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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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We all know the Euro is a fail, and it could happen that way. And we don’t need another deluge, even if it starts frozen. But I don’t think we should get tied to any scenarios until at least Thursday or Friday (as Bob mentioned).  It’s the typical 2 steps forward 1 step back. GEFS was a great run, but the Euro said no, as generally happens around this time.  We can always hope for a nice clean event for a PD3 if we can indeed score blocking. 

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Wait, aren’t we supposed to not talk details (amounts and who mixes who doesn't) at 5-6 day leads? This place is confusing at times. :D

I think when it’s the Euro it’s a sharper wound.  If the JMA said no it would an lol moment and move on.  Euro no’s are death blows

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

I am okay with it because i after i saw the 00z euro and the 6z and 12z gfs...i am resigned to the fact that this storm will be a letdown but anything that i can get to pad the stats I am good for. This is a transitional week so this is bonus snow. Maybe the euro is doing the lag/too much amplification in the mid range thing too. Friday was my demarcation day. If it was still a threat by Friday, i would take it more seriously 

At least the Euro is considering bringing back the -NAO. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its all prelude to the epic pattern coming in 10-15 days. This time it's for real.

You are probably kidding but I am not...if these day 10 looks are even remotely close than an epic pattern is coming day 10+.  

pressuregood.thumb.png.8880d71edfd8fd30e657dc52c4b43ccd.png

crashing soi

pressuregood2.thumb.png.927c34005426e7bfe9c5955e241b6b22.png

I will take that look day 10 and roll with it

So the op euro is an example of how next week could fail...and I kind of think that's how it "might" go down but I am confident we will have more chances and better ones after.  

NOT saying next week will fail... but if it does I think a better pattern is on the way with the trough axis shifting east.  

 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd be exponentially happier with that compared to all rain. 

Don’t want to kill anyone’s happiness. Lol. But we’re in different places I think. We’re entering the 4th quarter but your up by 7 and I’m down by 14 wrt climo so settling for a fg is different for me.  I suck at analogies...sorry. 

Im very optimistic we see another warning event this year.  Maybe more than one. Just not sure this is going to be one of them. 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

I am okay with it because i after i saw the 00z euro and the 6z and 12z gfs...i am resigned to the fact that this storm will be a letdown but anything that i can get to pad the stats I am good for. This is a transitional week so this is bonus snow. Maybe the euro is doing the lag/too much amplification in the mid range thing too. Friday was my demarcation day. If it was still a threat by Friday, i would take it more seriously 

Very reasonable 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Don’t want to kill anyone’s happiness. Lol. But we’re in different places I think. We’re entering the 4th quarter but your up by 7 and I’m down by 14 wrt climo so settling for a fg is different for me.  I suck at analogies...sorry. 

Im very optimistic we see another warning event this year.  Maybe more than one. Just not this is going to be one of them. 

I think it will be more than one for your area easily.  Next week has a much better chance to work for you.  You might be down by 14 but your team is much stronger. 

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

"meh" is all I'll say to a little snow changing over to a big driving rainstorm. Kinda sucks, but I suppose it's better than nothing.

i'm in the "not too interested in that" camp as well, but on the bright side, it does provide a glimmer of hope that the transition to mix/rain gets delayed.  if it starts as rain, that ain't good.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Eps snow actually went up but mostly in long range

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

End of run.  

Thanks ! 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes...game on!!!

psu you think that the EPS might trend even better ( 360 hours is Feb 21 st ) beyond this look here. 

It looks like it is moving towards the phase 8 MJO composite but is lacking I feel with the ridging out West. 

Then again that steroid Pac jet has been there all winter , the fast flow, etc.,  maybe all the changes taking place slow it, and it changes. 

 

 

 

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Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 
Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again
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