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January 29, 2019 Snow Event and January 30th Snow Squall Discussion and Obs


ChescoWx
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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wxsim says 3-5" with periods of heavy snow....NAMs say intermittent snow showers c to not even an inch up there. Going to be interesting to see if the wxsim can outdo the pro guidance. Radar looks meh. Gl.

Remember it will come down to reality next forecast as it is simply a blend of the NAM/GFS - so go with the pro guidance

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I am siding with the GFS on this one.  It is clear from the radar returns and reports from the surface that the NAMs depiction of moisture holding off until after 20Z in SEPA is incorrect and that the GFS seems to have much better hold on the current the current conditions.  If moisture held off as long as depicted on the NAM I could see the surface temps rising to the point where ptype would be an issue here.  Just not seeing that right now and based on the slug of moisture coming from the SW right now the NAMs output is suspect to say the least.  Time will tell......

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