Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Surface is, the h5 progression looks more typical of a New England big storm so I’m hesitant to jump in. We can sometimes do good with that setup but I’m always looking for the north trend when I see that. No doubt. We've had a lot of these over the years. Sometimes we do very well and other times we get an hour of snow before the flip. We've seen some nice midrange trends this season with temps. The north trend has really shown up around d3 and shorter. Just need to hope for a nice cushion at d3. Your house is in the best spot so leave to worrying for people who live along and SE of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: Speaking of LOL's, the Fv3 is also promoting a quick hitting plowable snow/sleet event in Eastern PA tomorrow. Not sure which FV3 u r looking at but I see absolutely nothing of the sort even remotely close, sorry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I think frozen is on the table as well.. love the High placement on the Euro - pattern has been pointing to a possible mixing mess! Lets get another on board before I have any confidence.. as a matter of fact, I am not really sold on the idea, I just like the Euro's look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure which FV3 u r looking at but I see absolutely nothing of the sort even remotely close, sorry. It snows/sleets between panels so looking at estimated radar will not show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, poolz1 said: A slightly stronger 50/50 and blocking this run....would have thought the transfer and coastal development would have been even better than 0z. Lets get this to 120 hours....where the euro will lock onto a close to reality outcome...Nice to have something on the table tho.. Yeah, sounds good to me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I would be really cautious using that. I think the algorithm is way off and is counting sleet as snow and maybe even freezing rain/rain as snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I would be really cautious using that. I think the algorithm is way off and is counting sleet as snow and maybe even freezing rain/rain as snow as well. Not to mention I basically couldn't care less about what happens north of the mason dixon. No offense to those that contribute from that region. Just telling the truth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I would be really cautious using that. I think the algorithm is way off and is counting sleet as snow and maybe even freezing rain/rain as snow as well. It is almost certainly not all snow which is why I was putting snow/sleet. Doubt it is counting frz. Regardless I was using it as a caution to anyone taking the LR FV3 too seriously when it is showing this in the next 24-30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 The euro kuchera took away 5" of my snow since 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No doubt. We've had a lot of these over the years. Sometimes we do very well and other times we get an hour of snow before the flip. We've seen some nice midrange trends this season with temps. The north trend has really shown up around d3 and shorter. Just need to hope for a nice cushion at d3. Your house is in the best spot so leave to worrying for people who live along and SE of 95. It’s too soon to get into details. I still have a vested interest in 95 because in these setups if DC (or at least just nw of it) can get 6” there then I can really get crushed. If it ends up being an hour of snow to rain in DC I might get 3-4” up here but usually not more then that. There are exceptions but if I want really BIG totals I want at least the DC burbs to get a good thump too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s too soon to get into details. I still have a vested interest in 95 because in these setups if DC (or at least just nw of it) can get 6” there then I can really get crushed. If it ends up being an hour of snow to rain in DC I might get 3-4” up here but usually not more then that. There are exceptions but if I want really BIG totals I want at least the DC burbs to get a good thump too. 90% of the time you seem to get double what DCA gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's Kuchera. It's lower than 10:1 and is very reasonable considering the mixing issues. I like that the mixing is ZR. I love me some glaciers in Feb Thanks Bob. Much appreciated. I’d love to see those purples and pinks sink south. Need some stronger H with maybe a touch more further south L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Euro has shown snow 3 straight runs...if this was a midwest cutter...it would be a done deal but because its us...we need a few more days of consistent runs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 90% of the time you seem to get double what DCA gets. It can be more then that...there are rare times I’ve had 10” when DC was all rain. But that’s more typical in marginal surface temp situations. In these type storms typically if I want 10+ I need DC to at least get 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It can be more then that...there are rare times I’ve had 10” when DC was all rain. But that’s more typical in marginal surface temp situations. In these type storms typically if I want 10+ I need DC to at least get 3”. Yup. When I lived in PA it was even more impressive. You leave Gaithersburg and it's 33 or 34 with white rain...Mt. Airy is 32 with dicey roads, Westminster City was okay, then up Rt. 27 through Lineboro things just went to poo. By the time you cross into the PA it's 28 with a whiteout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I see the Euro took away half my snow. FAIL! This winter sucks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I see the Euro took away half my snow. FAIL! This winter sucks. Loved the surface didn’t like the h5 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It can be more then that...there are rare times I’ve had 10” when DC was all rain. But that’s more typical in marginal surface temp situations. In these type storms typically if I want 10+ I need DC to at least get 3”. You are in a great spot psu ! My location seems to suffer from the warmer ocean as you can see by the strange reduced totals the come in off of the East. For example, look at Dover, DE. what a big difference there. I myself would require a more Northerly component to do better. But , it will be somewhat fun to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Yep this is the real psu storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Loved the surface didn’t like the h5 on this run. Really didn't look too hard into the run. Just thought I would play at Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Tell Ji it looks like we also have the JMA in the EURO camp....Who can deny the EURO/JMA team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has shown snow 3 straight runs...if this was a midwest cutter...it would be a done deal but because its us...we need a few more days of consistent runs lol This will be an interesting event from a statistical standpoint. We've only missed on 1 legit chance this year. I suppose you could say the snow to rain deal in Jan was a miss but the track really sucked and we were never really in the game on that one imo. Does our more typical needing 3-4 chances for each event come back to haunt us or does it simply want to snow in the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Yep this is the real psu storm Agreed. This is not going to be a clean snowfall for I95 areas probably (hopefully) a thump to mix then either drizzle or dryslot type deal. N and W should do well if the general idea holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 EPS isn't really on board. It has a group of solutions that fit the op (including the control) but it's not nearly as good of a run as I thought it would be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS isn't really on board. It has a group of solutions that fit the op (including the control) but it's not nearly as good of a run as I thought it would be. what are the other solutions? Rain? suppressed? what were you expecting 7 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: what are the other solutions? Rain? suppressed? what were you expecting 7 days out? Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 @psuhoffman think you were waiting for this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS isn't really on board. It has a group of solutions that fit the op (including the control) but it's not nearly as good of a run as I thought it would be. This sounds more like it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Glancing over the EPS and there is a stronger signal at 500's for redevelopment of an amplifying coastal from a primary driving into the lakes. Now how that would possibly play out for our region is anyone's guess at this point. Would be dependent on how far west the primary is as it pulls up, how quickly we see the transfer and the location of where that transfer actually begins to occur. We did see a little bit of a drawback on the snowfall means and I have to question if that may be a result of the EPS favoring an initial transfer to just off our coast putting us in no man's land as the over running gets cut off and the coastal CCb has yet to be formed. But that is merely speculation because I didn't dive into the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Glancing over the EPS and there is a stronger signal at 500's for redevelopment of an amplifying coastal from a primary driving into the lakes. Now how that would possibly play out for our region is anyone's guess at this point. Would be dependent on how far west the primary is as it pulls up, how quickly we see the transfer and the location of where that transfer actually begins to occur. We did see a little bit of a drawback on the snowfall means and I have to question if that may be a result of the EPS favoring an initial transfer to just off our coast putting us in no man's land as the over running gets cut off and the coastal CCb has yet to be formed. But that is merely speculation because I didn't dive into the individual members. Thanks. Sounds like Boston will be all caught up to us by next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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