Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
 Share

Recommended Posts

36 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Euro looks pretty decent for Saturday.  Daytime snow with temps right around freezing, ~0.5 QPF for DC.  Could be a nice event. 

man the FV3 looks good for Saturday.  I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype.  but Saturday could feature some snow. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I agree. I find too often people look at indice and charts without actually eyeballing for themselves what the look actually is. But in this case I do think they reflect the uncertainty that the models have in regards to the tropical forcings. So though the maps may show what we may want to see at this time, we are still in fact talking 10+ days away. Now I haven't been following the MJO like you have and following the maps with tropical convection but from some of what I have seen, haven't we had several instances this winter where the convection was showing up in 8/1 in the long range only to move away from it in the shorter ranges? Not only that but weren't the MJO forecasts also very ambiguous during these periods?

The mjo has been in a fairly consistent pattern. Of course that’s in hindsight. The first wave of winter initiated around phase 1/2 and propagated strongly and slowly (with lots of stalls) through 3-4-5-6-7 then died in 8. The next wave initiated in 3/4 and slowly propagated to 6/7 where it died. This wave is initiating in 7 and heading into 8. According to Don there is historical basis for a stall or recycle from 8 to 7 before the wave advances to 1. So seeing that isn’t too bothersome.

Seems a normal thing. I scanned through some past winter mjo charts and he seems to be right with that loop there a regular occurrence. Must be a tendency as waves shift east of New Zealand they die and a new wave reforms northwest before moving east.  

By this point last time the signs the mjo wave was dead and reforming near the maritime continent was apparent. This time the squabble in guidance is wrt exac convection locations over the central pac and amplitude. The maritime continent is the center of subsidence and high pressure through the next 2+ weeks. No sign of that changing yet. 

The seasonal mjo trend has been slow and amplified. Slow is good here since the forcing is where we want. Keep it tooling around in 8/1/2 until climo runs out in about 5 weeks. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I agree. I find too often people look at indice and charts without actually eyeballing for themselves what the look actually is. But in this case I do think they reflect the uncertainty that the models have in regards to the tropical forcings. So though the maps may show what we may want to see at this time, we are still in fact talking 10+ days away. Now I haven't been following the MJO like you have and following the maps with tropical convection but from some of what I have seen, haven't we had several instances this winter where the convection was showing up in 8/1 in the long range only to move away from it in the shorter ranges? Not only that but weren't the MJO forecasts also very ambiguous during these periods?

I think Don S was saying even as  the MJO was progressing it was fading.  And yes some MJO tools  just forcus on the standing wave.  psu's reference about the look with  subsidence

is spot on,  I love the SOI this AM as mentioned

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

man the FV3 looks good for Saturday.  I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype.  but Saturday could feature some snow. 

Real good for sure. Fresh cold smoke in the daytime. What a perfect Saturday that could potentially be. I’m all for the weeniest model as long as the Euro (and others) got its back. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

man the FV3 looks good for Saturday.  I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype.  but Saturday could feature some snow. 

Definitely how this can work. The initial trough and associated cutter run up and create confluence over top initially to drive the left behind NS energy south. Then start relaxing in time to allow that energy to amplify as it moves east. But it will be all about timing if this is how it plays out. The confluence stays to long and we have a suppressed weaker system. It departs to soon and we probably get rained on as the system runs through our region or even to the west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How about that -23.34  SOI today!
Eoro has a pretty major ice storm again for next week.  Over 1" qpf with temps well below freezing....especially NW of 95.  A slightly colder version of yesterday's 12z run.
Psu nailed the soi forecast
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo has been in a fairly consistent pattern. Of course that’s in hindsight. The first wave of winter initiated around phase 1/2 and propagated strongly and slowly (with lots of stalls) through 3-4-5-6-7 then died in 8. The next wave initiated in 3/4 and slowly propagated to 6/7 where it died. This wave is initiating in 7 and heading into 8. According to Don there is historical basis for a stall or recycle from 8 to 7 before the wave advances to 1. So seeing that isn’t too bothersome.

Seems a normal thing. I scanned through some past winter mjo charts and he seems to be right with that loop there a regular occurrence. Must be a tendency as waves shift east of New Zealand they die and a new wave reforms northwest before moving east.  

By this point last time the signs the mjo wave was dead and reforming near the maritime continent was apparent. This time the squabble in guidance is wrt exac convection locations over the central pac and amplitude. The maritime continent is the center of subsidence and high pressure through the next 2+ weeks. No sign of that changing yet. 

The seasonal mjo trend has been slow and amplified. Slow is good here since the forcing is where we want. Keep it tooling around in 8/1/2 until climo runs out in about 5 weeks. 

I'll take your word for it. Have really scaled back on the longer range, pattern shifts, etc.. over the last couple of weeks and have been focusing more so on the more immediate threats. So you are definitely more in the know then I am at this point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I'll take your word for it. Have really scaled back on the longer range, pattern shifts, etc.. over the last couple of weeks and have been focusing more so on the more immediate threats. So you are definitely more in the know then I am at this point. 

The word is given...

Nothing is a given but I am confident the mjo will not be a problem the next few weeks. If we fail it will be a different way. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...