Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: When you can grab the pebble from my hand you will have learned grasshopper ........ Hey.... I am dating myself right. I bet you know where that line is from Well, that does sound familiar, though I cannot quite recall the show it was from (so perhaps dating myself too, haha!) There's of course "Karate Kid", as well: show me wax on, wax off...sand the floor...paint the fence...side-side. Yes, Daniel-san, only when you master these, will you get a true HECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So one 12-18 inch late February storm in the last 60 years? Forgive me if I don't like those odds...was really hoping for PD, but...might not be meant to be (I mean, there is minimal chance with that now, right?) Would love to be surprised at late February, though. But historically, doesn't appear to be favorable...but I'll gladly be wrong! You’re talking about only an 8 day period. There are so few 12”+ storms that with the exception of a few lucky weeks there are several 8 day periods without a lot of 12”+ storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Like January all over. The first cutter should setup the second cutter which will dip the baroclinic zone for the wave that goes south but sets the stage for the catalyst system which we have to get the rain before we get to the rainbow after that oh wait its St Patty's Day where did winter go? Fingers crossed we dont have a repeat scenario this month. Feb 20+ ftmfw!! Thought you were excited for this epo gradient pattern?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thought you were excited for this epo gradient pattern?! Was .... pending where the boundary set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, that does sound familiar, though I cannot quite recall the show it was from (so perhaps dating myself too, haha!) If the long range was exciting I would never post this , but because we still have a ways to go here you are : psu got me thinking of martial arts with his emoji David Caradine I believe as the character ages The show was called Kung Fu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 How about we will those clouds and precip down in Jebman land to organize into a lp; ride up what's left of the cold front and give us 3-5 Saturday night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Like January all over. The first cutter should setup the second cutter which will dip the baroclinic zone for the wave that goes south but sets the stage for the catalyst system which we have to get the rain before we get to the rainbow after that oh wait its St Patty's Day where did winter go? Fingers crossed we dont have a repeat scenario this month. Feb 20+ ftmfw!! The cutter after the cutter after the cutter sets up the 1-3” day 15!!! winning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was .... pending where the boundary set up. When was the last time we had a -epo -pna pattern with no blocking, no suppressed tpv, and the epo was centered off the west coast and we got a lot of snow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 @psuhoffman We always talk about how the NAO region is tough for models to predict....usually it comes into focus in the med range. The GEFS made a pretty big jump to a stout -NAO by D10. Pretty dramatic shift imo compared to 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When was the last time we had a -epo -pna pattern with no blocking, no suppressed tpv, and the epo was centered off the west coast and we got a lot of snow??? January 17, 1746 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 "The mystical month of February" is not so "mystical" this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: January 17, 1746 Lol... I do deb sometimes...but I don’t do it because I’m emotional or trolling or in a bad mood...I do it when the pattern just isn’t right according to history. I’ve seen the models pop out snow in a pattern that just isn’t favorable time and time and time again (just 3 weeks ago they did this same game with that swfe) and 90% of the time it degrades to rain as we get closer. Not always, flukes happen. But I don’t like counting on flukes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, poolz1 said: @psuhoffman We always talk about how the NAO region is tough for models to predict....usually it comes into focus in the med range. The GEFS made a pretty big jump to a stout -NAO by D10. Pretty dramatic shift imo compared to 12z... It fell back in line. The eps tanks the NAO around day 8 and holds it through the run. Weeklies and cfs holds it into March. Gfs lost it at 12z and brought it back 18z. I said after 12z I’m not reacting to one gefs run unless the eps follows. Gefs has a severe issue with being jumpy because it’s not dispersed enough. At times the op euro scores higher at day 10. That’s pathetic! They need to fix that with the next major upgrade or else the ncep package is of limited usefulness at range. Overall the -NAO is moving closer in time. It’s down to about 8 days away now. It went pretty negative the last few days which sets up the 50/50 but it breaks down too quickly and so our threat Tuesday is degrading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 18z gefs was a better run imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It fell back in line. The eps tanks the NAO around day 8 and holds it through the run. Weeklies and cfs holds it into March. Gfs lost it at 12z and brought it back 18z. I said after 12z I’m not reacting to one gefs run unless the eps follows. Gefs has a severe issue with being jumpy because it’s not dispersed enough. At times the op euro scores higher at day 10. That’s pathetic! They need to fix that with the next major upgrade or else the ncep package is of limited usefulness at range. Overall the -NAO is moving closer in time. It’s down to about 8 days away now. It went pretty negative the last few days which sets up the 50/50 but it breaks down too quickly and so our threat Tuesday is degrading. Was out all day today and wasn't watching runs. You are right about the eps but the gefs hasnt had a ripe NAO as early as D10 at all. EPS hinted at 00z. Who knows...but, if it's actually going to happen this is the way it starts. Sit and wait...... Went to the hunting/fishing show in Harrisburg yesterday.....I want snow badly but i am also getting the fishing bug big time! Give me a spring drought in March so we can have summer flow and spring fishing conditions. Been a long time since we have had below norm precip in spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: If the long range was exciting I would never post this , but because we still have a ways to go here you are : psu got me thinking of martial arts with his emoji David Caradine I believe as the character ages The show was called Kung Fu I’m going to roam the Earth like Caine...looking for snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Went to the hunting/fishing show in Harrisburg yesterday.....I want snow badly but i am also getting the fishing bug big time! Give me a spring drought in March so we can have summer flow and spring fishing conditions. Been a long time since we have had below norm precip in spring. Same. We should have a fishing thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 48 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Same. We should have a fishing thread. It'll be here soon! http://snaggedline.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Where did everyone go? The 18z GFS ensembles are showing some real nice stuff in the long range, I'm starting to wonder if the mean -PNA ridge in the Pacific will trend toward waning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 See the thing about the GFS is that it really sucks from hr 6 to hr 384. There is no hint of any change other than repeated dog shit in a flaming bag. If there is a pattern change then it did not get the memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 This is a pretty legit storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is a pretty legit storm. For Detroit. Yes I agree. Motown 1 MAtown 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: See the thing about the GFS is that it really sucks from hr 6 to hr 384. There is no hint of any change other than repeated dog shit in a flaming bag. If there is a pattern change then it did not get the memo. I thought there were some tiny improvements between 200-240...just my novice opinion. Perhaps the others can weigh in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I thought there were some tiny improvements between 200-240...just my novice opinion. Perhaps the others can weigh in! Get some sleep and rest up for 2019-20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 EPS looks fine. Disappointing slightly that it still doesn’t want to progress the trough east. It’s cold in general day 10-15 but with the ridge there the threat of cutters exists. Does have a signal for something frozen day 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This week doesn’t bother me much. Phase 6/7 isn’t a good look. This is about what should happen. I’ve tried not to deb on it when models were spitting out pretty snow maps and people wanted to believe but I never had much hope before the 20th. But if we get phase 8/1 and a -soi and the trough stays out west and we get cutters the following week, hide all the cute furry animals!!! The advertised NA look across guidance better verity, because despite the positive trends with the MJO/SOI, models are persistent with some degree of toughing out west, and ridging in the SE. Need a legit block/50-50 to beat that down. Maybe at some point we get a more favorable EPAC, but we are probably looking at March unless current guidance is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS looks fine. Disappointing slightly that it still doesn’t want to progress the trough east. It’s cold in general day 10-15 but with the ridge there the threat of cutters exists. Does have a signal for something frozen day 10-15. 0z GEFS shifts the coldest anomalies to the NE for the last week of Feb. Really beats down the SE ridge. Maybe it has caught on. EPS seems to be slowly moving in that direction, but still stubborn with the W US trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 EPS looks fine. Disappointing slightly that it still doesn’t want to progress the trough east. It’s cold in general day 10-15 but with the ridge there the threat of cutters exists. Does have a signal for something frozen day 10-15. We sound idiotic every time we post something like the last line you wrote 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Signal for 60s in the extended...that's a tough temp for snow but we will see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: EPS looks fine. Disappointing slightly that it still doesn’t want to progress the trough east. It’s cold in general day 10-15 but with the ridge there the threat of cutters exists. Does have a signal for something frozen day 10-15. We sound idiotic every time we post something like the last line you wrote Saying what the euro shows isn’t a prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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