Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Care to elaborate on why you think this? Or are you just blowing smoke out your a**? It's a blend of the operational wishcast and snowenvy models. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 28 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon Nah NYC to BOS probably shutout remainder of winter but I bet the Mid Atl and Philly burbs continue to see snow. Atmospheric memory and all. Better hope the EPS are wrong for your sake bud cause if that SE ridge vanishes wont expect to hear from ya again til next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 27 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon Good...I'm in New York most of February and I could use some snow. We should hang out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 56 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What? LOL That's a -EPO, look at the trough under it north of Hawaii.. surface temperatures would be colder. This is going to show you how bad that model is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 32 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon I hope we all get it but from my models understanding snow gets as south as cape may 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 LOL...See, this is much better than Snowstorm56473's posts (or whatever his name was). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 34 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon Other way around pal. Seasonal snowfall tends to hit the same areas each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I hope we all get it but from my models understanding snow gets as south as cape may Thanks for the visit, but you should probably stay in your own playground for now! The guys here extensively look at models. You may be right, but saying your modelology makes you understand what will happen down here is not nearly as elaborate as what you read here. Now you should go back to your playground and let us concentrate on ours! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 38 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon LOL nice wishcast, buddy. I’m sure it sucked for you to have bare ground during this bitter cold snap while we spent last week in a winter wonderland. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 55 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon you may think what you like, but with out a convincing argument, you will have a hard time getting the rest of us on your bandwagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 22 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I hope we all get it but from my models understanding snow gets as south as cape may My model understanding is that Atlanta to Harlem gets 20-30" but the Bronx gets nothing... sharp cutoffs and all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 This day 8-9 event has some legs. It doesnt look like it will be a clean event with no 50/50 to keep the low south, however there is good antecedent cold and HP in a great spot. Could certainly see a thump to drizzle type event in the cards if everything works right for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 EURO has a nice wedge with heavy snow in the NW burbs, but very close to the cities at 192 hours. Not sure before that. This is the same event that the FV3 & GFS have...The GFS is warmer while the FV3 is colder (though who could have guessed that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 EURO has a nice wedge with heavy snow in the NW burbs, but very close to the cities at 192 hours. Not sure before that. This is the same event that the FV3 & GFS have...The GFS is warmer while the FV3 is colder (though who could have guessed that).I would forecast mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This day 8-9 event has some legs. It doesnt look like it will be a clean event with no 50/50 to keep the low south, however there is good antecedent cold and HP in a great spot. Could certainly see a thump to drizzle type event in the cards if everything works right for us. So does a 3 legged horse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 By Sunday we are back in winter business with one more arctic surge which will discuss later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Is it likely that the mean storm track in the upcoming gradient pattern will set up somewhere within the gray area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Tough luck, @psuhoffman - turns out you’ve had enough this year... It’s pretty rare for NYC to get hit in a gradient pattern and not me. Miller b is more common. Either way he is just an arse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I hope we all get it but from my models understanding snow gets as south as cape may You should let nws know you’ve perfected exact locations of the rain snow line at 30 day leads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Damn....looks like that guy was right. DC shutout and NYC to BOS crushed here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Huh, nice improvements on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 GFS looks like it's getting on the bandwagon. Two events lining up at least in next ten days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn....looks like that guy was right. DC shutout and NYC to BOS crushed here. Happy hour gfs is back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, peribonca said: GFS looks like it's getting on the bandwagon. Two events lining up at least in next ten days Just don't look at the fv3 for event #1. Same progression as gfs/euro except one notable difference... it forgot to include precip in our area. Eta: event 2 is money though so the most logical thing to do is hug the dumb older brother for event #1 and hug the smart new kid on the block for event #2. Would be our 3rd snow on snow event of the winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 GFS still does it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Just don't look at the fv3 for event #1. Same progression as gfs/euro except one notable difference... it forgot to include precip in our area. What did it just kinda break it apart when it got to our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just don't look at the fv3 for event #1. Same progression as gfs/euro except one notable difference... it forgot to include precip in our area. Where do you get the FV3 earlier than TT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Where do you get the FV3 earlier than TT? NCEP site. Don’t have link handy. Says eval in link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 I would gladly take a suppressed/sheared out system on the 11th if it means a larger, more southern storm on the 13th (op GFS is rain). Juicier than the 12z fv3 run and goes on to bomb out in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What did it just kinda break it apart when it got to our area? Weak shortwave. There's no value in picking apart any details. The only thing we should watch is the depth of the cold push and how fast (or slow) high pressure to the north escapes. Discrete shortwaves won't be resolved for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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