BristowWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Step away from the ledge. Fv3 agrees with the euro but colder on the 10-11th Can you throw me a rope? I slipped and fell into the well like Timmy did. And Lassie is humping the neighbors dog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 What's that "V" symbol next to my poster name? I know it's off topic, sorry Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Step away from the ledge. Fv3 agrees with the euro but colder on the 10-11th Where can I find this output for FV3? It looks like NCEP MAG, but I don't see FV3 listed there. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 When it comes to the GFS: Don't go chasin' model runs Just stick to the euro and the better ensemble runs... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: When it comes to the GFS: Don't go chasin' model runs Just stick to the euro and the better ensemble runs... Does that include the GEFS in the better category? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Where can I find this output for FV3? It looks like NCEP MAG, but I don't see FV3 listed there. Thanks! Here ya go. Anytime ncep has a beta model running it can be found here. Looks just like the main ncep model page but the url has "eval" in it. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 29 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Can you throw me a rope? I slipped and fell into the well like Timmy did. And Lassie is humping the neighbors dog. Totally forget ops at long range right now. We're in a transition phase next week with much uncertainty. I'm not sure many even realize that only minor adjustments can easily change the thurs-sat period into a mixed event. We may be dealing with zr thurs/fri even though it looks like easy rain. There's plentiful cold in canada. Even modest confluence north of us can put our area into CAD mode. I'm not expecting anything good or promising until next weekend at the earliest. The best thing to focus on is the upper level progression next week. That holds the key to everything that happens after it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Does that include the GEFS in the better category? Nope!! (Not till' it quits jumpin' around like a clown, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Step away from the ledge. Fv3 agrees with the euro but colder on the 10-11th Wish we could see how the fv3 handles the mjo. I’ll say this looping the gfs op h5 it finally starts to get right with blocking and the pattern day 15/16. Probably because of it’s 10 day loop through phase 6 again it’s a week behind the euro and fv3 at advancing the trough east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It is carving eastward d10-15. I'm mostly focused on the d8-12 window. Very active. Someone in the east is going to get a lot of snow in the next 2 weeks. I do feel confident about that. It's the opposite of a dry pattern and it's not a warm pattern either. I think SNE may make a violent comeback here before too long. Our area looks to be fine as well. There's a cluster that stripes NC/SoVA as well. Win, lose, or draw... this thread is going to be very busy over the coming week to 10 days and maybe beyond. Yes they will. And Rockville/DCA will be the Epicenter. Better stock up on shovels, ice melter, sand, and stout NOW! Because the infamous Leesburg/Rockville/HoCo-MoCo Deathband will obtain then pivot for days and days on end. You wont even be able to see your neighbors house across the damn street, its gonna snow so bad. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Does that include the GEFS in the better category? Brother, I think you need an intervention. Do what I did. In December 2009, based on the winter outlook, I purchased my first snow blower and while we had only three worthwhile events, it was enough for me since we had about 70 inches of snow. I purchased my second snow blower this year based on the stratosphere and troposphere and the MJO doing its thing plus the fact I moved and decided that shoveling snow was for losers (JEBMAN not withstanding, and of course he moved to Texas). I have the utmost confidence that we will score three to five more events this winter, starting with an overrunning event within ten days, my personal favorite. The MJO looks good on the EURO. That's all we're going to need (plus a little blocking). The rest of it is just fluff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, Wonderdog said: Brother, I think you need an intervention. Do what I did. In December 2009, based on the winter outlook, I purchased my first snow blower and while we had only three worthwhile events, it was enough for me since we had about 70 inches of snow. I purchased my second snow blower this year based on the stratosphere and troposphere and the MJO doing its thing plus the fact I moved and decided that shoveling snow was for losers (JEBMAN not withstanding, and of course he moved to Texas). I have the utmost confidence that we will score three to five more events this winter, starting with an overrunning event within ten days, my personal favorite. The MJO looks good on the EURO. That's all we're going to need (plus a little blocking). The rest of it is just fluff. Thanks Wonderdog. I needed that virtual slap. Maybe I spend too much time at work. When it does snow I miss it anyway. Give that snowblower a hug for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 18z gefs is a weenie run wrt snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: 18z gefs is a weenie run wrt snowfall when is the first chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 18z gefs is pretty interesting. Mean h5 is so-so but the run is loaded up with mixed events and snowstorms. Not a single member that doesn't drop frozen precip in the area from d7+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just taking a harder look at the GEFS in the extended and to say its continuity from run to run is rough would be an understatement. And anyone that throws up an op run at range as gospel should be 5 posted or banned. Think I will solely be following the EPS until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: 18z gefs is a weenie run wrt snowfall Yea, typical overdone with some of the mixed events but no doubt a big winter wx run anyways. One thing all ens agree on is a lot of precip is headed our way. Dry is not going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Brother, I think you need an intervention. Do what I did. In December 2009, based on the winter outlook, I purchased my first snow blower and while we had only three worthwhile events, it was enough for me since we had about 70 inches of snow. I purchased my second snow blower this year based on the stratosphere and troposphere and the MJO doing its thing plus the fact I moved and decided that shoveling snow was for losers (JEBMAN not withstanding, and of course he moved to Texas). I have the utmost confidence that we will score three to five more events this winter, starting with an overrunning event within ten days, my personal favorite. The MJO looks good on the EURO. That's all we're going to need (plus a little blocking). The rest of it is just fluff. I felt so confident about our snow chances this winter that I suggested to my dad that he get a snowblower. He is 73 and I didn’t want him having a heart attack from shoveling snow. He got it the day before our big January storm. He told me he would send me the bill if we don’t get more snow. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z gefs is a weenie run wrt snowfall LOL. Just finished saying I was going to ignore the GEFS for the time being because it is running rough. But after just looking over the snowfall means maybe I should be hugging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z gefs is a weenie run wrt snowfall Happy Hour just got a whole lot happier. We can do this. VERY promising signs appearing in the not-so-LR now. Just a matter of time honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Happy Hour just got a whole lot happier. We can do this. VERY promising signs appearing in the not-so-LR now. Just a matter of time honestly. Comparing 18z to 12z, it doesn't look much different to me (minus noise) on the snowfall mean, which seems to be all many here care to look at lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Comparing 18z to 12z, it doesn't look much different to me (minus noise) on the snowfall mean, which seems to be all many here care to look at lol. HL blocking setup is moving closer in time as opposed to farther away. That's my takeaway for today. Couldnt care less about a snowfall means tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Comparing 18z to 12z, it doesn't look much different to me (minus noise) on the snowfall mean, which seems to be all many here care to look at lol. Funny how it works. When I first started tracking the snowfall maps were the first thing I would look at. Now after all these years it is one of the last things and I quite often forget to look as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Funny how it works. When I first started tracking the snowfall maps were the first thing I would look at. Now after all these years it is one of the last things and I quite often forget to look as well. Normally I wouldn’t but right now there is a disconnect between the h5 and the temperatures due to a cold NAM profile, -epo, and the war finally caving allowing confluence. There have been lots of snowy runs with crappy h5 looks. I’m torn on that. Can’t ignore it but it wouldn’t take much adjustment to turn it into a true eastern ridge and cutters. Weaken the NAO and 50/50 just a bit and it goes to hell fast so I get how fragile the setup is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Normally I wouldn’t but right now there is a disconnect between the h5 and the temperatures due to a cold NAM profile, -epo, and the war finally caving allowing confluence. There have been lots of snowy runs with crappy h5 looks. I’m torn on that. Can’t ignore it but it wouldn’t take much adjustment to turn it into a true eastern ridge and cutters. Weaken the NAO and 50/50 just a bit and it goes to hell fast so I get how fragile the setup is. Knew the GEFS was having some issues the last few days but didn't realize how badly until I looked a little deeper into just now. A lot of conflicting signals. Until the GEFS starts resolving the conflicts within its members I really can't take anything it throws out seriously whether good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Cfs actually says we get the pac right too. Cfs mjo looks like euro so not shocking it has same pattern progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Comparing 18z to 12z, it doesn't look much different to me (minus noise) on the snowfall mean, which seems to be all many here care to look at lol. Well...DUH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 @Bob Chill 3 days ago I started closely keeping track of the nao to see if it started to get delayed again. The short answer is it has. But there is a caveat. 3/4 days who the gefs had the better mjo look. Racing through 7 to 8. At that time it also went to great blocking by ~day 14. As the gefs mjo changed it subsequently lost the good NAO look. It’s not pretty much gone with an ambiguous look there now. The euro was slower and always had the stall in 7 but now has a better progression after. So does the cfs. Both get good after day 10. So I’m chalking the gefs degradation up to its mjo issues. But this game is getting old fast. If the euro starts to delay or degrade the pattern at all now that it’s entering the magic day 10 window once again I’ll probably be quick to say it’s teasing us again the same as all winter. Speaking of all winter, today’s wave got me thinking. The snowfall has been centered about where we would expect in a modoki nino. Today’s storm targeted the mid Atlantic. Most have, temps just haven’t cooperated as often as we needed. The mjo is degrading the temp pattern but there is a nino ish background there. Heck if that storm mid December that tracked an upper low under us and dumped 3” of rain had some cold to work with we would be talking about how epic this winter is. I’m starting to come around to kind of a compromise on where this year is. The oni did get to .9 on the latest 3 month update. We got a nino but it’s been muted somewhat by other sst patterns in the pac and the mjo imo. All that might not matter but maybe if we can just get a few weeks where we time to the precip and some cold there is enough of the typical modoki nino background within this convoluted pattern that I could see is scoring a big hit or two late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 This two-temperate pattern over the Rockies and Midwest is a pattern change signal, completely, I think, Global (new wavelengths). (You guys probably already know this.) It will be interesting to see what ENSO does, but maybe it doesn't change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 @psuhoffman The AO is negative and looks to remain negative. Copious cold air is getting displaced out of the arctic on both sides of the globe into Russia, Europe, and North America so that definitely counts as a net positive. The bad thing is we look to be fighting the damn pna for at least a week. Lets assume the AO remains negative most or all of Feb (quite possible). Will the pna really be negative all Feb? It might but it's more typical to oscillate. If the NAO never gets right but the AO continues to be negative then we're getting more snow this month. Not discounting the importance of the nao. If we're going to get a big classic coastal we're going to need the real atlantic blocking. At least we have the AO in our favor. That should pay some dividends as long as it remains favorable. Good points about snow (and rain) patterns. No doubt that there's been plenty of juice to work with and it actually looks to increase this month. I've heard references to this winter being more like a Nina. Speaking from our area only, I disagree. But out west it hasn't been nino like. Only recently did the Sierras get blasted. The pac nw and northern rockies have had a solid year so far. This year is kinda some sort of enso hybrid depending on what area you're focusing on. There's a lot of uncertainty and mixed signals over the coming 1-2 weeks. I'm not sold either way with the nao but I do strongly believe we're getting more snow this month no matter what the NAO does. That's a far better feeling than things looking hopeless and hostile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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