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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The other day he was whining because it was 3” for the whole 15 days.  Now it has 3” the first 7 days and another 3” the last 8. 

I'm dead serious here....and I'm sure others do it too but Ji believes deep down that the more he complains and says winter over that somehow magically the models start showing more snow. Maybe he will admit it but after all of these years we all have a sense of each others personality defects.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Ok... as for the se ridge... we will see but all winter the day 10-15 has trended towards the tropical forcing analogs. That’s been bad most of the time. I’m expecting the same in our favor now. 

@Bob Chill was saying how weenieish the 12z GEFS was, but it has a SE ridge the entire time as well and has the -NAO/50-50 combo.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Weird look on EPS. Great -NAO. Best 50/50 I’ve ever seen in a day 15 ensemble. Trough east of Hawaii. Looking at pressure and precip day 10 soi is negative and mjo should be in 8/1. But it still has a -pna and SE ridge. I’m just going to assume it’s wrong since everything says there should be a trough in the east. 

I know the answer to this is yes as anything is possible, but could the SE ridge holding actually be correct and one of those other teleconnections or indices wrong? And if so, if there was one thing driving the se ridge in contrast to the good MJO and soi looks what do you think it could be?

On the plus side, that se ridge pretty much gets squashed down on other guidance so there's that.

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge.  

I know I haven't been paying attention as much lately, but are we actually in a Nino? If anything its a warm neutral I would think. Either way guidance likes some SE ridge action, for whatever reason. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge.  

Furtado’s study?  I thought that was only for phase 7/8. That goes all the way into 8/1 and 1? SOAB!  Ok so just venting here then...because a sswe is supposed to be this god darn awesome thing and all...so in a nino with a early season ssw WHAT FREAKING PHASE do we want?  Are they somehow all bad?!?  

Obviously that’s not directed at you wxusaf. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Furtado’s study?  I thought that was only for phase 7/8. That goes all the way into 8/1 and 1? SOAB!  Ok so just venting here then...because a sswe is supposed to be this god darn awesome thing and all...so in a nino with a early season ssw WHAT FREAKING PHASE do we want?  Are they somehow all bad?!?  

Obviously that’s not directed at you wxusaf. 

I could be wrong, I was just going off memory.  Could just be 7/8.  

 

On a related note, I wonder if the SSW *does* end up actually saving this winter from being a raging dumpster fire for all of the eastern CONUS.  Will be an interesting study.  

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I could be wrong, I was just going off memory.  Could just be 7/8.  

 

On a related note, I wonder if the SSW *does* end up actually saving this winter from being a raging dumpster fire for all of the eastern CONUS.  Will be an interesting study.  

Other than one tpv displacement that only lead to 5.5” of snow in my yard...I’ve seen no sign its been of benefit. And now I see chatter that it’s lingering effects could be disrupting the typical response to favorable tropical forcing. So how it’s helping us so far is beyond me. 

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week.  Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario 

You would think the pattern would be better by then

Good one.  Won’t look like that anyway.  Maybe Friday will deliver. Looking at the models is folly so who knows. 

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week.  Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario 

You would think the pattern would be better by then

I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and  50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.

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I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and  50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.
We might have to wait till week 3(lol) to get the cleanest looks but I think starting next week every threat is a threat
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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and  50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.

Yeah I meant the op runs.  Agree things are virtually playing out like predicted.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and  50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.

We might have to wait till week 3(lol) to get the cleanest looks but I think starting next week every threat is a threat

The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly  cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers.

Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly  cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers.

Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this.

Especially this time of year. Cold dry warm wet for 3 more weeks and Winter is just about in the books. I’ll take active chips fall mode any February 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly  cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers.

Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this.

Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. 

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@Bob Chill

even up here it’s hit or miss. There have been some epic epo patterns that built a glaciers here like feb 1993 and feb 1994 but more often the MO without blocking is 1-2” and a lot of rain.  Not always. I’ll feel a lot better about our chances once real blocking sets up and there is a locked in 50/50.  This setup was almost perfect but the NAO breaks down 24 hours too soon and might open the door to a cut. 

For anyone else wondering we would want the NAO to relax and break if we had a +pna but with a -pna it needs to hold enough to force storms under us despite a bad trough axis. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. 

Based on the hp strength and placements we keep seeing, I don't see that as a problem. Get a few of those and one will prob hit a wall of confluence and force the mess under us and hit us pretty flush. No shortage of 1040s+ showing up in between shortwaves. Even though the atl isn't ideal, it's still a lot better than this winter's base state so far. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Based on the hp strength and placements we keep seeing, I don't see that as a problem. Get a few of those and one will prob hit a wall of confluence and force the mess under us and hit us pretty flush. No shortage of 1040s+ showing up in between shortwaves. Even though the atl isn't ideal, it's still a lot better than this winter's base state so far. 

I tend to agree...just being guarded given my fail so far. 

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