Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 27 minutes ago, Ji said: what are the other solutions? Rain? suppressed? what were you expecting 7 days out? Stronger primary to the NW and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Even though the EPS isn't on board, and obviously that's a red flag, that's two op runs in a row that are pretty good. I'm interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Stronger primary to the NW and rain. This is exactly what I would expect with these types of storms, but it's worth tracking because it's all we have on the menu at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 This has Dec 2012 written all over it (the euro solution). We are fine with a low in the tn valley. If that happens we usually get pretty heavy precip, hang on to low level cold during the dry slot/drizzle part and cold as the low passes or jumps. If that low is further west, we don’t get much precip and we seem to warm faster at the low levels. Just my take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Thanks. Sounds like Boston will be all caught up to us by next week. Not saying this is how the storm evolves but if it does there are two things we need to watch for. First we want to see strong High pressure over top of us. The stronger the quicker we see the primary transfer over to the coastal. Second we don't want the track of the primary too far west. The farther west it is the longer it takes for the secondary (coastal) to take over. And that is what we saw with the latest EPS, a further west track. Preferably what we want to see is the primary tracking just to the west of the Apps with strong high pressure over top. This should force a much quicker transfer off the coast probably around OBX up to the mouth of the Bay. This gives us the best of both worlds as we score from the initial over running and then we score from the developing CCB (cold conveyor belt) snows. The quicker transfer also affords the luxury of mitigating partially if not completely the mid levels getting pooched for the cities from the primary to the west, as the coastal takes over and flips the mid-levels into a NE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Glancing over the EPS and there is a stronger signal at 500's for redevelopment of an amplifying coastal from a primary driving into the lakes. Now how that would possibly play out for our region is anyone's guess at this point. Would be dependent on how far west the primary is as it pulls up, how quickly we see the transfer and the location of where that transfer actually begins to occur. We did see a little bit of a drawback on the snowfall means and I have to question if that may be a result of the EPS favoring an initial transfer to just off our coast putting us in no man's land as the over running gets cut off and the coastal CCb has yet to be formed. But that is merely speculation because I didn't dive into the individual members. Miller B screwjob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Still way too far away to deeply dig in but imho, the d15 EPS mean h5 panel looks like a potential prolific winter wx producing pattern and our area isn't out of the game. I'm sure it will look different by the time it gets to d10 but there's a lot to like even though our perfect HECS pattern seems to have vaporized. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Miller B screwjob? Maybe. Always that possibility. Probably pretty much depends on how far west that primary tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 45 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This sounds more like it. And the 'Head Honcho' pops his head up for a rare appearance to speak words of wisdom. Then he quietly retreats back to his 'Fortress of Solitude'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still way too far away to deeply dig in but imho, the d15 EPS mean h5 panel looks like a potential prolific winter wx producing pattern and our area isn't out of the game. I'm sure it will look different by the time it gets to d10 but there's a lot to like even though our perfect HECS pattern seems to have vaporized. If the opposite trend with some blocking shows up now that the mjo and soi seem to be cooperating, if we can just get some NAO help it would suppress that whole SW to NE trough and we would be perfect. Doesn’t have to be a prolific block just some ridging would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the opposite trend with some blocking shows up now that the mjo and soi seem to be cooperating, if we can just get some NAO help it would suppress that whole SW to NE trough and we would be perfect. Doesn’t have to be a prolific block just some ridging would do it. Exactly what I was thinking. Even as is would imply oscillating AN/BN temps with an active storm track in our general area. I do think the NE is going to go into some sort of furious catchup to snow climo mode here shortly. If I lived anywhere in SNE I would like what I see more than at any previous time this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 We are back to OK again as predicted starting Sunday. I don’t think the Tuesday event cuts but rather snugs up against western side of mountains along WV/Va border and we get yet another long mostly light-moderate overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Agreed. This is not going to be a clean snowfall for I95 areas probably (hopefully) a thump to mix then either drizzle or dryslot type deal. N and W should do well if the general idea holds. Thanks for the deterministic forecast. I’ll make my plans accordingly.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 no matter what the pattern...the EPS gives us 3-4 inches through 360 in snowfall mean every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly what I was thinking. Even as is would imply oscillating AN/BN temps with an active storm track in our general area. I do think the NE is going to go into some sort of furious catchup to snow climo mode here shortly. If I lived anywhere in SNE I would like what I see more than at any previous time this entire winter. Yeah, I've been thinking that since about last Saturday. Northeast starts playing catchup next week. They'll continue it looks like straight to the middle/end of march. We'll be on the edge next week. I wouldn't have any expectations for early next week to deliver at all. It might. But it's a long shot for the corridor imo. That southeast ridge is a killer. Our fun potentially starts toward the end of next week as the mjo goes into 8, 1, 2, soi tanks and in turn our SE ridge gets beat back. GEFS hints at the SE ridge getting beat back next Thursday. Similar to the EPS. However, the GEFS then builds it back until the end of its run while the EPS has no SE ridge. I'm expecting the GEFS to continue to trend towards the EPS with this feature over the next 48 hrs. If this occurs we would be looking at a more favorable "more snow than rain/mix" pattern starting towards the end of next week imo. Edit: IF we trend toward a more favorable pattern by next thursday/friday....the corridor would still have a solid 4 weeks of snow opportunities before climo says shut out. Remember, we've had snow in March the last 4 years. It's not as hard as we think. I plow snow on Kent Island and we got 8 inches on March 20 last year. Not PSU land but the coastal plain. Plenty of time for everyone to go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 we really need this thump to happen sooner than later....CAD will only be deep enough to support snow for so long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 38 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Maybe. Always that possibility. Probably pretty much depends on how far west that primary tracks. He knew that. Just wanted to to be first to Proclaim this deal DOA.... even though he may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We are back to OK again as predicted starting Sunday. I don’t think the Tuesday event cuts but rather snugs up against western side of mountains along WV/Va border and we get yet another long mostly light-moderate overrunning event. Run that primary twds OH and then pop the secondary off the Delmarva and many could be back on the snowboard. Just gotta hope the primary doesn’t make it all the way to OH or we are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Happy hour bringing it with that 1040 High in a good spot and pressing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 GFS has a much better look for Tuesday next week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Has the primary in TN compared to Missouri. Up top is much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Pretty sweet. Classic CAD look right? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 12 hours of virga with snow at our doorstep though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Damn, that is almost our classic TN to OBX classic track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12 hours of virga with snow at our doorstep though lol. Ends up 4-8” of pure snow though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 HP retreats northward but it's at least 1040 or higher. Big change in 6 hours. Gotta love these models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12 hours of virga with snow at our doorstep though lol. Well, it's snow (not just virga) for some people. It's a solid run though. Not to state the obvious, but the potential looks very real. And for now I even like where I stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 56 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Run that primary twds OH and then pop the secondary off the Delmarva and many could be back on the snowboard. Just gotta hope the primary doesn’t make it all the way to OH or we are toast. It won’t make it past extreme southern KY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Something to track in February, better than last year!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 The GFS is weenietastic. And damn close to a major storm for the DC area. It is a beatdown for Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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