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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh I’m not looking past anything. There are like 5 waves in the next 2 weeks and each will affect the one behind it. 

I know you weren't. We think alike often (that's some scary S right there). Ops are pretty useful for the weekend period. Helps us figure out what the range of possibilities are. The Fv3 is a pretty classic way we get snow here. Not saying I think it's right. Hope it is of course and not far fetched or unusual for our area. 

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4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty much no support for anything frozen on the GEFS before next Tues.  After that it’s bombs away.  Another weenie 

No surprise because the op was a miss and the gefs always has limited spread in the mid range.  If 0z or any future gfs op shows a hit this weekend then the gefs will go all in. Eps showed minority support. About a third of the solutions got it done in various ways. Eps can be similar in the mid range too but not as bad as the gefs. 

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5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

How about a storm that gathers some steam in the GOM and rides up the east coast? Not NE/E out to see.

Classic miller As are rare and we need the -pna to back off before anything like that will happen. We could get really lucky and pull something like that off but my guess is very unlikely unless a ridge in the west builds. Hopefully that shifts better later this month. Both the gefs and eps build it in the d10-15 range

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Classic miller As are rare and we need the -pna to back off before anything like that will happen. We could get really lucky and pull something like that off but my guess is very unlikely unless a ridge in the west builds. Hopefully that shifts better later this month. Both the gefs and eps build it in the d10-15 range

I know. Just venting.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z Gefs is the straigh up honest to god weeniest run of the long range I’ve ever seen.  The only time I’ve ever seen so much snow on an ensemble is when we were within 7 days of a major storm. Never when all the snow was 7+ days away. 

Think E1 would work. E5 and E12 are acceptable too.

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46 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty much no support for anything frozen on the GEFS before next Tues.  After that it’s bombs away.  Another weenie run.  

 

 

Actually it looks like a few members get us snow looking at the precip type maps on weathermodels.com (e14, e15, e19 to name a few) for this weekend’s storm.  

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lots of good options 

C26E811F-A776-458B-953A-C59D514EE504.thumb.png.1782625d7b04ccf1dd645295f077c35e.png

Holy Jaysus! LOL!  I know those snow maps are not the greatest to use, but 16/21 (including the control) give the DC and I-95 corridor >6", and most of those are big hits.  Weenie, indeed.

On a more serious note, I'd be curious how much of this is after next weekend (which apparently the ensembles don't support?)...I'd take it nearly all?  And how much includes the other potential mid-week next week?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man who the heck keeps stickin' a weenie algorithm in the FV3?? XD I swear it feels like some snow weenie weather tech somewhere is just makin' it do this on purpose, lolol I mean 18z was just over the top!!

And looking like another hit after hour 384.

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13 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? 

 

 

Can't recall if it was something you, or perhaps PSU, posted about his study...something about a weak stratospheric Polar vortex somehow mitigates phase 8 to not being as favorable (and you'd need to be more in phase 1)?  I may not be remembering this totally correctly, and I have no idea of the merit of that study.  Also, what is "ECMF"?  Is that the Euro, or some other related model?

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