jaydreb Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Why is everyone down? The eps looks really good Because our hopes and dreams rest with a non-existent creature (the fabled -NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, LP08 said: Scanning the EPS, I think after the 10th through the end of the month is very conductive to snow. One of the better looking patterns we would have had this year with lower heights finally showing up in the 50/50 region and a -NAO. Specific threats will most likely come down to the strength of the block but there is a lot to like going forward. Wanted to show the 6z GEFS around the same time. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snowfall mean is the best its looked in several runs. If you look deeper though, the members are basically split on the general look for our area beyond day 10. Some are torchy at the same time others would have us in the freezer. As has been discussed ad nauseam, our hopes and dreams going forward pretty much all hinge on a legit -NAO developing. Haven't looked into depth this morning but past runs I was also noticing a tendency to be split in regards to the PAC which I am sure was related to the issues the models have had with the MJO. IF in fact the models move towards a more favorable MJO progression we won't so dependent on the NAO to see us through. But we have seen how the PAC and the MJO have treated us this year so lets just shoot for the gold and hope that the -NAO in fact is the real deal this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snowfall mean is the best its looked in several runs. If you look deeper though, the members are basically split on the general look for our area beyond day 10. Some are torchy at the same time others would have us in the freezer. As has been discussed ad nauseam, our hopes and dreams going forward pretty much all hinge on a legit -NAO developing. Boy that pesky SOI still positive and still waiting for the real time to match the long range guidance. But, overall still on track, two steps forward , one step back with the modeling. I believe the part where HM spoke about the NAO also included the caveat that the models are not ready yet to show the outcomes he described. Granted you can see it coming, I think he means the evolution and duration as well. Also, it appears MJO phase 8 seems a good bet. That is a huge plus ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: A pig so ugly that I can find no way to throw a dress on it and put lip stick on it. it's not you it's them(odels) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't looked into depth this morning but past runs I was also noticing a tendency to be split in regards to the PAC which I am sure was related to the issues the models have had with the MJO. IF in fact the models move towards a more favorable MJO progression we won't so dependent on the NAO to see us through. But we have seen how the PAC and the MJO have treated us this year so lets just shoot for the gold and hope that the -NAO in fact is the real deal this time. At this point I am going on the assumption that the PAC will never get completely "right", at least not long term. If it does become more favorable and stable, then we would likely be fine with some weak/decent NA blocking, otherwise we are going to want a west-based, Davis Strait beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 27 minutes ago, frd said: Boy that pesky SOI still positive and still waiting for the real time to match the long range guidance. But, overall still on track, two steps forward , one step back with the modeling. I believe the part where HM spoke about the NAO also included the caveat that the models are not ready yet to show the outcomes he described. Granted you can see it coming, I think he means the evolution and duration as well. Also, it appears MJO phase 8 seems a good bet. That is a huge plus ! Was just looking at ens runs to see when the SOI might turn neg....looks like by D8/9 and then really neg after D12. I really think this will be the catalyst for a consistent eastern trough in the means. Def starting to get that phase 8ish look in the LR. Will be interesting to see the MJO forecast today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, Ji said: Why is everyone down? The eps looks really good It was because the gfs had one bad op run (which is enough for weenies) and then there were no posts in here for 6 hours so they assumed it was bad. Truth is I was asleep which is rare because I am an insomniac and rarely ever sleep more than 3 hours at a time, Showme never posts until morning, and you and bob took the night off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 55 minutes ago, Ji said: Why is everyone down? The eps looks really good If you think it's bad here, just look at the Philly forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was because the gfs had one bad op run (which is enough for weenies) and then there were no posts in here for 6 hours so they assumed it was bad. Truth is I was asleep which is rare because I am an insomniac and rarely ever sleep more than 3 hours at a time, Showme never posts until morning, and you and bob took the night off. We need an adult in here at all times or the weenies start to run amok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was asleep which is rare because I am an insomniac Ah, that explains your almost 24/7 posting. You are a machine !!! I can get up at 3 AM and still see a recent post you made, then at 6 AM it's showme time. Life is Good !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: If you think it's bad here, just look at the Philly forum lol They all need a canolli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Was just looking at ens runs to see when the SOI might turn neg....looks like by D8/9 and then really neg after D12. I really think this will be the catalyst for a consistent eastern trough in the means. Def starting to get that phase 8ish look in the LR. Will be interesting to see the MJO forecast today. It sure seems that way. And, I agree with you. Folks are liking that period near Feb 10th to 12th, but the real show might be more so Feb 20 if you base that off a SOI lag, better Pac and a retro Greenland block. I just want snow, light snow right now. Amazing what will stick at 14 degrees ! Pretty ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 From DT , This tends to follow what we all think. DO NOT GIVE UP ON THIS WINTER WXRISK.COM·FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2019 Even though it is likely to reach near 70° next week in much of Virginia and North Carolina -- especially on February 5 I am posting these maps to remind you to not give up on the winter. These maps are from the extended European weekly model which just came out on this Thursday evening. Each one of these images gives you the temperature anomaly on the LEFT and precipitation anomaly on the RIGHT. Obviously the darker the blue color the cold of the temperatures while the Green represents above normal precipitation for that time period. Generally in early and mid February in the Middle Atlantic region IF your SURFACE temperatures are below normal and you are in the Green area you have a GOOD chance to see snow or some sort of frozen precipitation. The other important point is that the long-range European weekly models jet stream maps are showing a prolonged overrunning event. Not a coastal nor'easter super storm but a situation where you have a stalled front over the Deep South and waves of LOW pressure move along the front dropping precipitation into the cold air. Of course the key point here is that the stalled front has to drop as far south as these models are indicating. if the stalled front were to stall say over Tennessee and Virginia then obviously the temperatures would be substantially different and the precipitation type would be substantially different. But right now this is a fairly bullish looking setup for the middle portions of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: Why is everyone down? The eps looks really good There was once an EPS extended prog that had me at 5 feet snow between Jan 17 and Feb 15. I'm shy of 1" so far so I am expecting snowmageddon over the next 2 weeks. It may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snowfall mean is the best its looked in several runs. If you look deeper though, the members are basically split on the general look for our area beyond day 10. Some are torchy at the same time others would have us in the freezer. As has been discussed ad nauseam, our hopes and dreams going forward pretty much all hinge on a legit -NAO developing. Same extended mix of 2 camps we've had all winter for the most part in the LR. And while many breakdown how the good looks can happen vs why the bad looks are showing up you know what has actually verified? Not surprisingly the middle of the road or a blend between the good and bad. Havent had an epic look nor a total fail AND areas that have been shutout past few seasons have cashed in with middle ground totals....not a shutout and not AN (yet) either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Maybe. Not going to go back and check but I believe there were times it was spot on with that feature this winter. Honestly, IF the northern Atlantic cooperates I think we are fine either way. In fact I would prefer to see some troughing in the deep southwest to hopefully bump up the southern stream. All I don't want to see is the NS getting sucked down into that pit. That happens with any of the NS pulses and that may not be something we are able to recover from for an extended period of time if at all. 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snowfall mean is the best its looked in several runs. If you look deeper though, the members are basically split on the general look for our area beyond day 10. Some are torchy at the same time others would have us in the freezer. As has been discussed ad nauseam, our hopes and dreams going forward pretty much all hinge on a legit -NAO developing. 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't looked into depth this morning but past runs I was also noticing a tendency to be split in regards to the PAC which I am sure was related to the issues the models have had with the MJO. IF in fact the models move towards a more favorable MJO progression we won't so dependent on the NAO to see us through. But we have seen how the PAC and the MJO have treated us this year so lets just shoot for the gold and hope that the -NAO in fact is the real deal this time. 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: At this point I am going on the assumption that the PAC will never get completely "right", at least not long term. If it does become more favorable and stable, then we would likely be fine with some weak/decent NA blocking, otherwise we are going to want a west-based, Davis Strait beast. Just to touch on these excellent points... I know this part has been beat to death but it continues to be true... there is a critical mass with the NAO blocking where it flips the pattern. If we get a strong enough and ideally located enough true nao block it changes the rest of the equation in our favor. That forces pieces of the trough in the west to cut under into the east, get stuck in the 50/50 location, and set up confluence to our north. At that point we actually want storms to try to cut. Send all that stj moisture up at us with cold in place and high pressure locked in to our north. Some of our best storms "tried" to cut west of us then got forced east under us by blocking. A trough axis too far west isn't as much a problem IF we have ideal blocking. BUT... it takes ideal blocking. Some ridging in a less that ideal spot and its not enough, the trough out west is able to pump the heights into the east and we get a full latitude ridge and cutter city. The guidance is still split on that but the last 24 hours more members seem to be coming to the "ideal blocking side". The blocking signal on the guidance is pretty good given there is some disagreement. If the divergent camp that lacks good blocking is wrong, as they come off the signal should increase and that is the sign we should look for in future runs to feel confident things are progressing. Last time it was a huge red flag imo that as the blocking progressed from day 15 to 14 to 13 and so on...the anomalies were actually getting weaker not stronger. That was the first sing things weren't going right imo. As for the exact EPO/PNA ridge/trough axis I don't think there is much indication the pac is going to change that drastically. The small changes in those seem to be more an effect of the changes on the Atlantic side not a cause. For instance, if you get a strong west based NAO block it will force the jet to cut under it, that will create an opening in western Canada for the EPO ridge to expand into a bit. But even the runs that slide the epo further east and help, the ridge is still centered off the west coast and its just extending east taking advantage of the opening created by the NAO. Take away that NAO and everything there shifts back to god awful. That is about where I am now. If we actually do get legit hard core NAO blocking...I actually am totally ok with the idea of pac energy crashing into the west. It pretty much eliminates the possibility of cold/dry. Yea it opens the door that things could try to cut but if we have a legit NAO/50/50 pattern I will take my chances with that over a cold dry suppressed look. If the pac throws 5 or 6 waves at us in a 2 week period with blocking I cannot imagine they all cut. Something will probably give us a flush hit in that scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 57 minutes ago, frd said: It sure seems that way. And, I agree with you. Folks are liking that period near Feb 10th to 12th, but the real show might be more so Feb 20 if you base that off a SOI lag, better Pac and a retro Greenland block. I just want snow, light snow right now. Amazing what will stick at 14 degrees ! Pretty ! I agree the core of a good pattern might be later...but we can and have snowed during a +SOI plenty of times so I wouldn't dismiss a specific threat just because it falls during an unfavorable SOI. SOI is just one factor and its more a factor in establishing a long term stable pattern not specific to one event. Without the SOI going negative it will be harder to maintain a consistent trough axis in the east though. Other factors can override it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It was because the gfs had one bad op run (which is enough for weenies) and then there were no posts in here for 6 hours so they assumed it was bad. Truth is I was asleep which is rare because I am an insomniac and rarely ever sleep more than 3 hours at a time, Showme never posts until morning, and you and bob took the night off. It looked like some people outside our area posted some negative comments about overnight models going downhill. But I figured it was a GFS op and just ignored it and moved on. Snow today should give people some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: It looked like some people outside our area posted some negative comments about overnight models going downhill. But I figured it was a GFS op and just ignored it and moved on. Snow today should give people some hope. Guilty as charged guys. It was me. Apologies. Been watching the gfs ops runs for the last few days. It had some decent trends but went out of its mind warm on the 0z last night. Seems to have come back (a little) to a better look on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Psu covered everything so not much to add other than don't expect a flip on a dime anytime soon. The first 7-10 days of Feb aren't looking friendly for snow chances which leaves us discussing d10+ for the time being. Like always, things will be jumpy and muddy every day. I like what I see. Jan was a decent wintry month in the mid atlantic. Multiple snow events and some pretty solid cold at times. But it did have frustrating and boring periods. I expect Feb to be the same. Frustrating and boring at times but will have wintry periods and multiple snow events is my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Psu covered everything so not much to add other than don't expect a flip on a dime anytime soon. The first 7-10 days of Feb aren't looking friendly for snow chances which leaves us discussing d10+ for the time being. Like always, things will be jumpy and muddy every day. I like what I see. Jan was a decent wintry month in the mid atlantic. Multiple snow events and some pretty solid cold at times. But it did have frustrating and boring periods. I expect Feb to be the same. Frustrating and boring at times but will have wintry periods and multiple snow events is my best guess. it was the 3rd snowiest january this century for IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: it was the 3rd snowiest january this century for IAD Can't speak for everyone's yard but this January was a very legit winter month by my standards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Boundary sets up just a touch too north next weekend on 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I must remain pessimistic! In all reality, I was speaking of the GFS not showing enough promise for a lot of weenie posts. This did not reflect my feelings.. but in general, as excited as we are in the long run, when things look good, we seem to veer from the look. Ironically, when things have looked bad we have done better! I think the 10+ inches was when we thought the pattern was not yet ready to flip good. So it is typical odd winter where we luck into the better events. Honestly, Tuesday's front was a nice surprise! Today is great! My trust in the long range holding great is not strong this year because it has been a big let down! So, for now, things look interesting in the longer range.. and winter is not leaving, but I remain pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can't speak for everyone's yard but this January was a very legit winter month by my standards. At the beginning of January, we all thought we wouldn't really see anything until February. I know that was true for some people, but all in all, we fared fairly well for January. Especially for that official reading at National airport during our 8-12" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Euro weeklies MJO forecast is tasty. Perfect for a February beat down: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Boundary sets up just a touch too north next weekend on 12z GFS. Yes, but a fairly strong CAD signature this far out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Nice GFS op run, first a wave for the northern 1/2 and then a wave for the southern 1/2 of the forum. Everyone gets some love through day 11. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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