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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I was not speaking about the Euro.. it has had a craptastic year as well. Actually, most long ranges have been pretty sucky - except when they predict cutters with rain! LOL! As soon as the lock on that they seem to be right!  But ya, it has been a rough year!

 

Yeah, my point is simply that sometimes we like to pick a model and dump on it. I think we could pick on every model this year and say that they've all sucked about the same this year. 

We all know the deal with cutters. They can shift 200-300 miles and we still rain. It doesn't matter. We don't notice shifts because our outcome is pretty much the same.  Different story for chicago and other midwest states/cities. 

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59 minutes ago, frd said:

That does look good. With the typical lag effect later Feb could be looking good.  Would be awesome to be at Feb 10th to 15th and have big time negative SOI values and see on the medium range real threats and a - NAO. That would add confidence. Also allows for a period where the ocean and atmosphere couple.     

Sometimes the lag can be annoying... last year we had the MJO and SOI become favorable in February and the pattern took 2 weeks to really respond.  BUT...NAM was a wrecked mess of warm air last year and so it took a while to get right, and then even once it did get right we were in a nina and had to watch a couple miller b storms hit to our northeast then a weak system get squashed before we finally cashed in with one good classic west to east system. 

That is kind of the MO in a nina NOT a nino.  Some of the data diving I have done suggests that during a nina we are totally and completely screwed without a -AO/NAO.  Since 1950 I only found 1 warning event at BWI during a nina without blocking during or before the event.  That is why a nina sucks so bad...typically we can luck our way to snow without NAO or AO help...but during a Nina forget it.  However...I also found that even during a -NAO our chances are muted somewhat.  We need a pretty stout -NAO to press the pattern south or else we get miller b storms that effect to our north.  1996 was the exception because the blocking was extreme enough to cause those miller b storms to be southern stream hybrids and transfer south of us.  Last March we finally got one of those when the blocking became extreme enough. 

During a neutral our results are good but still somewhat hit or miss with a -NAO.  The thing is...during a weak to moderate nino a -NAO is like GOLD!  We tend to get obliterated when we get legit blocking during a weak/moderate nino.  Some of the nino's that failed were because we never got nao help.  1995 we got our one storm during the only real blocking period.  2007 we never got much nao help.  2005 had some blocking but it was weak sauce and so we had a few decent snowstorms but the big stuff hit new England.  When we get legit blocking during a nino though...that is when we go on a snow blitz.  

ANd yea I know there have been some things about this nino that do not fit the mold but the stj is not one of them, the stj has been strong all year.  I also don't think the lag will be as much this year as last year.  So if we can get the forcing right by the 10th or so and get the pattern right by the 20th or so...we have time to sneak in a couple really good threats before time runs out.  

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13 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

As for the coming storm, not quite sure what to believe. Some respected posters on here say that the ensembles have been useless all year and to just stick with the ops. If that's the case than I'd say things are looking pretty good. But if you do look at the MSLP placement on the GEFS for the upcoming threat next week you can see how lost it really is. Still 6-7 days out and I think we need to get it under 96hrs before we know the general way it will play out. 

 

Won't speak for what other posters have stated but my general feelings are this. The ensembles have been extremely rough outside of 10 days this year. But inside of of ten they have settled down somewhat and are most definitely the go to in my book from 5-10 days. Only when we get the ops runs around 5 days or so do I start putting more weight on their solutions. And that is highly dependent on when they begin showing good run over run continuity. And when I mean good continuity I am referring to the 500 mb level not the surface. The surface quite often can look very similar from run to run but how the model is getting there is can differ somewhat greatly. So you focus on the 500s which drives the surface and when you see that settle down you have a good indication that the model is coming to terms on how the general evolution will occur so you can now begin focusing on the finer details. And right now the op runs just are not there in my mind despite the solutions are spitting out snow from run to run. So the ensembles are where I will place the most weight for the time being.

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People shouldn't miss the fact we have legit blocking right now and that is what sets the course of events in motion for the next 10 days.   It's not the strongest block ever, and its transient and only last a few days but the block forces that system in the west to cut under it which becomes the 50/50 low that holds in confluence and the high pressure creating our snow threat next week.  Without that block next week would be another cutter.  Because the block breaks down...it still could be but it creates at least a chance.  

Legit1.thumb.png.98adea9c998ca742220db444bfdd7a4c.png

You can see the block is breaking down here but it did the dirty work and we have a perfect 50/50 to work with.  

legit2.thumb.png.518f56a0c8cac5e1eb64aecaa38e3914.png

A lot of our snowstorms come AFTER a block has broken down but it did the dirty work needed.  

Beyond this...towards day 10 we lose the 50/50 signal as without any blocking odds are it will slide out.  Towards day 15 we see the signal for a 50/50 again at the same time we see some -NAO signal on both the EPS and GEFS.  

Given the monster EPO ridge it doesn't have to be a crazy NAO block. Even some modest ridging there can be enough to get a system to cut under into the 50/50 and combined with the epo pressing cold into the CONUS suppress the trough enough to get a system under us.  But we need SOME nao help to get this whole thing to work.  We got it this week, it was mostly unnoticed because we are torching with cutters but the posible positive impacts come next week.  If we can get another period with some -nao we should get another legit threat.  If we can get some sustained blocking we could get a longer favorable period.  

Today's mjo update still shows all guidance getting into phase 8 by day 10-15.  Euro still faster then the others by a few days.  The pressure anomalies on both the GEFS and EPS suggest a crashing SOI by day 6-10.  This should favor a trough in the eastern US heading into late February and early March.  

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1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

6z GFS ensembles doesn't look good at the end, the pattern is delaying and it's reaching a point maybe. 

agree...split flow...-NAO/huge 50 50 low and MJO in phase 8/1. SE ridge beaten down

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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47 minutes ago, frd said:

This might be the best look form the gfs in a while. yes, it at 384 hours, but not bad at least it shows potential in a uniform manner and makes sense based on where we are headed, hopefully. Maybe for us the best happens after Feb 14 th.  

Wow, I'm not a fan of snowfall maps since they're thrown around like candy on Halloween but that is an impressive signal...thanks for showing.  

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wow, I'm not a fan of snowfall maps since they're thrown around like candy on Halloween but that is an impressive signal...thanks for showing.  

 

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wow, I'm not a fan of snowfall maps since they're thrown around like candy on Halloween but that is an impressive signal...thanks for showing.  

Seems like all hell is going to break loose soon in the PAC. 

MJO signals only getting stronger and the dive psu mentions is on the doorsteps. 

Really beginning to wonder if all this good talk from the Pac happens, we will, by association,  get some form of -NAO . East based, West based, retro to the Davis Straights ? 

Alot of things are lining up to come together in the next 3 to 7 days. The higher orbit MJO phase 8 seems likely.  Short-term coupling seems a good bet too. 

I look for a diving AO soon after the ramp up, and a big drop in the SOI.   It also appears the -EPO is going to really be legit. 

Some of the analogs had a major snowstorm near the end of Feb.,  or early March. Speculation, but just throwing it out there. 

 

 

  

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice! Yeah I wasnt sure if 'too much of a good thing' applied to the MJO.

I dont think so, but its irrelevant the Euro and other guidance isn't as crazy so the GEFS is probably overdone anyways.  But they all have a very healthy wave into Phase 8 and implied 1 after.  

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I’m very happy to hear so many positives on here today because on Twitter yesterday, I saw that Micheal Ventrice posted a EURO prediction of -PNA for the next 2 weeks. He said this indicated warming in the east.   I understand that the predictions for a -PNA aren’t great for us, but if we get a -NAO or 50/50 low, and an amplified MJO 8, that should help to overcome the -PNA. Am I understanding this correctly?  Also, predicting warmth 2 weeks out based on model run (especially this year) doesn’t seem to make sense.   

 

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@C.A.P.E. We were following the CFS a while ago.  Might have the best look yet today.

IF...big IF...this is how the rest of winter plays out we could have a nice ending.

Week 3

week3.thumb.png.79aae70a79f5c158bcd60c422084da38.png

Enough blocking/50-50 week 3 to suppress the boundary south of us...that is a perfect look for west to east waves to track just under us.  

Then we finish with a classic -NAO/+PNA look into spring

week4.thumb.png.1660b709e574e28f4196f74261462bd9.pngweek5.thumb.png.e5478c28c77235e857937c6b5ab63940.png

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7 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m very happy to hear so many positives on here today because on Twitter yesterday, I saw that Micheal Ventrice posted a EURO prediction of -PNA for the next 2 weeks. He said this indicated warming in the east.   I understand that the predictions for a -PNA aren’t great for us, but if we get a -NAO or 50/50 low, and an amplified MJO 8, that should help to overcome the -PNA. Am I understanding this correctly?  Also, predicting warmth 2 weeks out based on model run (especially this year) doesn’t seem to make sense.   

 

He has had issues like everyone. His in-house model did badly, and that blue thunder or whatever you call it,  was a dud. 

 

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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's insane. Hopefully not too much of a good thing.

You know the GEFS's  crazy amp in phase 8 has support from the CFS, which has been leading so far in the progress of the current MJO. 

Even today the Euro moved towards the GEFS and the CFS 

You could speculate, that if the CFS has the right idea of the MJO, it would yield a more accurate forecast at long leads. 

 

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No way, lets blast the MJO into 20 STD phase 8/1/2 and enjoy a parade of 960 lows bombing off the VA Capes to the Benchmark.  

So you don't see suppression issue if we get a mega block?  

BTW, i'm all about your last statement....just concerned for a friend.

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