Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: agree. although now I am wondering how potentially Satnight/Sunday will affect Tuesday being that it all connected. probably overthinking it Brother, I don't think it's a matter of overthinking lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Euro is going to be too warm in the mids for the d8+ potential. It's more of an ice setup than good snow. However, considering the significant changes we just saw for d5'ish, confidence beyond that is even lower than it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Euro looks very warm in the 850s late tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Would be a pretty big ice event verbatim though. True CAD with northerly winds as precip has overspread. I'll take the under on big ice. Just relaying what the panels show. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro is going to be too warm in the mids for the d8+ potential. It's more of an ice setup than good snow. However, considering the significant changes we just saw for d5'ish, confidence beyond that is even lower than it's been. Yep. OP guidance is basically unanimous that there will be a storm in that time period. That’s good enough for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 lol- it's HEAVY zr. Haven't seen a panel like this for a long time 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 lol- it's HEAVY zr. Haven't seen a panel like this for a long timeExtremely disappointing run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- it's HEAVY zr. Haven't seen a panel like this for a long time Extremely disappointing run I don't think the run means anything other than the period still has a storm coming up from the south. Look what just happened with D5. We don't know a damn thing right now about what may or may not happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- it's HEAVY zr. Haven't seen a panel like this for a long time Extremely disappointing run Go take more pictures 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- it's HEAVY zr. Haven't seen a panel like this for a long time Extremely disappointing run Talk about bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- it's HEAVY zr. Haven't seen a panel like this for a long time Extremely disappointing run Ice-skating on sidewalks is always a good time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Going to be cool to have 2 snow events in the middle of our week of torch/abandon all hope/winter cancel/omgnevergonnasnowagain 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is going to be too warm in the mids for the d8+ potential. It's more of an ice setup than good snow. However, considering the significant changes we just saw for d5'ish, confidence beyond that is even lower than it's been. I'm looking at the not very detailed maps on TT and see what you're saying on the 850s. The 00Z also has us losing the mids with what looks like a primary that tracks west of us and never totally dissipates in favor of the coastal. Similar thing to what the new 12Z shows, I guess...again, going off the limited detail on TT...but 12Z shows more coastal perhaps, and the high appears more entrenched too. Now, I don't know if 00Z also had us in more of a mix or ZR vs. snow, but at any rate obviously dissecting such details this far out is not worth it. Just trying to see differences, etc. Like you mentioned (in a slightly later post below), a ton of ice is probably not the most likely scenario here, but verbatim would be interesting. And it shows just how strong that high is even if the mid levels get bullied out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The GEFS was basically split down the middle between snow and mixed/rain for D8. Both options are clearly on the table. I expect the EPS to be equally split. Now that next weekend has completely changed its personality it gets extremely muddy beyond that. It's not a big storm pattern or an easy long track pattern. Expecting ops to lock in on anything specific and hold for days is completely unrealistic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Going to be cool to have 2 snow events in the middle of our week of torch/abandon all hope/winter cancel/omgnevergonnasnowagain When I first read this quickly, I thought for some reason it said "omgnosnowmageddon"...or something like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- it's HEAVY zr. Haven't seen a panel like this for a long time Extremely disappointing run What? It has multiple winter storm chances in the next 10 days? How can you ask for more than that with such an active pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: What? It has multiple winter storm chances in the next 10 days? How can you ask for more than that with such an active pattern? One thing I can predict with 100% accuracy every single winter is Ji will NEVER break character... ever.. lalalockitup 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I'm looking at the not very detailed maps on TT and see what you're saying on the 850s. The 00Z also has us losing the mids with what looks like a primary that tracks west of us and never totally dissipates in favor of the coastal. Similar thing to what the new 12Z shows, I guess...again, going off the limited detail on TT...but 12Z shows more coastal perhaps, and the high appears more entrenched too. Now, I don't know if 00Z also had us in more of a mix or ZR vs. snow, but at any rate obviously dissecting such details this far out is not worth it. Just trying to see differences, etc. Like you mentioned (in a slightly later post below), a ton of ice is probably not the most likely scenario here, but verbatim would be interesting. And it shows just how strong that high is even if the mid levels get bullied out. As the new regime is just starting to take shape, i'd personally not get to wrapped up in finer details yet. Euro just gave a major change to med range guidance. I'd track the storm for now, and by Wed/Thurs start figuring out R/S line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: One thing I can predict with 100% accuracy every single winter is Ji will NEVER break character... ever.. lalalockitup The MJ(i)O is always spot-on in it's forecast, that's for sure! It never fails. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I actually like DT more than most. Us eagles fans have to stick together. But right now he is full tilt off the rails and someone needs to give him a hard time to shock him back to reality. Agreed about the eagles thing. But when you start bashing hobbyists and implying he is the be all end all of LR forecasting and everyone else including "Twitter freaks" are clueless and "full of shit" I'm pretty sure many folks take offense to that. Yes he knows atmospheric science but tone it down and eat some humble pie for a change. We r all right at times and we are all wrong at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: As the new regime is just starting to take shape, i'd personally not get to wrapped up in finer details yet. Euro just gave a major change to med range guidance. I'd track the storm for now, and by Wed/Thurs start figuring out R/S line. I know...and I'm certainly not wrapped up in fine details like that (though perhaps that post sounded as if I were!). Mostly was just taken aback by that crazy ZR plot Bob showed, gotta admit that was rather incredible even if silly to consider right now! And yes, there were some serious changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Up next is to see whether the mean snowfall trends on the EPS continue to improve or take a step back. As for the ice on the Euro without question could trend colder and be all snow. But I prefer no ice storm. Perception and damage wise a significant ice storm leaves a nasty memory about the winter being possibly worse than it was. However I can see why because they are dangerous to both person and property. I dont want to spend 1500 right now on my scott pine to take her down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: Up next is to see whether the mean snowfall trends on the EPS continue to improve or take a step back. As for the ice on the Euro without question could trend colder and be all snow. But I prefer no ice storm. Perception and damage wise a significant ice storm leaves a nasty memory about the winter being possibly worse than it was. However I can see why because they are dangerous to both person and property. I dont want to spend 1500 right now on my scott pine to take her down. I doubt we see that kind of ice in the end that the Euro depicts, but that was some impressive "digital ice" to be sure! My main take-away is that there is a storm with a fair bit of moisture, and plenty of at least low-level cold air nearby. I was in a bad ice storm in Atlanta years ago...around Jan. 2000 as I recall. And yeah, pine trees and ice are a bad combo. The oaks and maples, etc. were generally fine but all the pines and magnolia trees got shredded in that event. Large magnolia leaves plus 1/4-1/2" ice equals disaster for that tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 True. We fret ice storms but we don’t really get that many Ice Storm Warning events. I guess we are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 If that Euro map is rain at 30-32 then ....well...look out your window...nothing to see folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I don't understand some of these replies basically locking in an ice storm 8 days away lol. Would you lock in a snowstorm if it showed that? My take away from the models today is that chances are increasing for at least a light wintry event this weekend and then a bigger storm next week with details completely uncertain. That's the reality. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If that Euro map is rain at 30-32 then ....well...look out your window...nothing to see folks Yea if u want a good (or bad because of the damage) ice storm you need temps in the mid to upper 20s with light to moderate rain over a long period. Moderate rain at 31 degrees especially during the day is just cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If that Euro map is rain at 30-32 then ....well...look out your window...nothing to see folks Mid to upper 20's everywhere as the heavy precip moves in and below freezing for a while before that too. Already a few tenths prior to the panel I posted. Like I said before I'll always take the under on legit ice. Verbatim the Euro is a damaging ice storm though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If that Euro map is rain at 30-32 then ....well...look out your window...nothing to see folks I wouldn't agree with this. I think a lot of us today have seen a little freezing rain then a lot of 33 degree rain. Speaking of ice storms though, I experienced 2 really bad ones living in northern Louisiana in December 1999, then again in December 2000. We lived in the woods about 30 miles south of the Arkansas border and it was solid pine trees. I just remember sitting out on our porch watching the sky light up green from transformers blowing and hearing the pop and crash of pine trees snapping all around throughout the night. The trees would snap off halfway and the bottom part of the trunk that was still attached would swing wildly back and forth. The damage to the trees was like a slow motion hurricane. We lost power for 8 days in 1999 and 9 days in 2000. The town that we lived near (Ruston) was 100% without power. Those were some of the craziest weather memories I have. I was only 9-10 years old and didn't record any video...I so wish I would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 42 minutes ago, frd said: Up next is to see whether the mean snowfall trends on the EPS continue to improve or take a step back. As for the ice on the Euro without question could trend colder and be all snow. But I prefer no ice storm. Perception and damage wise a significant ice storm leaves a nasty memory about the winter being possibly worse than it was. However I can see why because they are dangerous to both person and property. I dont want to spend 1500 right now on my scott pine to take her down. Looks like EPS took the proverbial step back for next week’s storm. At least in terms of mean snowfall. Shaved about 1.5” off the mean. Edit: As Bob pointed out, much of that reduction is from today’s storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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