They never go southeast or southerly. And they are pretty light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Its Tuesday I'm out. wait I'm back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: No. 12z GFS has a second little wave that actually cuts west but somehow still snows on us Sunday afternoon. Today is still Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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