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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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11 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? 

 

 

Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown.  Unless I have missed it.  I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos?  MJO similarities etc...  

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

From the discussions on here I was under the same impression (don't tell me there's some  "wait but it can't be there THIS way" fine print there too, lol

That is always the case.  I’m convinced we can have -NAO -AO +PNA phase 1 50/50 and still rain.  

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown.  Unless I have missed it.  I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos?  MJO similarities etc...  

Is the SPV really that weak though? Much more consolidated and cold since the split/warming event. Being totally honest... I think the strat gets too much credit for its influence on the troposphere. In the last 13 years since I began looking deeply into NWP it seems way more hit and miss considering the level of attention it gets. And I really don't believe the mjo hitting P8&1 with a respectable amplitude means more of the same.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_1.png

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15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown.  Unless I have missed it.  I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos?  MJO similarities etc...  

I think his student , a grad student maybe,  was doing a study but that comment he made, well I am not sure I buy it. 

So the strat is over whelming the Pac and it's forcing,  both ocean based and above.  Would like more info and the nature and scope of the study.   

MJO phase 8 and 1 long standing composites are the Holy Grail of East Coast storms, unless something has changed all of the sudden.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Is the SPV really that weak though? Much more consolidated and cold since the split/warming event. Being totally honest... I think the strat gets too much credit for its influence on the troposphere. In the last 13 years since I began looking deeply into NWP it seems way more hit and miss considering the level of attention it gets. And I really don't believe the mjo hitting P8&1 with a respectable amplitude means more of the same.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_1.png

Agree completely with the bolded...

At 10mb things are cooling and consolidating to a certain extent but we are still very weak as you progress down to 50mb. I think the strat is comparable to Cohen's theory on snow advance....It wouldnt get this much play if there wasn't something to it.  The complexities and slight differences in development/progression...other drivers, can make them fools gold but also reliable tools.  The beauty of seasonal forecasting is it's still in its infancy.... 

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

I think his student , a grad student maybe,  was doing a study but that comment he made, well I am not sure I buy it. 

So the strat is over whelming the Pac and it's forcing,  both ocean based and above.  Would like more info and the nature and scope of the study.   

MJO phase 8 and 1 long standing composites are the Holy Grail of East Coast storms, unless something has changed all of the sudden.  

Agreed.  Maybe someone has found a set of variables that would create a pattern of trough west/SE ridge even with a P8-1 MJO.  That would be an awesome find.  As we know, nothing is a guarantee in this business....and a P8-1 does not guarantee anything. .... but the correlation to a good winter pattern for the east is very high whether we are nino or not and that means a lot imo.    

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agree completely with the bolded...

At 10mb things are cooling and consolidating to a certain extent but we are still very weak as you progress down to 50mb. I think the strat is comparable to Cohen's theory on snow advance....It wouldnt get this much play if there wasn't something to it.  The complexities and slight differences in development/progression...other drivers, can make them fools gold but also reliable tools.  The beauty of seasonal forecasting is it's still in its infancy.... 

Agree on the strat. I just looked at all the levels on wxbell. Below 10mb it's far from consolidated and cold. Not much of a -ao response on this strat event. I agree there's def something to it but not nearly as clear as Cohen made many believe. Since the SAI became mainstream a few years back its busted pretty much every year. Lol. This year wasn't a strong signal so I guess the lack of a -ao fits the SAI. What about the strat though? Texbook event and no -nao at all. 

I think that the ao/nao run in some sort of decadal cycle for reasons nobody has figured out. We're clearly in a positive cycle of some sort. That's prob going to flip here in the near future and suddenly the SAI is going to actually start working again. The old saying around here of "weather is just going to weather" has been extremely true this year. I expect a lot of creative backfitting with seasonal forecasts once this winter is over. Either that or many long rangers will just admit that they epically busted. 

Regardless of all that technical stuff... I think our area is going to end up with some very respectable snow totals this season. I'm expecting my yard to get close to or over 30" on the year unless everything falls apart. No signs of that yet. 

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We will have to see about the MJO per Don S ( not sure the GFS and GEFA are the best tools to use here for the MJO ) 

However lets keep that SOI diving please.  I like  MINUS 40 please. 

The below post is from Don S courtesy 33andrain 

 

A storm will likely bring snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain to parts of the region tomorrow.

 

The SOI was -19.02 today. That's the lowest figure since January 4, 2019 when the SOI was -20.30.

 

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.205. That is the highest value since September 25, 2018 when the AO was +2.265. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.341.

 

For the second consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO was in Phase 7 today and near Phase 8.

 

Assuming the model initialization is accurate, it would likely reach Phase 8 in the next day. This is faster than what had previously been modeled and could result in a lag before the atmosphere responds.

 

Afterward, the outlook remains somewhat uncertain. The historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7 from Phase 8 prior to any move to Phase 1. Both the GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS are now showing such an outcome.

 

For now, it remains more likely than not that the MJO will either be in Phase 7 or 8 at mid-month.

 

A fairly stormy pattern is now evolving. A complex system will likely bring a period of snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, then rain across the region later tonight and through tomorrow. Accumulations of 1"-3" in Philadelphia and 2"-4" in such cities as Newark and New York are likely. Well north and west of those areas (including Scranton and Binghamton) and eastward across parts of New England, including the snow-starved Boston area (where just 2.3" snow has been recorded to date), the potential exists for 3"-6".

 

This likely won't be the last snowfall threat for February. With some of the guidance suggesting the development of the strongest westerly wind burst of the winter, the SOI could fall even farther in coming days. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. In short, the subtropical jet could become increasingly active during the second half of February.

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This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum

 

Brooklynwx

 

"The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases."

 

1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada.

 

497776501_02111918zgefs500mbanom168-360.gif.64e3824307d09730c6a519f64c3df13f.gif

 

This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame:

 

1870127578_02111918zgefs2mtempanom168-312.gif.210dbdc1da3b5824d3ccab2be2f490f3.gif

 

There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase."

 

2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. 

 

258817622_02111918zgefs500mbanom312-384.gif.2186282501e3657b94a7790a5204e000.gif

 

Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition.

 

Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. "

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum

 

Brooklynwx

 

"The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases."

 

1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada.

 

497776501_02111918zgefs500mbanom168-360.gif.64e3824307d09730c6a519f64c3df13f.gif

 

This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame:

 

1870127578_02111918zgefs2mtempanom168-312.gif.210dbdc1da3b5824d3ccab2be2f490f3.gif

 

There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase."

 

2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. 

 

258817622_02111918zgefs500mbanom312-384.gif.2186282501e3657b94a7790a5204e000.gif

 

Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition.

 

Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. "

Lol that’s exactly the progression I posted earlier today. 

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47 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z EPS wants nothing to do with snow in DC this weekend.  Handful of members give DC snow.  

Prob need too much too fast for this weekend to work out so not a surprise. Things are in a bit of flux making it tricky to know exactly what this weekend will look like. With the deep western trough spacing needs to be really tight and that's how the Fv3 makes it work. I'm actually pretty surprised how much the 12z guidance changed. Very sudden. The big wound up rainer appeared to be locked in on all guidance. Now it's much more complicated and we're only talking 5-6 days out. 

Interested to see what 0z does. If there's big changes again, already low confidence will get even lower. Then there's next week... Lots of questions and few answers. 

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