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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with psu on the next couple weeks to maybe a full month. Shorter wavelengths and tighter spacing in Feb changes the storm landscape. A shutout pattern is always a deathblow but even flawed in Feb can work  and early March too. Imho- we're more likely to have a good to great pattern than a continuation of what we have now. The PNA oscillates far more often than locking in for a month+. I strongly believe the PNA will shift out of hostile mode this month. 

I'll just throw this out there and if I bust then bump troll the hell out of me... by next weekend we will be tracking a potential large storm and also will be staring down the barrel of a good to maybe even great North American upper level pattern for the foreseeable future. I predict many uncancel posts and lots of optimism for getting a flush hit from a nice coastal. 

wow!  I dont often see you go out in a limb like that Bob.  Anyway here’s hoping that limb is a strong one.  For the sake if the emotions in this subforum i really do hope you are onto something!

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1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

When the ridge is NE of Greenland like this in the long range, it never verifies as -NAO. European ridge now.

f384-6.gif

I am still waiting on your mega -NAO call a while ago.  No one can predict the NAO at long leads with confidence. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z GEFS says we may finally get some semblance of the h5 pattern of our dreams in time for March.

It does...but before that I LOVE seeing those 3-4 southeast HECS members!  Of course we don’t want to see the majority go that way or else it’s the maestro 1980 or 1973 nightmare, but given the type pattern seeing a few 20” NC snowstorms just makes me feel there is both the stj fetch we need and a good chance the boundary stays south of us this time. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Forgetting the mjo plots just looking at the pressure and chi charts the forcing looks to enter favorable locations east of the dateline in just a few days. With a 5-7 day lag by day 10 we should be feeling it. Guidance has been trending more trough unto the east through day 8-9 and then reloads the se ridge. 

2 thoughts. That could just be an error and they are doing what they did all year and not seeing the mjo right. 

Also there is a lot of snow within the ensembles (and now the ops too) despite the ridge. I have a thought on that. Tell me if you think this makes sense. 

The se ridge may not be totally pac driven. There might be some other cause. I say that because even runs that pull the western trough back and split pressing a trough into the east still have some se ridge. It’s muted with a trough over the top, and those are the really snowy runs actually as that scenario sets up the kind of boundary war we can win with a muted se ridge resisting and throwing waa back over pressing cold over the top. That’s a PD2 type setup. Of course that was an extreme example but that idea works in general. When the se ridge is connected to the pacific and is being pumped by the trough out west is when we really are in trouble.  A trough split with some diving down west and some diving in on top the se ridge is better. 

So either it is pac driven and then it’s wrong. The pac forcing should encourage the cold to try to dive into the eastern conus. Or it’s not pac driven in which that’s ok too as cold pressing on top a muted ridge is the kind of exception to the rule that works here.  That’s actually how 2003, 2014, and 2015 worked. 

You think I’m off my rocker here or might there be something to that idea?  Been kicking it around in my head since yesterday when the weird snowy SE ridge solutions started showing up. 

I tend to agree. I think the PAC is a partial reason for the SE ridging but I think there are times something else is contributing to it as well because it hasn't behaved quite the way I would expect it to. I just have no idea what. I understand your thoughts on how everything can still work with SE ridging because I have shared those thoughts over the last couple of weeks as well and have actually argued it can be a winner and potentially a big one. But the tendencies I have seen are that when it is splitting the energy diving down from the NW it is dropping to much into the SW which is not helping the cause with the SE ridging at all as it is helping to pump up heights. To further complicate the issue these drops into the west are occurring farther west then I envisioned so we are seeing a bump up of heights farther west then what we need to see.  So basically a double whammy where the heights are too strong and they are occurring underneath us instead of more up the coast line. I think what irks me the most is that in the long ranges the models have shown a very workable pattern with muted SE ridging farther to the east only to strengthen and shift that feature westward. Then it becomes congrats Cleveland or even Chicago as systems cut. And I think that is what we are seeing once again on the models.

I really am at the point where I think we need to see a legit PAC flip otherwise we are talking mediocrity for the next few weeks. Now Bob brought up a good point with the shorter wavelengths as we start transitioning into spring. One of the reasons I have believed we do see an eventual flip. But at that point will it be too late? Get a KU and all will be forgiven but if all that flip means is a cold and wet camping season then I will gladly forgo.

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54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like what the ops and ens are doing in the d8-10 range. We need to root for the later week rain storm to blow up as much as possible. 12z euro is sweet AF. I think this next window might be the real deal. Just need luck and choas to break right. Upper levels look great for now. Hope it holds...

Eta: before people bitch and moan about the verbatim solution on the 12z euro, I'm looking at the big picture. I see good potential for drawn out overrunning or PD2 redux if the stars align. Prob just the beginning of a better stretch down the line.

Since I can’t see the Euro, are you saying there is hope for something PD weekend or that you see a possibility of something developing the week after PD? 

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40 minutes ago, frd said:

I am still waiting on your mega -NAO call a while ago.  No one can predict the NAO at long leads with confidence. 

 

 

I was looking for an image that is pretty cool, has +anomalies at 500mb consistently for several months until the Stratosphere warming then it's all negative anomalies. We had until Feb 17, and I thought maybe on the backend because of expectation duality lol. My Winter NAO method predicted +0.70 for DJFM. 

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It does...but before that I LOVE seeing those 3-4 southeast HECS members!  Of course we don’t want to see the majority go that way or else it’s the maestro 1980 or 1973 nightmare, but given the type pattern seeing a few 20” NC snowstorms just makes me feel there is both the stj fetch we need and a good chance the boundary stays south of us this time. 

Yeah I am pretty optimistic about prospects for something the week of the 18th. Would be great if we could salvage something from next weekend's cutter, but I am not biting on the GFS with is back-ender. It would have to morph into something different and I doubt that happens.

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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I tend to agree. I think the PAC is a partial reason for the SE ridging but I think there are times something else is contributing to it as well because it hasn't behaved quite the way I would expect it to. I just have no idea what. I understand your thoughts on how everything can still work with SE ridging because I have shared those thoughts over the last couple of weeks as well and have actually argued it can be a winner and potentially a big one. But the tendencies I have seen are that when it is splitting the energy diving down from the NW it is dropping to much into the SW which is not helping the cause with the SE ridging at all as it is helping to pump up heights. To further complicate the issue these drops into the west are occurring farther west then I envisioned so we are seeing a bump up of heights farther west then what we need to see.  So basically a double whammy where the heights are too strong and they are occurring underneath us instead of more up the coast line. I think what irks me the most is that in the long ranges the models have shown a very workable pattern with muted SE ridging farther to the east only to strengthen and shift that feature westward. Then it becomes congrats Cleveland or even Chicago as systems cut. And I think that is what we are seeing once again on the models.

I really am at the point where I think we need to see a legit PAC flip otherwise we are talking mediocrity for the next few weeks. Now Bob brought up a good point with the shorter wavelengths as we start transitioning into spring. One of the reasons I have believed we do see an eventual flip. But at that point will it be too late? Get a KU and all will be forgiven but if all that flip means is a cold and wet camping season then I will gladly forgo.

I agree with all that but that has been the tendency with the mjo in phase 5-7 and a positive soi. That’s actually what you would expect and why I lost interest in late January into early February. With the mjo in 8 and the soi negative we should see the dominant energy try to dump into the east.  Some energy might split and dump west but I think the bigger piece ends up east. 

Im also encouraged to see the epo ridge weaken and sink south at range. As wavelengths shorten all that epo ridge is doing is encouraging energy to dump into the west. Get that south and this time of year you will direct some unto the trough east of Hawaii and the majority will get funneled east. We can work with a trough off the west coast this time of year. Actually some of our big snows had that look.  And we can live with some troughing in the west as long as the dominant northern stream is directed into the east to mute the se ridge response. 

All that wasn’t going to happen in mjo 5-7. They all favor the trough digging into the west.  That’s why I was in deb mode.  You had the right “idea” how to get this general pattern to work but the pac forcing wasn’t going to let that happen. It “should” pretty soon. 

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20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I am pretty optimistic about prospects for something the week of the 18th. Would be great if we could salvage something from next weekend's cutter, but I am not biting on the GFS with is back-ender. It would have to morph into something different and I doubt that happens.

I’m not either but the euro jumped on that too. Gives me 3” on the back end lol. I think that’s a long shot but as long as guidance keeps digging the h5 low under us I guess there is a chance. Not worry tracking though as that’s the type of thing that will change a lot every run. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with all that but that has been the tendency with the mjo in phase 5-7 and a positive soi. That’s actually what you would expect and why I lost interest in late January into early February. With the mjo in 8 and the soi negative we should see the dominant energy try to dump into the east.  Some energy might split and dump west but I think the bigger piece ends up east. 

Im also encouraged to see the epo ridge weaken and sink south at range. As wavelengths shorten all that epo ridge is doing is encouraging energy to dump into the west. Get that south and this time of year you will direct some unto the trough east of Hawaii and the majority will get funneled east. We can work with a trough off the west coast this time of year. Actually some of our big snows had that look.  And we can live with some troughing in the west as long as the dominant northern stream is directed into the east to mute the se ridge response. 

All that wasn’t going to happen in mjo 5-7. They all favor the trough digging into the west.  That’s why I was in deb mode.  You had the right “idea” how to get this general pattern to work but the pac forcing wasn’t going to let that happen. It “should” pretty soon. 

Yes, if we can see the MJO cooperate I can see how this all can flip quickly. Why I would not be surprised that we see the models flip on a dime even inside the mid range. I am just not sure I believe the MJO progression as of yet. The MJO forecast has been much like the models performance this year. Somewhat lacking to say the least. Even tendencies I expect to see after many years of tracking given the looks that MJO have thrown at us have not materialized. Really, a lot of what I have expected to see just has not happened. Needless to say it has been discouraging. So if/when we actually see the MJO physically in 8 moving into 1 will I start to believe. Until then I am pretty much in wait and see mode. 

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1 hour ago, kurtstack said:

wow!  I dont often see you go out in a limb like that Bob.  Anyway here’s hoping that limb is a strong one.  For the sake if the emotions in this subforum i really do hope you are onto something!

Yea, I'm generally conservative with this stuff. I often keep my optimism to myself as well. My calculated best guess is yelling at me right now. At no point this entire winter have I felt this good about future prospects. Meaning this is the first time all winter I truly beleive we have a shot at a big event and an extended window that's conducive to working out in some fashion. The Jan event was big but what a weird way to get there. Lol. 

I'm willing to voice my thoughts because we're crossing into under d10 range for our first shot. Even if it doesn't work it looks like it's just the beginning. It can always go poof and if it does I'll bump troll myself. 

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yes, if we can see the MJO cooperate I can see how this all can flip quickly. Why I would not be surprised that we see the models flip on a dime even inside the mid range. I am just not sure I believe the MJO progression as of yet. The MJO forecast has been much like the models performance this year. Somewhat lacking to say the least. Even tendencies I expect to see after many years of tracking given the looks that MJO have thrown at us have not materialized. Really, a lot of what I have expected to see just has not happened. Needless to say it has been discouraging. So if/when we actually see the MJO physically in 8 moving into 1 will I start to believe. Until then I am pretty much in wait and see mode. 

Understatement of the year. This winter has kicked my a$$ 7 ways to Sunday. Almost every expectation was wrong. 

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62459D11-69D1-4BBB-9AA9-35C3D43368C6.thumb.png.3c138bf72bff38a3e03116fe554d1eb9.png

this should open some eyes. Almost all of that around DC is day 6-15. A 6” increase long range is huge on eps. I keep saying we don’t see big increases long range on the eps and it keeps upping the ante.

There are 22 members that suppress a storm to our south day 8-15. Many of them that miss us with one wave hit us with another wave so it’s not bad. I see it as a positive that almost half get snow south of us in the period. Much fewer misses north. 

I count 24 flush 5”+ DC hits. And MANY more 2-4” swipes. Only a handful total misses and more to the south than the north. Overall I’ve not seen a better snow signal for that lead in a long long time. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Wanted to add something to my previous post. I'm not expecting a quick flip to a classic +pna. My thoughts are more along the lines of the big western trough backing off enough to not have the rubber band effect with the SE ridge. A neutral pna with a decent atlantic can be a big east coast storm pattern. Drawn out overrunning or a real coastal. I think the setup is coming to our yards soon. Luck and chaos is needed to finish the job (like always)

Wow--if you're bullish I'm bullish, lol (and define "bump trolling", haha) I think there have been a few of us who have been having a gut feeling about February delivering (although for me it's been more history-based, lol). Let's hope we're right!

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But maestro says it can’t snow Feb 20-Feb 28. Lol

I ain't gonna live that down :lol:But no, no....If it starts on Feb 19th, it still counts! :D And remember...I just said that we haven't had a HECS during that time, not that it couldn't snow at all! (and even warning level snow in general is still kinda rare during those dates)

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

62459D11-69D1-4BBB-9AA9-35C3D43368C6.thumb.png.3c138bf72bff38a3e03116fe554d1eb9.png

this should open some eyes. Almost all of that around DC is day 6-15. A 6” increase long range is huge on eps. I keep saying we don’t see big increases long range on the eps and it keeps upping the ante.

There are 22 members that suppress a storm to our south day 8-15. Many of them that miss us with one wave hit us with another wave so it’s not bad. I see it as a positive that almost half get snow south of us in the period. Much fewer misses north. 

I count 24 flush 5”+ DC hits. And MANY more 2-4” swipes. Only a handful total misses and more to the south than the north. Overall I’ve not seen a better snow signal for that lead in a long long time. 

Zoomed out look for those not in the immediate metros. I like that it has improved each of the last 5 runs.

zoom.thumb.png.e0e2645bb36e8df1ffbec0f2affcb6f1.png

eta- not sure what happened there but I got the right panel now lol

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I ain't gonna live that down :lol:But no, no....If it starts on Feb 19th, it still counts! :D And remember...I just said that we haven't had a HECS during that time, not that it couldn't snow at all! (and even warning level snow in general is still kinda rare during those dates)

We haven’t had a top 20 event. But there have been 3 events that are in the top 50. And there are lots of weeks without a top 20 storm. It’s a statistical fluke of random chaos. On the list of things I worry about that’s on page 12 just below unicorn attacks and those ukmet maps ever being correct. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It does...but before that I LOVE seeing those 3-4 southeast HECS members!  Of course we don’t want to see the majority go that way or else it’s the maestro 1980 or 1973 nightmare, but given the type pattern seeing a few 20” NC snowstorms just makes me feel there is both the stj fetch we need and a good chance the boundary stays south of us this time. 

PSU, I see what you're trying to do, drag me back in, raise my hopes only to more completely crush them.  It won't work this time!  :cliff:

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