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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, wind gusts to 50 mph look likely with the potential for 60 mph or higher. This is our first 75 mb pressure gradient of 2019. 

60 kts at the top of the mixed layer sunday night. 

image.thumb.png.c93fe0bd9decb31f89b9f7e74613564c.png

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Explosive warmth maybe....

What warmth ?

Seriously , do you look at the models ?  The pattern looks good as we head into March with the pna ridge and the favorable mjo.

Keep thinking winter is over. Head over to the SNE thread and see what they think.

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11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Welp. Just saw some bulbs beginning to sprout walking the dog.... thoughts on the day 11 fantasy 48 hour KU on the fv3? :lol:

Some crocuses are already in bloom in the region.

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38 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What warmth ?

Seriously , do you look at the models ?  The pattern looks good as we head into March with the pna ridge and the favorable mjo.

Keep thinking winter is over. Head over to the SNE thread and see what they think.

they've busted just as much as every one else this horrid winter....sure it might get cold for a week, big deal....if it doesnt snow no one cares.

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This

49 minutes ago, dWave said:

If something credible comes along everyone will get sucked back in though.

This is how I still know I haven't shaken my instinctive love of snow.  Though I'm no different now than when I was a kid when we're talking snow in December or January, this time of year, increasingly I am honestly just fine with it starting to warm up.  But.. I still peek in here every few days to see if the last update has been within the last 3 minutes - a sure sign that something's brewing.  And if we're talking about anything over 6 inches, then I'm right back to rooting hard for snow.  But enough about me.

 

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While it gets colder during the first week of March with the -EPO block, the Pacific Jet looks relentless. Need to see some improvement there if we want to avoid cold and dry.

 

75874794-9806-413C-963A-C4D42D14CD21.thumb.png.66a10bed7099a71aa7a1d7e9d3c4c96e.png

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2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I couldn't disagree more.  If you like snow, you want it to snow all winter long.  We're only on this planet so long and every snowfall is a good one that should be appreciated.  I don't care at all about how quickly it melts - I love to track it and watch it snow and enjoy it while it's falling.  I also have followed some bad teams in my day (I'm a Rutgers fan and 30+ year season ticket holder in football and hoops, so I know from failure, lol), but I always want them to win, even if they've done badly for awhile.  It's called loyalty.  

Don't know what you a re disagreeing with, but I always pick snow. The point I was making was going into the winter it was like having a stacked team ready for a championship. It just goes to show you why actually playing the season matters. This one we can chalk it up to a loss and start looking at the signals for next winter when the time comes. Let's just hope that Mother Nature chooses the correct team next year for us. But hey, seems like whoever drafted for Virginia, DC, and norther NY and New England got a great team this year. As for the loyalty part, I can certainly understand being loyal to your team, but blind loyalty can sometimes allow management to get away with murder. Without getting to far off topic, Dolan isn't going to change the Knicks if he sells out every game and has the leagues most valuable team. Sometimes you can still be loyal but follow from a distance and not spend as much time on it. I'm enjoying being a new dad than watching every Rangers game this year, since they most likely won't make the playoffs. I still want them to win every game and will still pick up a game or two, but I won't go out of my way to make time for it. 

 

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

It's a pretty flimsy analogy. Watching a losing team takes time, money, effort, and intention; winter will continue to happen, or not, with zero regard for whether you've declared your participation over. I mean, sure, you could stop looking at the models and posting in winter threads, but if you're here announcing your dissatisfaction on a daily basis, it would seem you're just as invested as ever. The philosophizing just gets brutal after a while... we love snow so much that we hope it doesn't snow any more so we can be angry about not getting enough snow?

I don't know if the analogy is flimsy. Weather is a lot like sports teams. We make predictions about what will happen and then watch. Forecasting also takes time, effort, and intention (many times money too). Whether or not you watch sports, they too will also happen much like the weather. And judging by the drastic slow down in board postings this winter, I'd be willing to bet many people have not been paying as much attention anymore. Me? I love all weather, the more extreme the better. And as I pointed out above, you don't have to travel far to reach epic snows. Rent a car, take a train, Uber, etc. I'm still hoping to get up to Killington a few times this year, but it is hard with a wife that has a new job at a hospital and a 5 month old. The philosophizing about winter is just brutal because it hasn't worked out in our favor, but this year had a lot of potential.

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While it gets colder during the first week of March with the -EPO block, the Pacific Jet looks relentless. Need to see some improvement there if we want to avoid cold and dry.

 

75874794-9806-413C-963A-C4D42D14CD21.thumb.png.66a10bed7099a71aa7a1d7e9d3c4c96e.png

PAC jet has been an absolute monster this winter. Against all logic though, I continue to hold out hope the pieces might still just fall into place.

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On 2/20/2019 at 6:44 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

When you look at the small area of Central Park and forget about the 50 mile or so radius around it that this sub forum entails than yes it's true there have been no double digit snowfalls after February 28 since the March 1993 storm. Yet Central Park had 8.4 inches on the first day of spring last year, damn close and 21 days after March first.

I live 40 miles due north of Central Park and just in the last 6 years alone I've had three storms between 16-24 inches in March. March 7-8 2013 16.1 inches, March 14, 2017 20.8 inches, and March 7, 2018 24.2 inches. Expand the horizon a few miles past Central Park and 12-18 inch storm in this area in March are pretty common. And yes I say that knowing you live in a snow hole in Colonia but this too may change for you someday.

It's not a coincidence though- I firmly believe that urban heat island enhances the sun angle problem.  Neither LGA nor JFK has had any double digit snowfalls in March since 1993 either and I haven't had them in my town either.  So this is an urban area issue, once you get further away from the city then it's less of an issue.  I live in SW Nassau County but it's fairly well urbanized so we have the same problem.  Go east or north of here (as well as west of the city) by a fair amount and you wont have these issues.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Welp. Just saw some bulbs beginning to sprout walking the dog.... thoughts on the day 11 fantasy 48 hour KU on the fv3? :lol:

I noticed a few last weekend. It hasn’t even been that warm lol.

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54 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don't know what you a re disagreeing with, but I always pick snow. The point I was making was going into the winter it was like having a stacked team ready for a championship. It just goes to show you why actually playing the season matters. This one we can chalk it up to a loss and start looking at the signals for next winter when the time comes. Let's just hope that Mother Nature chooses the correct team next year for us. But hey, seems like whoever drafted for Virginia, DC, and norther NY and New England got a great team this year. As for the loyalty part, I can certainly understand being loyal to your team, but blind loyalty can sometimes allow management to get away with murder. Without getting to far off topic, Dolan isn't going to change the Knicks if he sells out every game and has the leagues most valuable team. Sometimes you can still be loyal but follow from a distance and not spend as much time on it. I'm enjoying being a new dad than watching every Rangers game this year, since they most likely won't make the playoffs. I still want them to win every game and will still pick up a game or two, but I won't go out of my way to make time for it. 

 

I don't know if the analogy is flimsy. Weather is a lot like sports teams. We make predictions about what will happen and then watch. Forecasting also takes time, effort, and intention (many times money too). Whether or not you watch sports, they too will also happen much like the weather. And judging by the drastic slow down in board postings this winter, I'd be willing to bet many people have not been paying as much attention anymore. Me? I love all weather, the more extreme the better. And as I pointed out above, you don't have to travel far to reach epic snows. Rent a car, take a train, Uber, etc. I'm still hoping to get up to Killington a few times this year, but it is hard with a wife that has a new job at a hospital and a 5 month old. The philosophizing about winter is just brutal because it hasn't worked out in our favor, but this year had a lot of potential.

Cant stand Dolan.  He messes up everything he owns, another reason not to allow one bumbling billionaire to own more than one thing.....

 

The Rangers should have followed the Islanders- they got a Stanley Cup winning coach and an amazing GM who knows how to build a dynasty in the region.

 

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Tomorrow officially marks the unofficial end to significant accumulating snows on the coastal plain. Still about two weeks to go for interior sections. This is based on long term climo with considerations for anomalies such as what occurred in March 2918.

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I really enjoyed today's sun and mild temps.  Looking forward to warmer and brighter days ahead.  That being said, I am still rooting for a big snow event for everyone hopefully on a weekend. 

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28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not a coincidence though- I firmly believe that urban heat island enhances the sun angle problem.  Neither LGA nor JFK has had any double digit snowfalls in March since 1993 either and I haven't had them in my town either.  So this is an urban area issue, once you get further away from the city than it's less of an issue.  I live in SW Nassau County but it's fairly well urbanized so we have the same problem.  Go east or north of here (as well as west of the city) by a fair amount and you wont have these issues.

 

 

it's been 25 years since NYC had a 10" snowstorm in March...1993 was the last time that happened...before that it was 33 years...

1888.....21.0".....12th-14th...

1896.....10.0".....2nd...

1896.....12.0".....15th-16th...

1914.....14.5".....1st-2nd...

1941.....18.1".....7th-8th...

1956.....11.6".....18th-19th...

1958.....11.8".....20th-21st...

1960.....14.5".....3rd-4th...

1993.....10.6".....12th-14th...

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Tomorrow officially marks the unofficial end to significant accumulating snows on the coastal plain. Still about two weeks to go for interior sections. This is based on long term climo with considerations for anomalies such as what occurred in March 2918.

You are from the future?! Do tell me what happened in March 2918. What is the planet like? Just joking I know you mean last year. 

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35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not a coincidence though- I firmly believe that urban heat island enhances the sun angle problem.  Neither LGA nor JFK has had any double digit snowfalls in March since 1993 either and I haven't had them in my town either.  So this is an urban area issue, once you get further away from the city then it's less of an issue.  I live in SW Nassau County but it's fairly well urbanized so we have the same problem.  Go east or north of here (as well as west of the city) by a fair amount and you wont have these issues.

 

 

Of course the city makes the sun angle a bigger problem. It is all concrete and blacktop. This is the time of year where even when it is cold a black jacket will feel much warmer because of the strengthening sun. Once you exit the solar minimum you notice it pretty quickly. Also why how in the fall it can be so much cooler in the northern burbs. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not a coincidence though- I firmly believe that urban heat island enhances the sun angle problem.  Neither LGA nor JFK has had any double digit snowfalls in March since 1993 either and I haven't had them in my town either.  So this is an urban area issue, once you get further away from the city then it's less of an issue.  I live in SW Nassau County but it's fairly well urbanized so we have the same problem.  Go east or north of here (as well as west of the city) by a fair amount and you wont have these issues.

 

 

It could also be unlucky storm tracks near NYC in March. The first prime March snowstorm track has been the coastal hugger like March 2017 that favored areas NW of NYC. The 2nd main track like last March was just wide of the benchmark which favored Suffolk. So in both cases NYC misses the March jackpot. You can also see elements of this in other years like March 2001, 2009, and later with April 2003. 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could also be unlucky storm tracks near NYC in March. The first prime March snowstorm track has been the coastal hugger like March 2017 that favored areas NW of NYC. The 2nd main track like last March was just wide of the benchmark which favored Suffolk. So in both cases NYC misses the March jackpot. You can also see elements of this in other years like March 2001, 2009, and later with April 2003. 

Do you think the snow needs to be really heavy to stick in urban areas in March and April?  We actually saw an element of that with the last system, the roads were wet and slushy even though it was snowing and in the 20s.

 

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43 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Tomorrow officially marks the unofficial end to significant accumulating snows on the coastal plain. Still about two weeks to go for interior sections. This is based on long term climo with considerations for anomalies such as what occurred in March 2918.

I think we can extend it to the end of the month going by what happened in February 2010.

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33 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Of course the city makes the sun angle a bigger problem. It is all concrete and blacktop. This is the time of year where even when it is cold a black jacket will feel much warmer because of the strengthening sun. Once you exit the solar minimum you notice it pretty quickly. Also why how in the fall it can be so much cooler in the northern burbs. 

Saw this with the last snow event which was wet slush on the roads even though it was snowing and in the 20s!

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think the snow needs to be really heavy to stick in urban areas in March and April?  We actually saw an element of that with the last system, the roads were wet and slushy even though it was snowing and in the 20s.

 

Yeah, it helps. Seems like NYC has been too far west for the best rates and amounts throughout the season. Dec 09, Feb 13, Jan 15, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18..,etc. 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it helps. Seems like NYC has been too far west for the best rates and amounts throughout the season. Dec 09, Feb 13, Jan 15, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18..,etc. 

March 2015 was actually the best March that I remember, it followed the amazing February that was the best combo of cold and snow that I had ever seen, even eclipsing January 2004.

 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it helps. Seems like NYC has been too far west for the best rates and amounts throughout the season. Dec 09, Feb 13, Jan 15, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18..,etc. 

nyc would have gotten 12+ with a better airmass in place on march 7th

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12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

nyc would have gotten 12+ with a better airmass in place on march 7th

Last March was probably the maximum possible snowfall at a place like ISP for so little cold.

2018....31.9....38.0....-1.3

1967....23.3.....32.5...-6.8

2015....19.7.....35.2....-4.1

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Tomorrow officially marks the unofficial end to significant accumulating snows on the coastal plain. Still about two weeks to go for interior sections. This is based on long term climo with considerations for anomalies such as what occurred in March 2918.

Damn , well see you guys next winter then!

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Tomorrow officially marks the unofficial end to significant accumulating snows on the coastal plain. Still about two weeks to go for interior sections. This is based on long term climo with considerations for anomalies such as what occurred in March 2918.

I know "interior" still mostly means inside of 287, but I've had accumulating snow post-March 7 (two weeks from today) every year this decade. March was actually my snowiest month of the last three winters, which is a little strange.

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Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February.

There have been just 3 snowstorms of 4" or more in Boston during February when the ENSO 1+2 anomaly was > 0.00°C and the ENSO 3.4 anomaly ranged from 0.00°C to 0.69°C since 1950. In New York City, there was just one such storm and in Philadelphia there were two. The biggest snowstorms during such ENSO conditions were as follows: Boston: 9.7"; New York City: 4.3"; and, Philadelphia: 4.7". Those three figures might represent the upper bound of what's possible in terms of accumulations in the current pattern unless there is strong modeling consensus for a larger snowfall. During the most recent storm, all three cities had accumulations that fell short of 4.0".

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -27.27 today. That is the 11th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 11 consecutive days was April 12-23, 2016.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.486. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.005. Should the AO average +0.068 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

On February 20, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.156 (RMM). The amplitude rose from the February 19-adjusted figure of 1.833. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8 before moving slowly into Phase 1 during the closing week of February. Late February high amplitude MJO Phase 8 cases have not always led to a snowy March. March 1978 saw 6.8" snow fall in New York City. March 1988 saw no measurable snowfall in New York City.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

Another storm could bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East this weekend. Afterward, the pattern could evolve toward a colder one. Unlike with February when neutral-warm to very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive to significant snows in the Middle Atlantic region, the frequency of such snowfalls during such ENSO conditions increases in March courtesy of shortening wave lengths. Since 1950, 43% of New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during March 1-15 occurred with an AO+/PNA- pattern and 27% occurred with an AO-/PNA+ pattern.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

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2 hours ago, romba said:

PAC jet has been an absolute monster this winter. Against all logic though, I continue to hold out hope the pieces might still just fall into place.

You know the PAC Jet is as bad as it can be when NYC can’t get more than 5” during DJF.

1 1997-1998 0.5 0
2 1918-1919 1.1 0
3 1972-1973 2.6 0
4 1931-1932 2.7 0
5 1991-1992 3.2 0
6 2001-2002 3.5 0
7 2018-2019 3.6 9
8 2011-2012 4.5 0
9 1989-1990 5.0 0
       
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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Cant stand Dolan.  He messes up everything he owns, another reason not to allow one bumbling billionaire to own more than one thing.....

 

The Rangers should have followed the Islanders- they got a Stanley Cup winning coach and an amazing GM who knows how to build a dynasty in the region.

 

Yup, and they have won exactly 1 playoff series in a quarter century. Not the team I want the rangers to copy, but thanks. 

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