North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: EURO is hinting at something That shafts the Baltimore area again, so it's likely dead on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I stayed all snow for PD2. And still recorded 'only' 21 inches in Front Royal at the time. Now see...arguing about 21 vs 30 inches is a change we oughta all be welcoming right now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He is going to bust so bad. He said it’s a bad pattern the next 2 weeks not just for the mid Atlantic but northeast and New England too. Forget the fact the northeast is getting a snow/ice storm NOW. I don’t know where the couple of threats day 7-9 and 11-12 are going to hit. Some runs go south. They could shift north. But there is a limit to how far north. I would say this storm now is kind of the northern bound to where those go if the trough amplified too far west again. I find it extremely unlikely that no one in the east all the way to New England gets no snow the next 2 weeks...even ignoring the snow falling now. Lol He cant seem to be objective at times- gets too emotional when the pattern has potential but he thinks his yard is gonna get skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Dark sky showing 3-6” of snow Sunday night into Monday (upcoming weekend) I never pay attention to the amounts that far out 17th-22nd looks to be an interesting period with the potential for back to back winter storms in the Mid Atlantic / northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That shafts the Baltimore area again, so it's likely dead on. I'm going to go with a sharper cutoff from RVA down to Hampton Roads. You know... the typical set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: I'm going to go with a sharper cutoff from RVA down to Hampton Roads. You know... the typical set up it would be fun if we could have some wind. don't need a blizzard but everything so far has been straight down Hollywood Christmas movie snow. I would like some wind with my snow. or just snow period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 49 minutes ago, stormtracker said: psu and bob are almost making me get caught up in this cycle again. I hate you both for it. Play it safe. Psu and myself strongly believe we are heading towards good potential. You know the game though. Potential is def no guarantee. Hold off until something real is happening in the med range. If a real threat is holding on guidance later this week then it's time to get excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Play it safe. Psu and myself strongly believe we are heading towards good potential. You know the game though. Potential is def no guarantee. Hold off until something real is happening in the med range. If a real threat is holding on guidance later this week then it's time to get excited. something you said in an earlier post struck me when I saw the 6z op...you said we don't want that crap of splitting it in two pieces but one slug of energy. is the piecemeal option a kiss of death for this potential? does it f-up the mid levels or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 ABC 8 calling for something, too. https://www.wric.com/weather/will-snow-make-a-comeback-in-central-virginia-next-week-/1772728834 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Watching the new DT video...interesting. Pretty much bashes non meteorologists saying those not in the field that are calling for stormy and cold pattern is East dont know science and will fail miserably. Wow he really put his neck out there with that one. Eta: talks about the EPS extended and says how the pattern gets progressively worse. Points out a muted SE Ridge while fast forwarding over HL that look really good. Hammering home Seattle snows and no end in sight with Seattle snows and midwest blizzards. "Locked in pattern"...."east coast rain "...."Twitter freaks"...."no no no". One of the camps is going to be severely incorrect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: something you said in an earlier post struck me when I saw the 6z op...you said we don't want that crap of splitting it in two pieces but one slug of energy. is the piecemeal option a kiss of death for this potential? does it f-up the mid levels or something? Both can work and both can fail. I prefer faster either way. We're not at that level of detail yet unfortunately. If it looks like confluence is pressing more than we think right now then we want one piece that can bully things. If we're riding the line then 2 might be better. Very hard to say which one is better because we don't clearly know how heights are going to set up in the wake of the next storm that tracks west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: Ops just being ops I guess. Big lag LOL San Antonio, TX area. Paging Jebman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: ABC 8 calling for something, too. https://www.wric.com/weather/will-snow-make-a-comeback-in-central-virginia-next-week-/1772728834 interesting. you can see what the 2 wave scenario does on the GFS...rain then hoping the cold rushes in for the second piece. delayed is denied in my mind although might be better for your location. fun times ahead but somehow things always get messed as we close in so just conversational right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: interesting. you can see what the 2 wave scenario does on the GFS...rain then hoping the cold rushes in for the second piece. delayed is denied in my mind although might be better for your location. fun times ahead but somehow things always get messed as we close in so just conversational right now. I'm not getting my hopes up. But I feel as if it's either going to be rain or big totals. I'm hoping we can all go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: I'm not getting my hopes up. But I feel as if it's either going to be rain or big totals. I'm hoping we can all go out with a bang. I cant imagine we are all just done on Feb 11th. Too much runway for winter. Now if March 11th we are still chasing then stick a fork in it. what part of Richmond are you in? looks like a fairly tight gradient for RA/SN line...which is probably almost always the case down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: I cant imagine we are all just done on Feb 11th. Too much runway for winter. Now if March 11th we are still chasing then stick a fork in it. what part of Richmond are you in? looks like a fairly tight gradient for RA/SN line...which is probably almost always the case down there. Lower. In Chesterfield. It's always that fine line. We got about 13" on 12/9. I would like one more day to sit at home drinking bourbon without having to worry about going out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Hyphnx said: Southern. In Chesterfield. It's always that fine line. We got about 13" on 12/9. I would like one more day to sit at home drinking bourbon without having to worry about going out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: I'm not getting my hopes up. But I feel as if it's either going to be rain or big totals. I'm hoping we can all go out with a bang. Would be nice if everyone got a nice hit. We haven't had anything here in RIC since the big one in December, I'm not counting the slop fest we got in January or the dusting of graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Sometimes Judah posts a GFS map and says, wow a lot of snow coming, but most times to me it is focused more North of us. Today he posted this and it looks like one of the more impressive in terms of both cold temps, and snowfall potential forecasts this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Play it safe. Psu and myself strongly believe we are heading towards good potential. You know the game though. Potential is def no guarantee. Hold off until something real is happening in the med range. If a real threat is holding on guidance later this week then it's time to get excited. Yeah, I'm not even close to vested. I'm at the point where I can't be disappointed. I had a mini meltdown the other day, but I'm over it. What will be, will be. I think we can salvage another good storm before we close out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Judah Cohen gets his GEFS maps on ColecoVision. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Judah Cohen gets his GEFS maps on ColecoVision. If in 1982-83 you had coleco as opposed to all the other kids that had Atari you were considered the cool kid on the block. If only this were 36 years ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm not even close to vested. I'm at the point where I can't be disappointed. I had a mini meltdown the other day, but I'm over it. What will be, will be. I think we can salvage another good storm before we close out. I'm mostly just happy that we seem to be moving towards a regime change that allows some wiggleroom. With the big rubber band going on between the trough in the west and SE ridge we need everything to break perfect. Break that cycle and we can have longer windows and more ways to get something to work. How long does the "good period" last? Hard to say but could be the rest of the month or maybe longer. We generally need longer windows to get a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 DT has what my friend and I like to call Post Traumatic Weather Disorder(PTWD). He allows his emotions regarding bad recent forecasts/storms to blur his view of the future. I think he's very intelligent and can analyze a pattern with the best of them but his personality is very unsettling and impacts the quality of his work. He's also the one guy that will do a big write up about how horrible a pattern is and then 2 days later will post a model showing a big snowfall result lol. He's a mess. Can't follow his craziness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Steve25 said: DT has what my friend and I like to call Post Traumatic Weather Disorder(PTWD). He allows his emotions regarding bad recent forecasts/storms to blur his view of the future. I think he's very intelligent and can analyze a pattern with the best of them but his personality is very unsettling and impacts the quality of his work. He's also the one guy that will do a big write up about how horrible a pattern is and then 2 days later will post a model showing a big snowfall result lol. He's a mess. Can't follow his craziness. He will focus on the fact that he used the word MAYBE in his statement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Both strong looks for day 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: He is going to bust so bad. He said it’s a bad pattern the next 2 weeks not just for the mid Atlantic but northeast and New England too. Forget the fact the northeast is getting a snow/ice storm NOW. I don’t know where the couple of threats day 7-9 and 11-12 are going to hit. Some runs go south. They could shift north. But there is a limit to how far north. I would say this storm now is kind of the northern bound to where those go if the trough amplified too far west again. I find it extremely unlikely that no one in the east all the way to New England gets no snow the next 2 weeks...even ignoring the snow falling now. Lol During our January storm, DT said on Twitter that it was ridiculous that anyone was calling for 8-12” in the DC area. He might have taken down that post, but I was really happy that we proved him wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Judah Cohen gets his GEFS maps on ColecoVision. This took some digging Ah, the memories ................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both strong looks for day 9 PD 2.5 Hey , before I forget, be safe tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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