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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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Going by the 00Z runs and we are looking to have a very interesting and active stretch coming up starting the latter half the weekend which should stretch 5/6 days or so before we see somewhat of a relax. Through that stretch we see roughly 2" worth of precip running up the east coast on the GEFS and and roughly 1 1/4" showing on the EPS (For some reason the EPS quite often underplays precip at range). We are seeing the boundary set up through the general Mid-Atlantic through this stretch with multiple pieces of energy streaming through. Now how everything plays out and whether it is mostly wet or white is probably anyone's guess at this time. With such tight spacing between the different pieces of energy/systems much will be highly dependent on the interactions/timings between these features and/or the setup left in the wake of a departing system.

At this time the sanest approach is to take these systems one at a time and get a handle on that before moving to the next as I am sure the models will be throwing out some varying and interesting solutions through this stretch. The system that will be leading the way will be our weekend system. Now the models were initially showing this as just a cutter as all the NS energy was diving down into the central US and the 50/50 created from today's departing storm was a non-factor as it was moving out too quickly. Pretty much a big Fail for the Mid-Atlantic in regards to any frozen. But the last day of runs we saw the EPS and the GFS ops make a fairly significant shift (The 00Z GEFS has now also has strong hints of this change as well) and these changes actually have made the latter half of the weekend into Monday interesting. What we have seen is instead of more NS energy dumping into the developing trough and reinforcing and deepening it that energy is now being left behind. So what we now have is a much shallower drop of that trough and it is moving into S Canada creating suppression along the East Coast as well as driving colder air towards and into our region. The left behind energy is dropping down southward behind this trough creating a shortwave within the flow. At this point the timing/placement on these two features is such that the left over energy is suppressed with little room to amplify as it runs through the region. But it is definitely something to keep an eye because it wouldn't take much in the way of changes to make that a fairly significant storm. 

Beyond that possible storm above I wouldn't want to even speculate about other possible storms. Needless to say I think we will have some interesting tracking ahead of us.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs 6z shifting south next week. Implies big central VA hit. I like seeing waves south at that range. This isn’t a big blocking situation. These tend to trend north. 

Looks like the models are advertising a relax heading into next weekend. GEFS is in and out with it where as the EPS holds onto it for several days. Probably not even worth thinking hard about it considering the coming active stretch will probably go a long way in determining what we do in fact see.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looks like the models are advertising a relax heading into next weekend. GEFS is in and out with it where as the EPS holds onto it for several days. Probably not even worth thinking hard about it considering the coming active stretch will probably go a long way in determining what we do in fact see.

Given the mjo progression I tend to buy the gefs over the eps day 10-15 right now. 

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82520AD6-F00B-4C2C-B2BB-632F59EBB37C.thumb.png.0057477ccc79a467cdeb834318ba7d2b.png

This actually matches the gefs and the mjo soi analogs better than the eps look. Eps bias “leaving too much in the west” maybe. I don’t know but considering it’s been correcting east in the medium range I’m disregarding it’s reversion to a huge eastern ridge until I see signs it’s real. Eps has been awful past day 10 all winter. 

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16 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Looks like 2-4" areawide before the flip.

that could be something.  I always thought if we are to get a warning level ice event we need snow first...and locked in cold below 25F.  as leesburg said nothing to see at 30-32 unless at night and coming off a really cold air mass. That said snow would be better and more fun.  will take what I can get. 

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37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I guess we will see. Looking at the MJO on the different models and their tendencies over the last few runs I really think they are fighting the progression into 8 and 1. 

Those mjo charts just try to measure the convection locations. Problem is it’s not linear in its progression and so as new areas of convection develop sometimes that chart will jump around. But track the subsidence. By day 10+ all guidance has high pressure and subsidence centered over the maritime continent. Exactly where we want it and expect it in a nino. What convection there is is centered either east of the dateline or in the western Indian Ocean. Also where we want it. I think too much is being made of those charts, as HM said. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Those mjo charts just try to measure the convection locations. Problem is it’s not linear in its progression and so as new areas of convection develop sometimes that chart will jump around. But track the subsidence. By day 10+ all guidance has high pressure and subsidence centered over the maritime continent. Exactly where we want it and expect it in a nino. What convection there is is centered either east of the dateline or in the western Indian Ocean. Also where we want it. I think too much is being made of those charts, as HM said. 

I agree. I find too often people look at indice and charts without actually eyeballing for themselves what the look actually is. But in this case I do think they reflect the uncertainty that the models have in regards to the tropical forcings. So though the maps may show what we may want to see at this time, we are still in fact talking 10+ days away. Now I haven't been following the MJO like you have and following the maps with tropical convection but from some of what I have seen, haven't we had several instances this winter where the convection was showing up in 8/1 in the long range only to move away from it in the shorter ranges? Not only that but weren't the MJO forecasts also very ambiguous during these periods?

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