BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: PD 2.5 Hey , before I forget, be safe tomorrow. would take something amazing to call it PDIII I suppose. be happy with anything really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: He will focus on the fact that he used the word MAYBE in his statement yep. I unfollowed him some time ago, and while i agree that he is a smart guy....he's also too much of a smart @ss. This sport is too humbling for anyone to puff their chest, and he can flip/flop/spin w/ the best of em. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: During our January storm, DT said on Twitter that it was ridiculous that anyone was calling for 8-12” in the DC area. He might have taken down that post, but I was really happy that we proved him wrong. In case you (or anybody) hasn't noticed... lol DT lets emotions run wild when he makes definitive calls at long range. Emotional calls have a high bust rate. I melted in early Jan saying the month was cooked and soon after I melted it snowed a foot. If nothing else, long range weather has a good sense of humor... and irony 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, frd said: This took some digging Ah, the memories ................... Im almost 50 and I've never seen that game before....#sheltered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both strong looks for day 9 ane enough room to come north a bit and still keep many happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Im almost 50 and I've never seen that game before....#sheltered There must be millions of games under the Coleco platform and black market too. We have come far today. Soon we can live our dreams of blizzards in a animated real life world similiar to the Matrix . ( no need to track anymore ) I can see it now. Mr Anderson , " Neil your PD 5 version 3.0 is ready for your vitural experience in capsule 23. We have increased the wind speeds to 100 mph for your viewing pleasure. " LOL 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In case you (or anybody) hasn't noticed... lol DT lets emotions run wild when he makes definitive calls at long range. Emotional calls have a high bust rate. I melted in early Jan saying the month was cooked and soon after I melted it snowed a foot. If nothing else, long range weather has a good sense of humor... and irony But he was actually saying that while we were snowing after the NWS called for 8-12. The weird thing was that he had originally said 6-10 for Northern VA and then he dropped his totals later. I just thought it was amusing. I wonder how long he will be able to ignore the Euro about next week. After he called off winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The problem with the national weather gurus is snow can hit almost anywhere and they claim victory when we only care about our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I am loving the mid range look on the mid day GFS. Real legit chances inside of 10 days. I will say the models did well with the pattern over the past 2 weeks. Timed the torch and yesterdays event very well. Yes they jumped around on specific LP placement. But the overall pattern verified very well. I too am feeling very confident about the late Feb early March period. And most of us only need a decent event to meet or exceed climo this year. As far as DT goes. Yes he is an emotional wreck. But the guy knows winter patterns and storms.I will not fault a man for being able to make a living off of doing what he loves. And doing it on his own terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 12z Icon and 12z gfs say why wait until next week when you can be tracking something for this weekend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: 12z Icon and 12z gfs say why wait until next week when you can be tracking something for this weekend... Heck yea. I'd take my chances with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z Icon and 12z gfs say why wait until next week when you can be tracking something for this weekend... Yes another great 500MB pass with horrible temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 It takes a great track but just ends with more cold rain. Pretty big changes in the mid-range on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am loving the mid range look on the mid day GFS. Real legit chances inside of 10 days. I will say the models did well with the pattern over the past 2 weeks. Timed the torch and yesterdays event very well. Yes they jumped around on specific LP placement. But the overall pattern verified very well. I too am feeling very confident about the late Feb early March period. And most of us only need a decent event to meet or exceed climo this year. I will add this about the GFS and this is a bit out there but it really holds true at times. The GFS is good at times in the very long range if you simply desire a window of when there might be a sudden temp reversal or a large storm. I know over the past 6 years it has provided me about 15 days or more notice to storms within just sa few days. I used this info to plan trips and even to surf at the beach based on the looks of a frontal passage and off shore winds. In this role the long range GFS is useless at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z Icon and 12z gfs say why wait until next week when you can be tracking something for this weekend... And, we are in MJO phase 1 at that time, actually well before. Cool to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: It takes a great track but just ends with more cold rain. At this point you have to be thinking that it isn't close to a final outcome...especially when comparing every run up until now. This solution just came out of nowhere on the op gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 oh snap! I dont actually know anything about weather, just that i love snow. and now im excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, PDIII said: Yes another great 500MB pass with horrible temps I'd take my chances with that in mid Feb. Could be a rain to snow type deal. Bowling balls do strange things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: At this point you have to be thinking that it isn't close to a final outcome...especially when comparing every run up until now. This solution just came out of nowhere on the op gfs. Something on it's tail near Northern Oklahoma. Might get interesting here in later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am loving the mid range look on the mid day GFS. Real legit chances inside of 10 days. I will say the models did well with the pattern over the past 2 weeks. Timed the torch and yesterdays event very well. Yes they jumped around on specific LP placement. But the overall pattern verified very well. I too am feeling very confident about the late Feb early March period. And most of us only need a decent event to meet or exceed climo this year. As far as DT goes. Yes he is an emotional wreck. But the guy knows winter patterns and storms.I will not fault a man for being able to make a living off of doing what he loves. And doing it on his own terms. I actually like DT more than most. Us eagles fans have to stick together. But right now he is full tilt off the rails and someone needs to give him a hard time to shock him back to reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Those are some big changes at 500 in the medium range on the GFS. I'd take my chances with that vort pass in February as Chris78 mentioned above. Still seems to be an evolving situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Vort pass looks very good. Track and strength of surface low looks very good. This one is worth watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I actually like DT more than most. Us eagles fans have to stick together. But right now he is full tilt off the rails and someone needs to give him a hard time to shock him back to reality. I do too, but sometimes he is just so convinced that he is right and others are completely wrong- that really becomes annoying. I followed him all the time before I found this forum. I still like to learn from his videos and I typically read his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 And another big storm depicted 2/19 on GFS. GFS has been consistently hitting this period, albeit the precise look changes run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I actually like DT more than most. Us eagles fans have to stick together. But right now he is full tilt off the rails and someone needs to give him a hard time to shock him back to reality. As a met, he is not too bad in long-range pattern recognition. As a person, he is a complete ass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, frd said: Something on it's tail near Northern Oklahoma. Might get interesting here in later frames. You arent kidding. Next Tuesday looks great for the MA. Sure hope that w/ the new base state, that we can believe it. Lets hope for some continuity in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ensembles have been hinting at a cluster of southern tracks for Saturday so no surprise to me a op shows a wintery solution. And we are still 5 days out FV3 has light snow Saturday. That model has no credibility with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: And another big storm depicted 2/19 on GFS. GFS has been consistently hitting this period, albeit the precise look changes run to run. Going to be a lot of tracking starting this week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: And another big storm depicted 2/19 on GFS. GFS has been consistently hitting this period, albeit the precise look changes run to run. My ideal IMBY look would be 1. Weekend 2. Early-mid next week 3. Takes a break while I am Out of town - LOL 4. March 3rd HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: You arent kidding. Next Tuesday looks great for the MA And we are not even onto the better window. But at this time it appears the NAO is neutral or starting to decline and the AO is dropping . So the terrible indices we had are improving . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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