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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you can't believe  the long range models past 5 days but it seems some people get suckered in Hook Line and Sinker every time the GFS shows a great pattern in the longer range past 5 -7 days...….which it has been doing many times this winter......

Have you been following the Mjo progression ?

It's now in 8 and going into 1 with a lag. The first 2 weeks looks good but still far out.

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3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

The question I have is----cold relative to "normal" temps which are rising weekly?  Or do you mean just Cold for winter?

that's true - and when is that pesky southeast ridge going to get out of the way ?- and when is the Pacific going to be more favorable? - how about blocking ? any signs of that ?

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

that's true - and when is that pesky southeast ridge going to get out of the way ?- and when is the Pacific going to be more favorable? - how about blocking ? any signs of that ?

I hope not!  Long Live the SouthEast Ridge---isn't a strong pac jet favorable for us in the warmer months?  Please no blocking

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Should get many people out of single digits snow for the season over the next 3 days.  Not gonna be a ton by any means but could see 2 tonight in the 5 boroughs before it’s quikvly washed away and Wednesday has potential.  Right now it looks like southern PA and DC are ground zero but if we get continued building of the ridge the axis of overrunning might align over us and we could see 4 plus before the changeover 

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9 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Anthony, I used to be a snow person just like you, no one enjoyed a storm and the cold as much as I did(although I wasn't/still am not)as knowledgeable as you.  I'm a little bit older now---snow is a major pain in rear---for many reasons.  And dangerous as well.  I love the warmer weather that allows all to go outside and enjoy.  Just my two cents

I still like the snow but it's clear this year is a dud, and March snows generally are slushy, heavy gunk. I'm older too, but I don't feel happy seeing winters getting milder. The solution though is pretty easy for you; since retirement is tough to do in this area unless you are wealthy, you need only move south a bit, and snow will almost never be a factor. OTOH, there's no need to drive on the few snowy days we get if one is retired ( and yes, even in the snowiest winters, we are mostly talking about a few days ) so there's that.

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

I still like the snow but it's clear this year is a dud, and March snows generally are slushy, heavy gunk. I'm older too, but I don't feel happy seeing winters getting milder. The solution though is pretty easy for you; since retirement is tough to do in this area unless you are wealthy, you need only move south a bit, and snow will almost never be a factor. OTOH, there's no need to drive on the few snowy days we get if one is retired ( and yes, even in the snowiest winters, we are mostly talking about a few days ) so there's that.

You have suggested I move more than once---subtle you aint

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

I agree with your statement in principle---however I am on LI--Winter Storms in Early March are unusual here, save for the last 15 years or so

Almost never had them to any extent when I was younger; March 1st was time for flounder fishing. Boat was in the water and ready to go.

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I just think if you are miserable with the cold why put up with it? You may have other reasons I assume.

I'm really not that miserable--at least I don't think so--its just that I much prefer warmer weather.  I enjoy all of the seasons for what they are and what they represent, just tolerance for winter is not what it once was

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

I'm really not that miserable--at least I don't think so--its just that I much prefer warmer weather.  I enjoy all of the seasons for what they are and what they represent, just tolerance for winter is not what it once was

Winter is hard on an older body, no question. But in my line of work I meet people who actually get seasonal affective disorder, and a snowy day is a mental catastrophe for some of them. They can't move for financial reasons.

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9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

there goes Snow88's argument out the window :poster_oops:

The EPS has a higher amplitude, but it has been performing very badly on the MJO. The consensus of the guidance favors considerable time near lower amplitudes. Until the EPS does better, it makes sense to lean toward the consensus.

Finally, the post-split polar vortex is very strong. That will favor a general continuation of AO+ conditions.

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Winter is hard on an older body, no question. But in my line of work I meet people who actually get seasonal affective disorder, and a snowy day is a mental catastrophe for some of them. They can't move for financial reasons.

I'm not quite ready for the glue factory---its a mental thing--that's all

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Let’s not forget March 92 was fairly snowy.  I’m sure nobody expected that at the time.  Speaking of March 92.  Tonight’s storm is a fairly close analog to that but it’s 50-75 miles more north 

Those two storms were really out of left field and a shock. I remember I think Al Roker grinning and shrugging after one of them ( remember the general vibe is anti-snow on the networks, was then and still is )

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Let’s not forget March 92 was fairly snowy.  I’m sure nobody expected that at the time.  Speaking of March 92.  Tonight’s storm is a fairly close analog to that but it’s 50-75 miles more north 

I must clarify---When I speak of growing up, I'm referring to the 1970's and 1980's.  Other people have put up informative graphs indicating how little snow we received compared to recently

 

 

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As I get older, I am experiencing more the benefits of it not snowing (no travel headaches, lower risk of accident and injury, no forced days off and no loss of income, etc).  I also can't tolerate cold as much as I used to.  I hate temps in the teens and below.  Can't stand it anymore now I am in my mid 40s. 

However, I am still a weenie at heart and if given a blizzard on the weekend with temps in the mid 20s, I will say BRING IT ON! 

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1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

March was Spring growing up---Snow was rare

It was still blustery and miserable on the bay, you needed a good set of insulated overalls;  but it wasn't snowy. After the freak April 82 storm, the fish all moved into the shallow waters of the bay to take advantage of the sunshine ( yeah, I been around awhile ).

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Just now, White Gorilla said:

As I get older, I am experiencing more the benefits of it not snowing (no travel headaches, lower risk of accident and injury, no forced days off and no loss of income, etc).  I also can't tolerate cold as much as I used to.  I hate temps in the teens and below.  Can't stand it anymore now I am in my mid 40s. 

However, I am still a weenie at heart and if given a blizzard on the weekend with temps in the mid 20s, I will say BRING IT ON! 

I agree with the sentiment of this!!!  A blizzard is fun!!  just want it on a Saturday and everyone is home and safe

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

It was still blustery and miserable on the bay, you needed a good set of insulated overalls;  but it wasn't snowy. After the freak April 82 storm, the fish all moved into the shallow waters of the bay to take advantage of the sunshine ( yeah, I been around awhile ).

oh yes---35 degrees and rain occurred quite often, but snow was rare---wasn't shorts and t shirt weather

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2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I'm not quite ready for the glue factory---its a mental thing--that's all

I too have thought, wouldn't it be nice to be somewhere fishing during the long winter months? Even when it doesn't snow, the water is frigid and the fish move far offshore, too far for my tastes.

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March is a crapshoot as of now.  February sort of followed the trend we’ve seen over the years where Pacific problems that manifest in early to mid December often will abate for a time in January and then come back in February.  I expressed this concern in mid January long before the models showed the sudden reversal to warm that the tendency many years is for whatever Pacific setup you see in early December to often come back in February after going away for a time in January.  It even happens in good years like 2000-2001.  93-94 even saw it.  The GOA vortex was a big problem 12/1-12/20 1993 and after 2/12 it came right back and winter aside from a brief stretch in mid march was over.  Also, in a small sample size positive or near positive SOI Decembers have had a tendency to be mild in late February and March.  

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