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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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38 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I know...and I'm certainly not wrapped up in fine details like that (though perhaps that post sounded as if I were!).  Mostly was just taken aback by that crazy ZR plot Bob showed, gotta admit that was rather incredible even if silly to consider right now!  And yes, there were some serious changes.

I get ya.  I think Bob suggested that there will be some whacko swings in guidance in the next few days as things are being sorted out, and I think thats a reasonable approach in the short term.  I sure hope we dont get that kind of ZR.  That crazy alright.   

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Ah good point.  Sorry.  

One notable thing the EPS did move away from is snow into the SE and deep south. Logical explanation is the depth of the cold has backed off. We're going to have to sweat this one out. I have zero confidence in anything beyond next weekend after seeing what 12z ops did today. Just have to pass time and hope for one of these waves to line up right. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One notable thing the EPS did move away from is snow into the SE and deep south. Logical explanation is the depth of the cold has backed off. We're going to have to sweat this one out. I have zero confidence in anything beyond next weekend after seeing what 12z ops did today. Just have to pass time and hope for one of these waves to line up right. 

I actually liked seeing misses to the South. I recall psu posting and mentioning the spread.  

Wonder if we progress back to that look in a few days, when and if, the boundary moves back South a bit. 

Funny, things were progressing, and I hate to say trending to a degree, colder and faster, yet you stated the EPS moved away from the Deep South snow look. 

That is interesting. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One notable thing the EPS did move away from is snow into the SE and deep south. Logical explanation is the depth of the cold has backed off. We're going to have to sweat this one out. I have zero confidence in anything beyond next weekend after seeing what 12z ops did today. Just have to pass time and hope for one of these waves to line up right. 

Well it’s not like we are unfamiliar with any of that.  I do know that waves lining up right is not lucky for my location.  Onward and upward. 

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Bob, how are the members looking wrt the weekend snow potential. Wanted to see if the trends continued to push h5 south. 

Gotta wait until the meteos are out later. Hard to differentiate from the spread on the storm in progress. Improvement over 0z but that's to be expected in the mid range when an op makes big changes. 

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EPS speeds up the PNA ridge building in the west compared to 0z (which was better than previous 12z etc). Fits well with what PSU has been discussing irt the pac improving faster than guidance thinks. Overall the EPS is another very good run that shows promise through the end and beyond (best pattern is at the end). 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I see lots of hits in the 6-10 day time frame scanning the members.  Like Bob said, not as many misses to the south but very few skunk us in that time frame.

It's a really good run. Just can't trust anything. EPS is playing follow the leader with the op inside of 10 days and the op is coming up with brand new stuff every 12 hours. Throw a dart... draw out of a hat... use a random number generator... and it will be as accurate as anything else. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a really good run. Just can't trust anything. EPS is playing follow the leader with the op inside of 10 days and the op is coming up with brand new stuff every 12 hours. Throw a dart... draw out of a hat... use a random number generator... and it will be as accurate as anything else. 

Waiting for that it’s happening gif...might be too soon.  Then I will know this is real.  

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's a really good run. Just can't trust anything. EPS is playing follow the leader with the op inside of 10 days and the op is coming up with brand new stuff every 12 hours. Throw a dart... draw out of a hat... use a random number generator... and it will be as accurate as anything else. 

Pretty big change like you said with the progression past 120 hours.  I liked the EPS as it shows a lot of CAD set ups way out in time with the monster 50/50 there.  We may not be looking at a lot of clean snowstorms for the next 10-15 days but active and cold lurking is fun nevertheless.

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Pretty big change like you said with the progression past 120 hours.  I liked the EPS as it shows a lot of CAD set ups way out in time with the monster 50/50 there.  We may not be looking at a lot of clean snowstorms for the next 10-15 days but active and cold lurking is fun nevertheless.

I like this panel. It's pretty good before this but nice h5 mean here. PNA building, trough near HI and BN heights in SoCal opening the door for the southern stream, confluence overhead, and a pretty good atlantic. IF this is right, we may start to see some runs with W-E oriented storms getting pushed off the coast instead of wagons north like we're seeing now. 

0DI3JU9.jpg

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29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One notable thing the EPS did move away from is snow into the SE and deep south. Logical explanation is the depth of the cold has backed off. We're going to have to sweat this one out. I have zero confidence in anything beyond next weekend after seeing what 12z ops did today. Just have to pass time and hope for one of these waves to line up right. 

The changes next weekend were better for creating a threat there but worse for next week. A convoluted split weaker system next weekend could pop a low under us and snow but it will not set up as much of a suppressive flow behind it for the wave next week. So we paid Peter by robbing Paul on that one. It is possible with just the right balance to pull off back to back hits. It’s also possible with the wrong balance to end up failing totally. A bombing cutter next weekend increased chances after it.  I’m not complaining or debbing, maybe we end up getting some snow from both, and if they fail it’s not the last chance imo. Just saying the weaker south trend next weekend degraded the threat next week some. 

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS speeds up the PNA ridge building in the west compared to 0z (which was better than previous 12z etc). Fits well with what PSU has been discussing irt the pac improving faster than guidance thinks. Overall the EPS is another very good run that shows promise through the end and beyond (best pattern is at the end). 

I’m convinced “the look” is finally coming. Pac is finally getting its act together wrt the forcing we “expected” all winter. Better late than never I guess. I also expect we jump to it faster than guidance thinks. We are seeing that trend now.

The next 2 weeks are the transition.  During that time I expect numerous waves along the boundary that will be shifting east in the means but not in a continuous progression, so rain is a threat during any flexing of the se ridge or over amplified systems but overall I will be surprised if we make it through the next 14 days without getting clipped by one of these waves. 

After that I think things slow down but we enter the big game preserves and go HECS hunting to finish the season. Of course it doesn’t have to be a hecs, not every coastal goes just right, but the idea the tail end of Feb into March will be eastern trough with blocking and hope for amplification up the coast. 

That’s how this pattern progression plays out in my mind. But even if I’m right that doesn’t guarantee us snow. We could get unlucky with waves missing in all directions then maybe after one storm gets suppressed and another bombs late and we somehow get skunked...but I really don’t find that the most likely end. If anything I think it’s more likely we get more than one warning event than none. We will see. Landing gear is down. We’re coming in for final approach. Gonna be a bumpy landing to this one!

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm hopeful we can get a better pattern before Feb 26. This is starting to feel a little like the 10-day thing again where things keep getting pushed back.

Here, this should inspire your weenie and satisfy snow map fetish. Entire EPS suite through only day 10. Northern tier gets a chunk from the current storm but everything along 95 between the cities is after today/tomorrow. 

6UzASnW.jpg

FLonlT2.jpg

 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
23 minutes ago, LP08 said:
I see lots of hits in the 6-10 day time frame scanning the members.  Like Bob said, not as many misses to the south but very few skunk us in that time frame.

We need misses to south

We want something out of this too, I would like to feel like I'm part of the forum.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The changes next weekend were better for creating a threat there but worse for next week. A convoluted split weaker system next weekend could pop a low under us and snow but it will not set up as much of a suppressive flow behind it for the wave next week. So we paid Peter by robbing Paul on that one. It is possible with just the right balance to pull off back to back hits. It’s also possible with the wrong balance to end up failing totally. A bombing cutter next weekend increased chances after it.  I’m not complaining or debbing, maybe we end up getting some snow from both, and if they fail it’s not the last chance imo. Just saying the weaker south trend next weekend degraded the threat next week some. 

I’m convinced “the look” is finally coming. Pac is finally getting its act together wrt the forcing we “expected” all winter. Better late than never I guess. I also expect we jump to it faster than guidance thinks. We are seeing that trend now.

The next 2 weeks are the transition.  During that time I expect numerous waves along the boundary that will be shifting east in the means but not in a continuous progression, so rain is a threat during any flexing of the se ridge or over amplified systems but overall I will be surprised if we make it through the next 14 days without getting clipped by one of these waves. 

After that I think things slow down but we enter the big game preserves and go HECS hunting to finish the season. Of course it doesn’t have to be a hecs, not every coastal goes just right, but the idea the tail end of Feb into March will be eastern trough with blocking and hope for amplification up the coast. 

That’s how this pattern progression plays out in my mind. But even if I’m right that doesn’t guarantee us snow. We could get unlucky with waves missing in all directions then maybe after one storm gets suppressed and another bombs late and we somehow get skunked...but I really don’t find that the most likely end. If anything I think it’s more likely we get more than one warning event than none. We will see. Landing gear is down. We’re coming in for final approach. Gonna be a bumpy landing to this one!

Good discussion and I don't really think you're "debbing" by expressing worthwhile caution.  But overall, gotta like the looks coming up!

As for final approach and bumpy landings, let's hope it's nothing like "Airplane (is that Ji in the airport tower removing the plug???):

Image result for airplane just kidding

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