Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I beg to differ tbh. I think when things fall in place in the next 2 weeks we (both of our regions) will be grateful the SE ridge didnt get beaten totally into submission. I dont see it completely going away and that wont be a bad thing. Just wanted to hear other thoughts on this. Thanks for playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'll answer this. No. Ralph seems to think we live in New England. But the gefs also thinks the se ridge isn’t a problem. Snow mean went down some because a lot of members miss us to the south with a hecs lol Given the trends lately that look doesn’t bother me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ralph seems to think we live in New England. But the gefs also thinks the se ridge isn’t a problem. Snow mean went down some because a lot of members miss us to the south with a hecs lol psu explain to me while I wait for my coffee to sink in how that look is possible when the AO and the NAO from the CPC look aweful. My only concerns ( and I like to look at pros and cons too for snow ) the NAO and the AO off the CPC site look worse today than yesterday. Any ideas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Even if that furtado study is right it only shifts the phases about 1 phase. We are heading towards 1 by day 10-15 anyways. I agree the guidance will shift towards less ridge soon. Do you have this AM.'s new MJO forecasts? Do you still think we proceed to phase 1 from 8 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The EPS now shows a favorable track for next weekend's storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The EPS now shows a favorable track for next weekend's storm How far does the off run Euro go till ? And remember what the met said (33andrain) that his study on verifications of the off hour Euro was not that great. Granted no idea of the depth of the research or the sample size. Sorry if you know this already. I peaked really fast and it does look better but for the DC crew more improvement needed I think. ( that is if you put weight into this run ) maybe a trend to watch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ralph seems to think we live in New England. But the gefs also thinks the se ridge isn’t a problem. Snow mean went down some because a lot of members miss us to the south with a hecs lol Given the trends lately that look doesn’t bother me. This SE weenie isn't falling for it. My towel is still thrown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The EPS now shows a favorable track for next weekend's storm Tomorrow and Tuesday's system also looked nearly perfect for all of us for one or two runs of the euro and EPS at the same range btw. Then Dr No woke up and everyone else followed in his footsteps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I beg to differ tbh. I think when things fall in place in the next 2 weeks we (both of our regions) will be grateful the SE ridge didnt get beaten totally into submission. I dont see it completely going away and that wont be a bad thing. Just wanted to hear other thoughts on this. Thanks for playing Another way to answer the question is- when there is a real -NAO, meaning a persistent h5 block, esp if it is west-based (favors the MA region) there will not be a persistent SE ridge. NA blocking strongly favors a trough on the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: This SE weenie isn't falling for it. My towel is still thrown. You’re due. Don’t give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’re due. Don’t give up yet. So is New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I beg to differ tbh. I think when things fall in place in the next 2 weeks we (both of our regions) will be grateful the SE ridge didnt get beaten totally into submission. I dont see it completely going away and that wont be a bad thing. Just wanted to hear other thoughts on this. Thanks for playing You are north of DC. Even Philly a se ridge is bad 90% of the time but for DC it’s 99%. There are rare exceptions when you can survive one. PD2 was one of those. This pattern with 50/50s along with a se ridge is such an example where it “could” work but it’s still better if that ridge is gone. Anything that doesn’t time up perfectly will get to cut with a se ridge. NYC and New England can survive a west track jump to the coast. Philly sometimes. Dc rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So is New England They get snow in April. And Brady’s performance was less than enthusiastic in the Super Bowl. They are dead to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’re due. Don’t give up yet. I haven't given up in the sense if stopping tracking. I just mean to say that I think there is a less than say 10% chance for NC outside if the mountains. I'm going to be here to the bitter end rooting for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The EPS now shows a favorable track for next weekend's storm ??? Don't see it myself. Actually the setup looks very similar to what we have coming up the next day or two. So pretty much a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: ??? Don't see it myself. Actually the setup looks very similar to what we have coming up the next day or two. So pretty much a cutter. I mentioned the same thing in our sub, based on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 43 minutes ago, frd said: Do you have this AM.'s new MJO forecasts? Do you still think we proceed to phase 1 from 8 ? Euro says yea. Gefs fools around in 7 then goes into 8 late. But I think the gfs is having issues with how it’s measuring the mjo. Look at where the convection is centered for phases 8/1 now look at the gefs using the chi chart to estimate convection this looks like 8 then 1 to me. the gefs and eps aren’t actually far off on the wave progression but the gfs seems to be getting some kind of false signal somehow that is throwing off its graphical representation of the mjo. That’s my opinion. Both have a similar pattern day 8-15 now also. The only fly in the ointment is the se ridge but both somehow say it’s gonna snow anyways. The gefs beats down the ridge even more than the eps now and has quite a few southeast hecs solutions. The soi also looks to tank starting tomorrow through the run. About as negative a look as I’ve ever seen at times. Everything seems to be still on track imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 @C.A.P.E. the gefs snow means are so useless. The last 4 runs the “better” runs has a lower snowfall. That’s because they were dryer with less big rainstorms that the busted algorithm was counting as snow. The better runs had more “real” snow but a lower mean because it had some southern misses and less fake 37 degree snow from lows cutting northwest of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro says yea. Gefs fools around in 7 then goes into 8 late. But I think the gfs is having issues with how it’s measuring the mjo. Look at where the convection is centered for phases 8/1 Thanks. I read ( I know you know this ) that to get a better idea of the true MJO progression use the CFS or the Euro or that guy's tool Kyle Richie you see at times on DT. I know I klilled his name. I think the GEFS is not coupled to the ocean I think for this purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: Thanks. I read ( I know you know this ) that to get a better idea of the true MJO progression use the CFS or the Euro or that guy's tool Kyle Richie you see at times on DT. I know I klilled his name. I think the GEFS is not coupled to the ocean I think for this purpose Cfs goes nuclear into 8. Not sure I buy that but the differences are moot since they all get into forcing locations good for cold. Just differ on amplitude and exact location 8/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cfs goes nuclear into 8. Not sure I buy that but the differences are moot since they all get into forcing locations good for cold. Just differ on amplitude and exact location 8/1. Good, at least no set backs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: I mentioned the same thing in our sub, based on this. I take it that is the 06Z EPS? Don't follow it myself so know nothing about it but most of what I have heard hasn't been exactly stellar on its performance. So just going by the 00Z the look is strikingly similar to what we have on our doorstep though it may be marginally better. Besides the obvious smoothing when you compare the 60 hr to the 132 everything is the same. The only differences we are seeing are with the magnitude of the ridging in the east and the tilt of the Midwest trough. These two differences make the setup a little better. But if you look back 4-5 days ago for this incoming Mon/Tues system we were seeing the exact same thing at 500's that we are seeing with the 132 map. Neutral tilt Midwest trough and a much more muted ridging in the east. Only as it neared in time did we see the trough and ridging morph into what we have now. I fully expect to see that progression here as well with the weekend system. Now don't get me wrong, would love to see us get hammered. But I just don't see it at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cfs goes nuclear into 8. Not sure I buy that but the differences are moot since they all get into forcing locations good for cold. Just differ on amplitude and exact location 8/1. Ah forgot to mention my only concern is the AO and the NAO. Should not the composite look of MJO phase 8 has I thought a -AO and also a - NAO. The CPC ensembles show a pathetrc look there. Maybe the lag effect and such means you will not see those two indicies improve ( decline ) until we move closer to phase 8. Maybe I am looking at the wrong model for cluse on that front. American model, American issues on the forecasting of the AO and the NAO Wonder what the Euro shows for the AO and NAO, hopefully that is more accurate This was from Don S moments ago The preliminary AO value today is +2.033. That’s not a good development for the extended range until the wave lengths begin to shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I fully expect to see that progression here as well with the weekend system. Now don't get me wrong, would love to see us get hammered. But I just don't see it at this time. Good post , plus I think the airmass next weekend is much warmer too. Not like this AM when many were in the teens . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: ??? Don't see it myself. Actually the setup looks very similar to what we have coming up the next day or two. So pretty much a cutter. Someone in the other sub-forum must have said that. Then he comes here and parrots. He has zero clue about anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I'm not sure how some on here enjoy the weather at all....corkscrewing themselves into the ground reading every single piece of competing information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, frd said: Good post , plus I think the airmass next weekend is much warmer too. Not like this AM when many were in the teens . 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Someone in the other forum must have said that. Then he comes here and parrots. He has zero clue about anything. One thing I will say. Slow that 50/50 down or speed that trough drop by a day and we might very well be in business. Just don't see that happening at this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Someone in the other forum must have said that. Then he comes here and parrots. He has zero clue about anything. Thanks. I have a stormvista account. That's where I got it. What's with the condescending tone? Also, jb actually mentioned it it in his latest,update. As far as the accuracy of off run eps, I've followed,them over the last month and they do tend to sniff out changes in the 00z 12z runs....from what I've noticed at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: Good post , plus I think the airmass next weekend is much warmer too. Not like this AM when many were in the teens . I considered posting that as well. When you look at the warmth and then the somewhat muted ridging showing on the 500's they really don't jive with each other. Very strong signal with the temps suggestive of a much stronger ridge. Think what we have is a small camp of outliers that are messing with the 500's giving a better look then what we can probably expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: Thanks. I have a stormvista account. That's where I got it. What's with the condescending tone? Also, jb actually mentioned it it in his latest,update. As far as the accuracy of off run eps, I've followed,them over the last month and they do tend to sniff out changes in the 00z 12z runs....from what I've noticed at least. CAPE wasn't referring to you but instead snowman88 or what ever his handle is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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