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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Ehh.  The front piece is further disconnected from the second wave at 141.  Looks to mostly miss south.  Slower with the second as well.

yeah, I see that.  Still at distance, its not far from something decent.  Not going to fret this far out.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ha wave 1 escapes south wave 2 a cutter. One of the fears we mentioned earlier. Cave to the 0z euro already?

I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. 

Oh I know man this us the most usual and often way we fail in these setups so I cant say a move to it wasnt expected. Now we gotta hope the Sunday night event the GGEM is strongest on verifies because if the GFS OP is close we are back to 60s middle of next week. Fugly.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. 

that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s early but this run looks too close to my nightmare fail scenario I outlined earlier this morning. A weak lead wave with a delayed stronger second ejection is playing with fire in this setup imo. 

Being an op run in way out there range, discussing "details" has to be done knowing the perils of doing so at this range.

IMO 500's (and surface to me) looked better early on and I hoped surface further on would reflect.  It didnt.    

Oh well, 6 hrs and the ol man will get another stab at it.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At D5+ we have plenty of time to lose a good solution (today), shift back so a sick solution (next couple days), and then lose it all again in the short range. 

I’m not declaring anything dead. But I’ve also never jumped on this because these epo se ridge gradient type patterns shift north 75% of the time. We can snow that way but more often it ends up breaking our hearts. I’m just playing the odds. 

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