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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Today's storm proved consistent with historic experience.

Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The SOI was -38.91 today. That is the 10th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 10 consecutive days was April 12-23, 2016.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.112. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.035. Should the AO average +0.371 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001.

On February 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.839 (RMM). The amplitude rose from the February 18-adjusted figure of 1.550. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8 before moving slowly into Phase 1 during the closing week of February.

The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.

Another storm could bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East this weekend. Afterward, the pattern could evolve toward a colder one. Unlike with February when neutral-warm to very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive to significant snows in the Middle Atlantic region, the frequency of such snowfalls during such ENSO conditions increases in March courtesy of shortening wave lengths.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

2/21-2/28 looks mild and not favorable at all for snow. 3/1-3/7 looks cold but the models have the pattern breaking down to mild again right after that week. PNA goes negative again towards mid month and zonal flow takes over again with the PAC jet once again blasting in. If something is going to happen snow wise, it needs to be that week, and par for the course this winter, even though it gets cold 3/1-3/7, no -NAO block, unlike last March, we couldn’t buy a -NAO this entire winter

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Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 6degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.9[36.4].      Feb. should end at +3.1[38.0].

The whole meteorological winter should end near +2.0.   JB had -1 for us.  1SD is 2.4degs.

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6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

2/21-2/28 looks mild and not favorable for snow. 3/1-3/7 looks cold but the models have the pattern breaking down to mild again right after that week. PNA goes negative again towards mid month and zonal flow takes over again with the PAC jet once again blasting in. If something is going to happen snow wise, it needs to be that week, and par for the course this winter, even though it gets cold 3/1-3/7, no -NAO block, unlike last March, we couldn’t buy a -NAO this entire winter

That could well be the case. Not only does the guidance break down the pattern shortly afterward, the EPS weeklies go into a prolonged warm pattern beginning a few days before the 10th. I'm referencing the historical data to point out that the upcoming March very likely won't resemble last March (into April) where winter hung on for a prolonged period of time.

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Added an ensemble graphic for March 1-8 (couldn't find a March thread). It has a 80-90% probability of colder than normal here and thats pretty good for an ensemble.  One comment on NAO...  I think It's timing not an overall week or two duration -NAO.  The storm this weekend with its near 50 MPH northwest winds late Sunday-Monday also ushers in subnormal cold the 26th through ~ 7th of March (as others have noted).  It also possibly sets up a fast moving light-moderate snow event between I80-I90 next Wednesday (~27th) with decent transitory -NAO (Ie briefing blocking to our northeast, as I see it).

Screen Shot 2019-02-21 at 5.07.43 AM.png

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time this year that the CPC analogs had 1996 at the top of the list. So perhaps we get a shot at some accumulating snow like we did the first week of March 1996 with the cold -EPO pattern.

 

90A4E03D-5B85-4D59-82C4-668B8F06BD77.gif.fedcd4d9aa06262e2f6ce81071c5e4cd.gif

 

LOL, do I see a 3/13/93 on that list?

I also see 2 dates from 2002...

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14 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Not to take away from any wintry weather we are currently getting but the storm this weekend could pack a punch. The NWS is highlighting the chance of heavy rain Saturday night/Sunday with strong to possibly damaging winds (damaging per Mt.Holly) Sunday but especially on Monday.

Yeah, wind gusts to 50 mph look likely with the potential for 60 mph or higher. This is our first 75 mb pressure gradient of 2019. 

40F27EAA-4B59-4622-BF1A-721CC1F8A778.thumb.png.079eb136ff87690c69286a9081c70fc5.png

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, wind gusts to 50 mph look likely with the potential for 60 mph or higher. This is our first 75 mb pressure gradient of 2019. 

40F27EAA-4B59-4622-BF1A-721CC1F8A778.thumb.png.079eb136ff87690c69286a9081c70fc5.png

Perfect time for the sailing season to begin around here!

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While February 2019 is nowhere near as warm as the record-warm February of last year in Central Park, it is poised to finish 2° or more above normal.

Sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance provides the following implied probabilities:

Warmer than normal: 92%
2° or more above normal: 58%
3° or more above normal: 34%

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That could well be the case. Not only does the guidance break down the pattern shortly afterward, the EPS weeklies go into a prolonged warm pattern beginning a few days before the 10th. I'm referencing the historical data to point out that the upcoming March very likely won't resemble last March (into April) where winter hung on for a prolonged period of time.

..if that's the case..so be it..let this disappointing winter end and lets move onto spring.

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3 minutes ago, tim said:

..if that's the case..so be it..let this disappointing winter end and lets move onto spring.

There's still a window of opportunity. Overall, it has been a really disappointing winter.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's still a window of opportunity. Overall, it has been a really disappointing winter.

The window is during the 1st week of March. Spring should be here by the middle of the month.

NYC will end up below average in the snowfall department unless a March 2001 redux( favors our area now ) happens which is slim.

 

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The window is during the 1st week of March. Spring should be here by the middle of the month.

NYC will end up below average in the snowfall department unless a March 2001 redux( favors our area now ) happens which is slim.

 

But you know what 88 and others,,,,,,,,,IF that is the case and we are looking to salvage this winter, I say screw that and let this winter be known for what it was for Snow luvers = a bust. At this point as much as I love snow I don't want this year to glossed over and moved out of the top 10 worst. Who wants snow that is here today and gone tomorrow in March ? I love snow as much as anyone and IF we do get a storm so be it but I am pretty much done with all the hype and expectation but more so the DISAPPOINTMENT that this winter brought. To paraphrase what I read from someone else this winter " was like rooting for your favorite sports team that came into the season with so many expectations but failed miserably and had a losing record "

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31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The window is during the 1st week of March. Spring should be here by the middle of the month.

NYC will end up below average in the snowfall department unless a March 2001 redux( favors our area now ) happens which is slim.

 

March 2001 had 3.8 inches of snow in Central Park... That won't get us to normal. Even last year's 11.6 won't get us to normal. We would have to have a March 2015 with 18.6 inches to help us. 

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15 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

But you know what 88 and others,,,,,,,,,IF that is the case and we are looking to salvage this winter, I say screw that and let this winter be known for what it was for Snow luvers = a bust. At this point as much as I love snow I don't want this year to glossed over and moved out of the top 10 worst. Who wants snow that is here today and gone tomorrow in March ? I love snow as much as anyone and IF we do get a storm so be it but I am pretty much done with all the hype and expectation but more so the DISAPPOINTMENT that this winter brought. To paraphrase what I read from someone else this winter " was like rooting for your favorite sports team that came into the season with so many expectations but failed miserably and had a losing record "

I love this analogy. This winter was like the sports team that was undefeated for the first month of the season and then lost every game for a month and a half before winning a few games towards the end of the season. Then again there would still be diehard fans in that stadium to watch the last place team skate off the ice for the final time of the year cheering nonetheless. While I love sports, if my team is terrible (i.e. the Rangers this year), I still follow them, but definitely do not make time to watch every game. Life is short, spend it on things that can truly impact your life. For the life of me, I cannot understand how anyone cheers for the Knicks, like ever. Life is too short to watch a chronically failing team do nothing.

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Just now, bluewave said:

At this point, just getting out of the top 10 lowest seems like a reachable goal. NYC just needs 1.4 to pull that off.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/snowiestwintersmonths.pdf

Yes, but I was replying to getting us to normal. I don't think this year will end up being in the bottom 10 for snowfall, but hey, stranger things have happened this year. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The window is during the 1st week of March. Spring should be here by the middle of the month.

NYC will end up below average in the snowfall department unless a March 2001 redux( favors our area now ) happens which is slim.

 

You had to bring up that date again? The ultimate weenie storm that never materialized. Give me a 3 footer and I wouldn't care if we torch into the 80's after that.

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8 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

You had to bring up that date again? The ultimate weenie storm that never materialized. Give me a 3 footer and I wouldn't care if we torch into the 80's after that.

2-3 feet predicted here

5 inches only fell

At least schools were closed lol

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the best March's with 4"+ snowfalls...

year....snow.....4"+ snowfalls

1956...21.1"...11.6"...6.5"...

1958...15.9"...11.8"...4.1"...

1959.....6.7".....5.5"...

1960...18.5"...14.5"...

1964.....6.0".....4.9"...

1967...17.4".....9.8"...

1968.....6.1".....6.6"...2/29 to 3/1... 5.5" 3/1

1970.....4.0".....4.0"...

1976.....4.4".....4.2"...

1978.....6.8".....5.0"...

1980.....4.6".....4.6"...

1981.....8.6".....8.6"...

1984...11.9".....6.9"...

1992.....9.4".....6.2"...

1993...11.9"...10.2"...

1994.....8.1".....5.0"...

1996...13.2".....4.6".....4.5".....4.1"...

1999.....4.5".....4.5"...

2004.....4.8".....4.0"...

2005.....6.9".....7.7"...2/28 to 3/1 ... 2.9" 3/1

2007.....5.5".....5.5"...

2009.....8.3".....8.3"...

2013.....7.4".....4.0"

2015...18.6".....4.8".....7.5".....4.5"

2017.....9.7".....7.6"

2018...11.6".....8.4"

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18 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

You had to bring up that date again? The ultimate weenie storm that never materialized. Give me a 3 footer and I wouldn't care if we torch into the 80's after that.

It did materialize. Just too late for our area. Eastern LI did well

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4 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

But you know what 88 and others,,,,,,,,,IF that is the case and we are looking to salvage this winter, I say screw that and let this winter be known for what it was for Snow luvers = a bust. At this point as much as I love snow I don't want this year to glossed over and moved out of the top 10 worst. Who wants snow that is here today and gone tomorrow in March ? I love snow as much as anyone and IF we do get a storm so be it but I am pretty much done with all the hype and expectation but more so the DISAPPOINTMENT that this winter brought. To paraphrase what I read from someone else this winter " was like rooting for your favorite sports team that came into the season with so many expectations but failed miserably and had a losing record "

 

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I love this analogy. This winter was like the sports team that was undefeated for the first month of the season and then lost every game for a month and a half before winning a few games towards the end of the season. Then again there would still be diehard fans in that stadium to watch the last place team skate off the ice for the final time of the year cheering nonetheless. While I love sports, if my team is terrible (i.e. the Rangers this year), I still follow them, but definitely do not make time to watch every game. Life is short, spend it on things that can truly impact your life. For the life of me, I cannot understand how anyone cheers for the Knicks, like ever. Life is too short to watch a chronically failing team do nothing.

I couldn't disagree more.  If you like snow, you want it to snow all winter long.  We're only on this planet so long and every snowfall is a good one that should be appreciated.  I don't care at all about how quickly it melts - I love to track it and watch it snow and enjoy it while it's falling.  I also have followed some bad teams in my day (I'm a Rutgers fan and 30+ year season ticket holder in football and hoops, so I know from failure, lol), but I always want them to win, even if they've done badly for awhile.  It's called loyalty.  

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13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

I couldn't disagree more.  If you like snow, you want it to snow all winter long.  We're only on this planet so long and every snowfall is a good one that should be appreciated.  I don't care at all about how quickly it melts - I love to track it and watch it snow and enjoy it while it's falling.  I also have followed some bad teams in my day (I'm a Rutgers fan and 30+ year season ticket holder in football and hoops, so I know from failure, lol), but I always want them to win, even if they've done badly for awhile.  It's called loyalty.  

+1

The only time I want my team to lose is for draft pick positioning.  Since I'm not aware of any draft for next winter, I'm rooting for snow. 

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4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I love this analogy. This winter was like the sports team that was undefeated for the first month of the season and then lost every game for a month and a half before winning a few games towards the end of the season. Then again there would still be diehard fans in that stadium to watch the last place team skate off the ice for the final time of the year cheering nonetheless. While I love sports, if my team is terrible (i.e. the Rangers this year), I still follow them, but definitely do not make time to watch every game. Life is short, spend it on things that can truly impact your life. For the life of me, I cannot understand how anyone cheers for the Knicks, like ever. Life is too short to watch a chronically failing team do nothing.

It's a pretty flimsy analogy. Watching a losing team takes time, money, effort, and intention; winter will continue to happen, or not, with zero regard for whether you've declared your participation over. I mean, sure, you could stop looking at the models and posting in winter threads, but if you're here announcing your dissatisfaction on a daily basis, it would seem you're just as invested as ever. The philosophizing just gets brutal after a while... we love snow so much that we hope it doesn't snow any more so we can be angry about not getting enough snow?

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36 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

I couldn't disagree more.  If you like snow, you want it to snow all winter long.  We're only on this planet so long and every snowfall is a good one that should be appreciated.  I don't care at all about how quickly it melts - I love to track it and watch it snow and enjoy it while it's falling.  I also have followed some bad teams in my day (I'm a Rutgers fan and 30+ year season ticket holder in football and hoops, so I know from failure, lol), but I always want them to win, even if they've done badly for awhile.  It's called loyalty.  

You should try being a US men’s soccer fan. The Rutgers men’s soccer team was once very good. But theUS men, ugh. Losses to Trinidad,Panama, Honduras, Costa Rica, and struggles against Antigua and Barbados over the years. They did beat Spain once a decade ago, and beat Brazil once, 20 years ago....gotta say I’m not so loyal they are hard to watch.

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22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The euro has zero snow for us in the next 10 days...LOL

The pattern is explosive just like the cmc and GFS are.

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26 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's a pretty flimsy analogy. Watching a losing team takes time, money, effort, and intention; winter will continue to happen, or not, with zero regard for whether you've declared your participation over. I mean, sure, you could stop looking at the models and posting in winter threads, but if you're here announcing your dissatisfaction on a daily basis, it would seem you're just as invested as ever. The philosophizing just gets brutal after a while... we love snow so much that we hope it doesn't snow any more so we can be angry about not getting enough snow?

I understand the feeling from both sides. I think in a weird way it come down to getting the recognition for enduring a paltry snow season. A suprise moderate snow event in March that washes away as soon as its over would get the city into the mid teens for seasonal snowfall, but it'd still feel like a bad winter for snow lovers. Stastically itd end up being a run of the mill below avg snow season but it felt much worse.

Its kind of like 97-98, with its 0.5" total until a suprise 5" storm in late March took the record of least snowest season ever away. It was all gone by the afternoon too.  People suffered through the whole winter, they want the credit for it lol.

If something credible comes along everyone will get sucked back in though.

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